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what it is
Thermon sells the heating systems, controls, and services factories use when pipes, tanks, and processes cannot afford to get cold.
how it gets paid
Last year Thermon Hold made $498M in revenue. heat trace systems was the main engine at $189M, or 38% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.7% last year. EDGAR data in your prompt showed latest-quarter revenue up 163% vs. prior year and EPS up 131%.
what just happened
The supplied latest quarter showed $388M in revenue and $1.27 EPS, which is huge against Thermon's $498M annual revenue base.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
22.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$1.57 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
What they do
Thermon sells the heating systems, controls, and services factories use when pipes, tanks, and processes cannot afford to get cold.
This is a boring business in the best way. Thermon sells into complex industrial sites where failure is expensive, and its backlog was $251.3 million at September 30, 2025, against annual revenue of $498 million. Backlog (orders already booked) → future sales already queued → so you are not relying on hope alone.
How they make money
$498M
annual revenue · their business grew +0.7% last year
heat trace systems
$189M
+2.0%
precision boilers
$90M
+1.0%
temporary power solutions
$55M
+4.0%
tubing bundles
$70M
1.0%
services and software
$94M
+6.0%
The products that matter
heat tracing and maintenance
Heat Trace & MRO
~$300M · about 60% of revenue
this is still the center of gravity at roughly $300M. It keeps industrial pipes and facilities operating in harsh conditions, and it is why oil and gas spending still matters so much to your results.
core cash engine
project-based industrial installs
Large Projects
~$150M · about 30% of revenue
this bucket contributes about $150M and was flat last year. It adds scale, but it also makes revenue lumpier because project timing can move numbers around quarter to quarter.
lumpy revenue
precision heating for new markets
Data Center & Other
~$48M · about 10% of revenue
this roughly $48M bucket is the option value in the story. Management keeps pointing to data centers, but the company still does not break that revenue out, so you are buying the narrative before you get the clean segment proof.
show-me segment
Key numbers
$251.3M
order backlog
Backlog means signed work not yet booked as revenue, so about half a year's sales were already lined up as of September 30, 2025.
20.4%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business, and 20.4% is strong for an industrial supplier.
22.0x
trailing p/e
P/E means how many dollars you pay for one dollar of earnings, and 22 times is not cheap for 5.0% historical sales growth.
$142M
long-term debt
Debt equals future claims on cash, but $142 million is only 8% of capital, which keeps the balance sheet from becoming the story.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $142M (8% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for THR right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
The supplied latest quarter showed $388M in revenue and $1.27 EPS, which is huge against Thermon's $498M annual revenue base.
EDGAR data in your prompt showed latest-quarter revenue up 163% vs. prior year and EPS up 131%. Gross margin was 45.8%, so the quiet part is simple: Thermon is converting more sales into real profit, not just shipping more metal.
$388M
revenue
$1.27
eps
45.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
45.8% gross margin mattered most because margin is the filter between more sales and more earnings, and Thermon kept nearly 46 cents of each revenue dollar before overhead.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is oil and gas capex exposure hiding inside a growth story.
med
Oil and gas spending still drives the bus
More than 60% of revenue is tied to oil and gas and chemical capital spending. If those budgets roll over, Thermon feels it directly. This is not abstract macro talk. It is customer capex showing up in your sales line.
Prior cycles saw revenue fall more than 15%. A similar downturn would hit the core business before the newer growth pockets are big enough to offset it.
med
The data center pivot is still mostly narrative
Management points to data centers, but the company does not break out that revenue. The current data center and other bucket is only about $48M, or roughly 10% of sales, and you cannot cleanly separate the new story from the miscellaneous one.
If disclosure stays thin and growth slows back toward the 0.7% pace of last year, the market stops treating this as a transition story and starts treating it as a cyclical supplier again.
med
Project timing can make results look cleaner than they are
About 30% of revenue comes from large projects. That part of the business is useful, but it is lumpy. A delayed project can distort a quarter even when the long-run demand picture has not broken.
That helps explain the 40/100 predictability score. If you own THR, expect noisier quarters than the headline multiple suggests.
med
Capital allocation still matters from here
Management has cited M&A as part of the growth plan. With $142M in long-term debt and balance sheet room, the company has the capacity to do deals. Capacity is not the same thing as discipline.
A weak acquisition would not break the balance sheet. It would break the cleaner growth narrative investors are starting to underwrite.
A 15% drop in energy-related capex would pressure the revenue base hard because more than 60% of sales still come from those end markets.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
next report
Q4 needs to validate the $526M full-year guide
Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $526M. The next report needs to confirm that the Q3 strength was not just one clean quarter arriving at the same time.
disclosure
Any clean breakout of data center revenue
Right now the market is being asked to believe in a pivot without a separate line item. If management starts quantifying that business, the story gets much easier to underwrite.
momentum
A stock up 32.8% in a month has to earn it again
That kind of move pulls future optimism forward. If bookings or margin momentum cool, the stock does not need bad news to pull back. It just needs less good news.
expectations
Q4 EPS against the $0.56 consensus mark
The estimate for the quarter ending March 2026 is $0.56 EPS. That is close enough to the recent $0.55 print that even a small miss will get interpreted as momentum cooling.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
40 / 100
this score says quarterly numbers can move around more than you want. in human-speak, analysts do not see this as a smooth and easy model.
risk rank
1
risk rank 1 means the balance sheet and business quality screen safer than most stocks. That lowers blow-up risk. It does not remove cycle risk.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for THR is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$38
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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