XVARY Composite Score
65
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Target sells groceries, clothes, home goods, and basics through nearly 2,000 U.S. discount stores and its website.
How it gets paid
Last year Target made $104.8B in revenue. Food was the main engine at $24.1B, or 23% of sales.
Why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.7% last year. The 2.7% comp decline matters most because it tells you the problem is traffic and demand.
What just happened
Target posted $1.78 in adjusted EPS, beating estimates by a penny, even as revenue fell 1.5% to $25.27B.
At a Glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
14.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
17.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 65/100 — average
What They Do
Target sells groceries, clothes, home goods, and basics through nearly 2,000 U.S. discount stores and its website.
Target wins because your weekly trip can cover food, detergent, kids' clothes, and a throw pillow in one stop. That matters across 1,978 stores and a digital business that still grew 2.4% while store sales fell 3.8%. Scale → buying power with suppliers → Target can stay cheap enough to keep you in the cart.
How They Make Money
$104.8B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.7% last year
Food
$24.1B
Household essentials
$18.9B
Home
$16.8B
Apparel
$16.8B
Hardlines
$15.7B
Beauty
$12.6B
The Products That Matter
Physical retail footprint
Store Network
1,978 stores
this is still the center of gravity. nearly two thousand stores give Target national reach, but store comp sales also fell 3.8% in the latest quarter.
scale
Online and pickup demand
Digital Sales
+2.4% comp growth
digital sales grew 2.4%, which is the right direction. it just was not enough to offset weaker store traffic.
growing
Owned store asset base
Owned Real Estate
1,538 owned stores
owning 1,538 locations gives you more control over occupancy costs and makes the balance sheet sturdier than a pure lease story.
asset support
Key Numbers
17.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money put into the business → so what: Target still turns investment into solid profit even during a sales slump.
14.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with past 12 months of earnings → so what: you are not paying a luxury price for a retailer with flat-to-down sales.
4.5%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to you each year relative to the stock price → so what: the income is real while you wait for the turnaround to prove itself.
$15.4B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: at 25% of capital, debt looks contained, so the balance sheet is not the main problem.
Financial Health
A
Strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $15.4B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.5% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 26% — $0.26 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in TGT 3 years ago → it's now worth $7360.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Target posted $1.78 in adjusted EPS, beating estimates by a penny, even as revenue fell 1.5% to $25.27B.
The quarter was a classic Target split screen. Comparable sales fell 2.7% because store sales dropped 3.8%, while digital sales rose 2.4%.
$25.27B
revenue
$1.78
eps
2.7%
comp sales
the number that mattered
The 2.7% comp decline matters most because it tells you the problem is traffic and demand, not just accounting noise.
-
Revenues of $25.27 billion were roughly $200 million below the consensus and down 1.5% from a year ago.
-
Compsales dropped 2.7%, made up of a 3.8% dip in store sales and a 2.4% gain in digital sales.
-
Conversely, adjusted earnings per share clocked in at $1.78, a penny ahead of our expectations.
-
That figure was down from the year-earlier number of $1.85.still, it appears target is focusing on offering its customers the best value, which means it does not aim to have the lowest prices on its merchandise. for the fiscal year as a whole, we now look for a top line of $104.79 billion, translating to share earnings of $7.30.
-
Our fresh estimates depict decreases of $300 million and a nickel, respectively.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is continued store traffic weakness at a 3.3% margin.
Med
Traffic stays soft
Comp sales fell 2.7% in the latest quarter, driven by a 3.8% drop in store sales. For a chain with 1,978 stores, that is the number that hits first.
If traffic does not stabilize, another year below the current $104.8B revenue base becomes very plausible.
Med
Margin compression
Quarterly margin was 3.5% and full-year net margin was 3.3%. That leaves very little room for heavier markdowns, freight costs, or wage pressure.
When you only keep about 3 cents on the dollar, small cost mistakes can do outsized damage to EPS.
Med
The stock stays cheap for a reason
Target trades at 14x earnings with a 4.5% yield, but institutions have been net sellers for three straight quarters and the technical score sits in the bottom 5%.
Cheap stocks can stay cheap when estimates keep moving down. That is how a value case turns into a value trap.
With a 3.3% net margin, this is not a story where you can shrug off a few weak quarters. The business is large and financially solid. The cushion is still thin.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Comp sales
Target just posted a 2.7% comp decline. If that number does not improve, the whole recovery pitch gets thinner.
Trend
Store vs. digital split
Store sales fell 3.8% while digital rose 2.4%. You want that gap narrowing, not widening.
Calendar
Next earnings print
Watch whether revenue holds near the $25.3B quarterly level and whether margin stays around 3.5%.
Risk
Institutional conviction
Net selling for three straight quarters is not fatal. It is a sign big money still wants more proof.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a roulette wheel either.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the chart has been one of the weaker setups in the market.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
earnings are less stable than you would expect from a mature retailer. Expect more variance than the dividend story implies.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 675 buyers vs. 927 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$82
$177
$102
Current price
$130
Target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $210 (+105% · 22% ann'l return)
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