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what it is
Terns is a biotech company trying to turn early drug programs into treatments for liver disease and obesity.
how it gets paid
Last year Terns Pharma made n/a in revenue. TERN-101 was the main engine at $0M, or 25% of sales.
what just happened
Terns posted -$0.79 EPS while TTM revenue stayed at $0M.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
-$1.12 fy2024 eps est
$1M fy2021 rev est
1.4 beta
~$5B market cap
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Terns is a biotech company trying to turn early drug programs into treatments for liver disease and obesity.
No moat yet. You are buying 4 programs, and 3 are still in Phase I or Phase IIa. That is optionality, not dominance. If one program reaches later-stage data, I change my view.
How they make money
n/a
annual revenue
TERN-101
$0M
TERN-201
$0M
TERN-501
$0M
TERN-601
$0M
The products that matter
blood cancer drug candidate
TERN-701
Phase 1/2 · $4.8B target market
It is the lead asset in a Phase 1/2 trial for chronic myeloid leukemia, and the current ~$5B equity story rests mostly on how this program develops.
the main bet
oral obesity drug candidate
TERN-601
partnered out
This once-daily oral GLP-1 agonist was partnered out as the company refocused on oncology, which means the market is paying for TERN-701 first and treating everything else as background noise.
optionality, not the thesis
capital structure
public offering
$400M plus $60M option
For a company with roughly $5B of market value and no real operating revenue, financing is part of the product story because it decides how much of the upside you actually keep.
watch the dilution
Key numbers
$5B
market cap
You are paying about $5B for a company with no product revenue. That is a pure clinical bet.
$0M
TTM revenue
Zero revenue means the stock moves on trial data, not on sales trends. There is no business cushion here.
59
employees
59 people are carrying the whole pipeline. That is lean, but one missed program matters fast.
1.4
beta
A beta of 1.4 means the stock moves more than the market. You get extra bounce and extra pain.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $1M (0% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for TERN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Terns posted -$0.79 EPS while TTM revenue stayed at $0M.
The company is still pre-revenue. That means the loss is funding the pipeline, not a customer base.
$0.0M
revenue
-$0.79
eps
n/a
n/a
latest EPS
The -$0.79 EPS matters because it shows the company is still paying for trials with no product sales.
source: SEC filing and Yahoo Finance
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is clinical failure or underwhelming data for TERN-701. At a ~$5B market cap and with no real operating revenue to lean on, this stock does not have much else to talk about.
med
TERN-701 could disappoint in Phase 1/2
The lead program is still in early clinical work. If efficacy, durability, or tolerability miss expectations, the main value driver weakens fast.
Impact: the equity story is concentrated in one early-stage asset.
med
Dilution is not theoretical
The company has a planned $400M stock and warrant offering, plus a $60M option. That can strengthen the balance sheet while shrinking each existing shareholder's slice.
Impact: financing helps the company and can still hurt the stock.
med
Single-asset concentration
TERN-601 was partnered out as the company refocused on oncology. That makes the story cleaner, but it also leaves less diversification if TERN-701 stumbles.
Impact: fewer backup paths mean bigger reactions to each data point.
med
Expectations are already elevated
A 52-week range of $2–$48 and a current price of $37.79 tell you optimism has already repriced the stock. Early-stage biotechs get punished when great hopes become merely decent data.
Impact: even "not bad" results can reset a premium biotech valuation.
The combined risk picture is blunt: a ~$5B valuation is sitting on a company with $1M of historical revenue, one main clinical asset, and a planned $400M financing event.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trial calendar
CARDINAL milestones through 2026
This is the main catalyst path. If you own TERN, these readouts matter more than quarterly revenue because there is barely any revenue to discuss.
financing
$400M offering plus $60M option
Watch the final terms, not just the headline. Cash is useful. Dilution math decides how much future upside still belongs to you.
market signal
price stability 5 / 100
That score says the stock is built for sharp moves. Treat calm trading as the exception, not the default.
management narrative
march 2026 investor conferences
These events can reset expectations around TERN-701 and the oncology focus. In a pre-revenue biotech, framing matters because data gaps get filled by narrative.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
above average
risk rank 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — analysts see underperformance risk in the near term.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for TERN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$38
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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