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what it is
Tectonic Therapeutic makes drugs that try to control GPCRs, the cell-signal switches behind many diseases.
how it gets paid
Last year Tectonic Therapeutic made n/a in revenue. TX45 program was the main engine at $0.0M, or 30% of sales.
what just happened
Fourth-quarter EPS came in at -$0.84, and the company still had no revenue number to lean on.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$6.83 fy2024 eps est
1.5 beta
~$625M market cap
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
Tectonic Therapeutic makes drugs that try to control GPCRs, the cell-signal switches behind many diseases.
Its GEODe platform aims at GPCRs, a target class many drugs miss. You are not buying one shot here; you are buying 2 clinical programs, TX45 and TX002100, plus the machine that found them. 51 employees is the whole shop, so the contrast is tiny team versus a huge disease target set.
How they make money
n/a
annual revenue
GEODe platform
$0.0M
TX45 program
$0.0M
TX002100 program
$0.0M
Other research
$0.0M
The products that matter
lead Phase 2 candidate
TX45
top-line data expected in 2026
it is the only asset already in Phase 2, and right now that one timeline carries most of the $625M story.
phase 2
early clinical pipeline asset
TX2100
Phase 1 trial
this is the next option, but it is still in Phase 1. If TX45 stumbles, the company falls back on a much earlier asset base.
phase 1
Key numbers
-$6.83
fy2024 eps est
n/a
fy rev est
n/a
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $0M (0% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for TECX right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Fourth-quarter EPS came in at -$0.84, and the company still had no revenue number to lean on.
Full-year EPS improved from -$18.85 in 2023 to -$6.83 in 2024. That is progress, but it is still a deep loss.
$0.84
eps
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
full-year loss
The big number was the full-year EPS loss of -$6.83. That is better than -$18.85 a year earlier, but it is still a red ink story.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is phase 2 failure for TX45.
med
TX45 misses in Phase 2
The valuation rests mainly on one Phase 2 asset. If TX45 disappoints in either of the ongoing studies, the market is left repricing a $625M company with $0 revenue and a much earlier pipeline.
Impact: this is the binary one. Clinical failure would hit the thesis at its center, not at the edges.
med
cash burn leads to dilution
Operating cash flow was -$60.1M over the last 12 months. Management says cash lasts into 2028, but a company with $0 revenue still funds itself primarily through capital markets.
Impact: even good data can be diluted if new shares arrive before commercialization is in sight.
med
trial timelines slip
Topline data for TX45 is expected in 2026, and the PH-ILD study only began screening in February 2026. In biotech, timelines move. When they do, valuations usually move first and explanations arrive later.
Impact: delay risk stretches the wait for proof while the cash burn continues in the background.
med
the backup plan is still early
TX2100 is in Phase 1. That means the fallback pipeline exists, but it is not close to carrying the valuation on its own if TX45 falters.
Impact: the downside is amplified because the next asset up the ladder is much earlier in development.
With $0 revenue and -$60.1M in trailing operating cash flow, the company has time but not self-funding economics. The stock stays tied to clinical evidence until that changes.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
TX45 APEX top-line data in 2026
This is the main date on the page. One Phase 2 readout can do more to the stock than four ordinary quarters.
trial progress
PH-ILD enrollment and timeline updates
The study began screening in February 2026. From here, the pace of enrollment tells you whether the calendar risk is getting better or worse.
financial
cash burn versus the recent -$60.1M run rate
If operating cash outflow starts accelerating without a matching increase in clinical progress, the dilution debate comes forward.
balance of risk
any signal that financing arrives before data
Cash into 2028 sounds comfortable, but capital raises often happen well before cash hits the wall. The market usually notices the setup before management admits the need.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
55 / 100
in human-speak, the quarterly model is only half the story because trial milestones matter more than precision on near-term losses.
beta
1.5
Beta measures how much a stock tends to move versus the market. At 1.5, TECX has historically moved more than the index. Not a bunker stock.
price stability
5 / 100
That is extremely low. Translation: you are renting volatility while you wait for science.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for TECX is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$21
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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