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what it is
Symbotic builds robots and software that help warehouses move pallets faster with fewer humans doing repetitive work.
how it gets paid
Last year Symbotic made $2.2B in revenue. Systems deployments was the main engine at $1.43B, or 65% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 25.7% last year. Revenue grew 29% vs. prior year, but the market cared more about the earnings miss and the warning that momentum will moderate in fiscal 2026.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $630M, but EPS of $0.02 missed the $0.10 estimate by 80%.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
58.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
93.0% return on capital — a money-printing machine
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
$0.45 fy2026 eps est
What they do
Symbotic builds robots and software that help warehouses move pallets faster with fewer humans doing repetitive work.
Symbotic is already inside big warehouses, and ripping out warehouse automation is like replacing your airport while planes are landing. The company ended fiscal 2025 with 48 systems in operation, double the prior year, which gives you real proof that customers are scaling, not just testing. Richard Cohen also controls 36.1% of the shares, so the person steering the machine has a lot of his own money in it.
How they make money
$2.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +25.7% last year
Systems deployments
$1.43B
Systems software and controls
$0.33B
Installation and integration
$0.22B
Service and support
$0.11B
Other and non-Systems
$0.11B
The products that matter
automates distribution centers
Automated Warehouse Systems
$2.2B revenue · 100% of sales
it's the entire $2.2B business, and that concentration cuts both ways. fiscal 2025 revenue grew 25.7%, but the most recent quarter slowed to 4.2%, so you are underwriting deployment timing more than product demand.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$4.0B
2028 revenue
That estimate implies sales must rise about 82% from today's $2.2B, so the bull case still needs a near-doubling in revenue.
58.1x
trailing p/e
You are paying 58.1 times trailing earnings for a company expected to earn $0.45 in fiscal 2026 after making $1.02 in fiscal 2025.
5.1%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business. Plain English: the core business still loses money before financing and taxes.
93.0%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit generated from money put into the business. So what: the projects that work can be very lucrative once they scale.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- net profit margin 26.1% — keeps 26 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 93% — $0.93 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SYM right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $630M, but EPS of $0.02 missed the $0.10 estimate by 80%.
Revenue grew 29% vs. prior year, but the market cared more about the earnings miss and the warning that momentum will moderate in fiscal 2026. Gross margin was 21.2%, which is decent for hardware-heavy work but still leaves little room for mistakes.
$630M
revenue
$0.02
eps
21.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 80% EPS miss mattered most because it showed revenue growth alone is not enough when the stock is already priced for cleaner execution.
-
symbotic closed out fiscal 2025 with robust financial results. (fiscal year ends september 30th.) revenues climbed 26% vs. prior year while achieving meaningful margin expansion and free cash flow generation.the warehouse automation specialist closed the year with cash exceeding $1.2 billion and a $22.5 billion backlog, positioning it well for sustained growth.
-
the company doubled the number of systems in operation to 48 by the fiscal year’s end.this was achieved by improving the installation process, which resulted in a normalization of costs. meanwhile, machine-learning software for the fulfillment centers has resulted in days with zero manual repositioning of the system.
-
financial momentum will likely moderate in fiscal 2026.
-
this is largely due to the announcement of a next-generation storage system.management indicated that demand may soften until the new offering reaches the market, which is expected around the second quarter of fiscal 2026. while storage density and efficiency are improving, many enhancements relate to the construction process.
-
on-site assembly time is expected to decline by more than 90% due to increased preassembly.this reflects that the need for specialized assembly labor has been the main driver of deployment delays.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
symbotic's risk stack is unusually specific: a $22.5B backlog looks comforting until you remember revenue only shows up when systems get installed, margins hold, and customers do not pause for the next product cycle.
med
deployment delays
Symbotic ended fiscal 2025 with a $22.5B backlog against $2.2B of annual revenue. That sounds great until projects slip. This model recognizes revenue when systems get built and installed, so timing matters almost as much as demand.
If installation cadence slows, revenue can wobble even with a full order book. That's why last quarter's growth cooling to 4.2% mattered.
med
product transition pause
Management said demand may soften until the newer storage system reaches the market around the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Better roadmap. Worse near-term comparison.
A pause before launch would hit the current system's booking pace just as investors are paying 58.1x trailing earnings for continued momentum.
med
margin volatility
Full-year operating margin was 13.5%, but the latest quarter printed -0.8%. That's a reminder that this is still a heavy deployment business, not clean recurring software.
When quarterly margin can swing from solidly positive to negative, the stock can rerate quickly because the valuation already assumes smoother execution from here.
The risk picture is simple: a $22.5B backlog and 48 live systems prove demand, but a single revenue stream, 4.2% recent growth, and a -0.8% quarterly margin prove execution still has sharp edges.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
new storage system launch
management pointed to a release around the second quarter of fiscal 2026. if that slips, the near-term slowdown gets harder to frame as temporary.
metric
backlog conversion
track whether the $22.5B backlog starts showing up as faster revenue recognition. a big backlog is only useful if it keeps becoming revenue.
calendar
fiscal 2026 guidance updates
the company already told you growth will moderate. each guidance update now matters more than the headline backlog number.
trend
install time improvement
on-site assembly time is expected to fall by more than 90%. if that starts showing up in smoother installs, the whole bull case gets more credible.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still like the story despite the volatility.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this stock is more volatile than most. you're buying a fast-moving installer, not a bunker stock.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — price action has been stronger than most names in the coverage universe, even with a 52-week range that runs from $16 to $88.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 186 buyers vs. 125 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$28
$113
$59
current price
$71
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $95 (+60% · 13% ann'l return)
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