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what it is
It sells power tools, hand tools, outdoor equipment, and industrial fastening systems to homeowners, contractors, and factories.
how it gets paid
Last year Stanley B&D made $15.1B in revenue. Power Tools Group was the main engine at $6.2B, or 41% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.5% last year. The number that mattered was the $1.04 EPS print.
what just happened
The last report landed at $1.04 EPS versus a $1.29 estimate, a 19.4% miss.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
16.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 50/100 — below average
What they do
It sells power tools, hand tools, outdoor equipment, and industrial fastening systems to homeowners, contractors, and factories.
This business wins on scale and habit. Tools & Outdoor is 87% of sales, and once your batteries, bits, and storage are in one system, switching is a chore. Stanley Black & Decker also has 48,500 employees and global shelf space, which keeps its brands in front of you when replacement demand shows up.
How they make money
$15.1B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.5% last year
Power Tools Group
$6.2B
Hand Tools
$3.4B
Accessories & Storage
$2.1B
Outdoor Power Equipment
$1.4B
Industrial
$2.0B
The products that matter
tools and access hardware sold at scale
core business
$15.1B revenue · 5.7% net margin
this is the operating story that matters right now. revenue fell 1.5% from a year ago, and a business this size keeping only 5.7% of sales as profit is why the turnaround case still needs proof, not adjectives.
the number that matters
aerospace fasteners and fittings being sold off
CAM business
$1.8B sale price
management agreed to sell consolidated aerospace manufacturing to howmet for $1.8B in cash. the quiet part loud: this matters more for debt reduction than for growth. investors are not asking SWK to get more complicated. they are asking it to get cleaner.
balance-sheet lever
Key numbers
$4.7B
long-term debt
This is 29% of capital. Translation: debt still shapes what management can do and how fast the turnaround can work.
19.0%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit before interest and taxes. So what: the core business still has earning power if cleanup work sticks.
4.4%
dividend yield
You are getting paid to wait, but slow projected dividend growth of 2.5% says management is conserving cash.
16.5x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings means how much you pay for each dollar of past profit. So what: this is cheaper than a growth stock, but not distressed.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $4.7B (29% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.4% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SWK 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,560.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The last report landed at $1.04 EPS versus a $1.29 estimate, a 19.4% miss.
That miss clashes with the longer recovery script. Value Line's quarterly history shows 2025 EPS of $0.75, $1.08, $1.43, and $1.29, so the trend improved, but the latest print still reminded you this turnaround is uneven.
$15.1B
ttm revenue
$1.04
last eps
19.4%
vs estimate
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the $1.04 EPS print, because a turnaround stock that misses by 19.4% loses the benefit of the doubt fast.
-
the company posted earnings of $1.43 a share in the september interim, well above our estimate and the year-ago period, on a relatively flat sales comparison, with price and foreign-currency gains offset by anticipated lower volume.and the bottom line reaped the rewards of gross margin improvement, thanks to leadership’s rapid response to a rather fluid tariffs environment and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. all told, we have pared a dime a share from our 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates, which now stand at $4.55 and $5.80 a share.
-
yet investors do not seem deterred.indeed, despite the recent reduction in our earnings estimates and the wall street consensus for last year and this year, swk stock has traded in a rather tight range over the last three months or so. stanley black & decker has agreed to divest its consolidated aerospace manufacturing (cam) business. the company inked a definitive agreement to sell the division to howmet aerospace for $1.8 billion in cash. cam provides critical fasteners, fittings, and other engineered components for the aerospace and defense industries. the sale of this business is in keeping with the company’s commitment to enhance shareholder value and focus on growing its biggest brands and businesses.
-
the proceeds from the divestiture have been earmarked to pare the company’s debt level.
-
short-term investors would do well to look elsewhere for the time being.based on recent price and earnings momentum, the issue is now ranked to underperform the broader market averages over the coming six to 12 months.
-
however, long-term accounts may wish to consider staking a position here.at the recent quotation, swk stock offers above-average capital appreciation potential through the latter years of this decade. in addition, income-seeking accounts will likely enjoy the issue’s dividend yield, which is more than double that of the average selection under institutional data review.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
SWK does not need a dramatic failure to disappoint you. it just needs weak tool demand, slow margin repair, or a debt story that still looks unfinished after the $1.8B sale closes.
med
construction and factory demand cools further
the company generated $15.1B of revenue last year, and all of it is tied in some way to people building, fixing, or outfitting things. when those end markets slow, volume pressure shows up fast.
revenue already fell 1.5% from a year ago. another soft demand year would make the recovery case look delayed, not early.
med
margin repair stalls
annual net margin is 5.7%, but the latest quarter printed 2.7%. that's the contrast. if pricing weakens or cost control slips, the low multiple stops looking like an opportunity and starts looking like a warning.
thin margins leave less room to support the 4.4% dividend, invest in the business, and reduce debt at the same time.
med
the CAM sale does not translate into visible deleveraging
management plans to use the $1.8B CAM proceeds to reduce debt. good. long-term debt still sits at $4.7B, so investors will notice if the balance sheet looks mostly unchanged after the deal closes.
you would be left with the same cyclical exposure, the same balance-sheet pressure, and one less asset.
med
earnings stay hard to predict
earnings predictability is 30 / 100. in plain english: your quarterly numbers are still jumpy, and stocks with jumpy earnings rarely get the benefit of the doubt.
when predictability is low, value can stay trapped even if the headline p/e looks reasonable.
a slowdown in end markets hits the full $15.1B revenue base, while $4.7B of long-term debt means management does not get many free mistakes.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
debt paydown after the CAM sale
$1.8B of proceeds against $4.7B of long-term debt is the cleanest number line on the page. if debt barely moves, the market will notice immediately.
trend
margin rebuild from 2.7%
the latest quarter ran at a 2.7% margin versus a 5.7% annual net margin. you want that gap closing. if 2.7% starts looking normal, the thesis breaks.
calendar
the next earnings report
flat recent sales were survivable because margins improved in spots. the next print needs to show that the repair story is still moving and not just being narrated.
risk
construction and industrial demand
tool demand follows activity in job sites, workshops, and factories. this is still a cyclical business, no matter how familiar the brands are.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think SWK is more likely to lag than lead over the next six to 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-road safety. not fragile, not defensive.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is not broken, but it is not sending an all-clear either.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
quarterly results have been inconsistent, which helps explain why the stock still trades like a prove-it story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
328 buyers vs. 317 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$52
$122
$75
current price
$87
target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $195 (+160% · 29% ann'l return)
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