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what it is
Supernus sells brain and nervous-system drugs, then tries to turn niche treatments into steady prescription revenue.
how it gets paid
Last year Supernus Pharma made $719M in revenue. ADHD franchise was the main engine at $252M, or 35% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.6% last year. The number that mattered was -$0.61 EPS, because $507M of revenue does not help much if it still does not reach shareholders.
what just happened
EPS came in at -$0.61, even as revenue hit $507M.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.1% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$1.32 fy2024 eps est
$662M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
Supernus sells brain and nervous-system drugs, then tries to turn niche treatments into steady prescription revenue.
This is a CNS drug shop with a broader bench than most small biotechs. It has approved products across ADHD, Parkinson's, epilepsy, migraine, dystonia, and postpartum depression, plus 674 employees building and selling them. Diversification → not relying on one pill → so what: if one launch stalls, your whole thesis does not implode overnight.
How they make money
$719M
annual revenue · their business grew +8.6% last year
ADHD franchise
$252M
Parkinson's portfolio
$194M
Neurology base business
$144M
Women's health and new launches
$72M
Other product revenue
$57M
The products that matter
parkinson's launch product
ONAPGO
2026 guidance pressure point
Management said supply disruption halted new patient starts. When your company is guiding to $840M–$870M in 2026 revenue, a launch interruption earns front-row status.
launch execution
adhd treatment
Qelbree
existing growth has to carry more weight
We do not have product-level sales in this snapshot, so the honest read is simple: with Q4 operating margin at -1.9%, growth products have to do more than grow. They have to help rebuild profit.
profit support
legacy epilepsy portfolio
Oxtellar and Trokendi
base revenue support
These older CNS products help support the current $719M revenue base. The problem is that a stable base business still left Q4 operating margin at -1.9%.
base business
Key numbers
$31M
long-term debt
That is just 1% of capital. Plain English: the balance sheet is light. So what: Supernus has room to survive launch mistakes.
$1.32
2024 EPS est.
Expected earnings are $1.32 a share versus trailing EPS of -$3.20 from Yahoo Finance. Plain English: the market is pricing a rebound, not current reality.
8.7%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: even with $719M in annual revenue, Supernus still lost money on operations.
7.1%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money invested in the business → so what: this is decent, but not high enough yet to call the model elite.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $31M (1% of capital)
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SUPN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
EPS came in at -$0.61, even as revenue hit $507M.
Revenue jumped 164% vs. prior year, but the bottom line stayed negative. That gap says integration, launch costs, or mix are still eating the gross dollars.
$507M
revenue
$0.61
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was -$0.61 EPS, because $507M of quarterly revenue does not help much if it still does not reach shareholders.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is ONAPGO supply disruption during a year that already assumes 17–21% revenue growth.
med
ONAPGO supply execution
Management said supply issues halted new patient starts. That hits the clearest near-term growth lever while the company is guiding to $840M–$870M in 2026 revenue.
Impact: if the launch stays constrained, the most obvious source of incremental revenue gets delayed while expectations stay in place.
med
margin compression that is no longer theoretical
Operating margin fell 23 percentage points over five years and landed at -1.9% in Q4. That is not a debate about valuation. That is the income statement telling you the model is under pressure.
Impact: the $140M–$170M adjusted operating earnings target gets harder to trust if costs keep outrunning sales.
med
guidance credibility
The 2026 revenue range sits well above the current $719M base. Asking investors to price in sharp acceleration is fine. Missing it changes the whole multiple discussion.
Impact: even a cut toward the low end would change how investors read a 19.24x forward p/e on an execution story.
med
earnings volatility
A 35/100 earnings predictability score means this is more prone to estimate misses and uneven quarters than a steady compounder.
Impact: if you own SUPN, expect the narrative to move quarter to quarter. That usually means less valuation forgiveness when a print disappoints.
A launch disruption and a -1.9% Q4 operating margin put the full $840M–$870M 2026 revenue story under harsher scrutiny.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
launch risk
Did ONAPGO new patient starts resume
This is the cleanest read on whether the supply problem was temporary or the first crack in the 2026 growth story.
revenue path
Track the road to $840M–$870M
That range implies roughly 17–21% growth from the current $719M base. You do not need a model to know that is a meaningful jump.
profit trend
Watch whether operating margin climbs back above zero
Q4 came in at -1.9%. A turnaround with negative operating margin is still a plan, not a result.
next report
The next earnings print has to connect the dots
You want three things in one place: launch recovery, stable guidance, and proof that the $140M–$170M operating earnings target still fits reality.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see this as a smooth earnings story.
risk rank
2
That means safer than roughly 80% of stocks on the balance-sheet side. It does not mean the operating story is calm.
price stability
55 / 100
Middle of the road. Not a bunker stock, not a rollercoaster, but earnings noise still matters.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for SUPN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$47
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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