Start here if you're new
what it is
StubHub runs websites and apps where people buy and resell tickets for sports, concerts, theater, and festivals.
how it gets paid
Last year Stubhub made $1.7B in revenue. North America marketplace was the main engine at $1.16B, or 68% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.4% last year. The company posted a huge quarterly loss right after the IPO period.
what just happened
Revenue hit $1.3B, but EPS cratered to -$4.71 and badly missed expectations.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
11.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$1.25 fy2028 eps est
$3B fy2028 rev est
xvary composite: 40/100 — below average
What they do
StubHub runs websites and apps where people buy and resell tickets for sports, concerts, theater, and festivals.
Scale matters here. StubHub says it served buyers in over 200 countries, 30 languages, and 45 currencies, which means your ticket finds more shoppers and your search finds more inventory. Marketplace liquidity (lots of buyers and sellers at once) → easier matching → so what: that keeps people on the platform when timing matters.
How they make money
$1.7B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.4% last year
North America marketplace
$1.16B
North America seller services
$0.30B
International marketplace
$0.17B
International seller services
$0.07B
The products that matter
secondary ticket resale marketplace
StubHub Marketplace
$9.2B gross sales
it moved $9.2B of tickets last year. That is real scale. Your question is whether that scale can ever look like a durable earnings model instead of a very busy toll booth.
core platform
buyer and seller transaction fees
Transaction Fees
$1.4B · 82.4% of shown revenue
fees are the business. This line produced $1.4B here, but it fell 1.4% while gross sales hit $9.2B. Volume up, fee line soft is not the combination you want.
main monetization line
miscellaneous marketplace revenue
Other Revenue
$0.3B · 17.6% of shown revenue
this bucket added $0.3B and stayed flat. That matters because a stagnant secondary line leaves even more pressure on transaction fees to do the heavy lifting.
supporting line
Key numbers
$24
18-month target
The published 18-month target sits 89% above $12.73. Plain English: the rebound case needs investors to believe the post-IPO mess is temporary.
77.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: the core operation looked deeply unprofitable even though net margin showed 13.4%.
$1.7B
long-term debt
Debt equals roughly one full year of revenue. That limits how much room management has if ticket demand or pricing slips.
11.1x
trailing p/e
Trailing P/E → stock price compared with past earnings → so what: the multiple looks cheap only if you trust those earnings are real and repeatable.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- long-term debt $1.7B (29% of capital)
- net profit margin 13.4% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for STUB right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $1.3B, but EPS cratered to -$4.71 and badly missed expectations.
The company posted a huge quarterly loss right after the IPO period, and reported annual revenue of $1.7B, down 1.4% vs. prior year. Quiet part out loud: volume is there, clean profit still is not.
$1.3B
revenue
$4.71
eps
1.4%
annual revenue growth
the number that mattered
EPS of -$4.71 mattered most because it shows the post-IPO accounting and cost picture overwhelmed a quarter that still produced $1.3B in revenue.
-
after a little over 25 years, the firm completed its initial public offering on september 16, 2025.
-
about 10% of the ownership was sold to the public at a price of $23.50.
-
net proceeds of $758 million were used to reduce high cost debt.
-
the stock has not performed well after its listing on the new york stock exchange and has fallen more than 45%.disappointing results and a lack of a near-term earnings outlook in its first quarter of reporting as a public company did not sit well with investors.
-
tax-loss selling may also have played a role toward the end of the calendar year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
StubHub does not have the luxury of vague risks. The business just came public, the stock is already down roughly 46% from the IPO, and the first full-year guide only called for $10B in gross merchandise sales. Here is what actually matters.
high
weak 2026 gross merchandise sales guidance
Management's midpoint for 2026 gross merchandise sales is $10B. That is only 9% above last year's $9.2B, and the market clearly wanted a bigger step after the IPO.
If volume growth starts to disappoint right after listing, investors stop treating this as a temporary reset and start treating it as a lower-quality marketplace.
high
monetization is softer than the raw volume suggests
Transaction-fee revenue was $1.4B and fell 1.4% even with $9.2B of marketplace activity. That contrast matters more than the top-line activity number.
If fees stay under pressure, you get more tickets sold without the earnings power that is supposed to come with scale.
med
post-IPO share overhang
The insider lock-up ends on march 16, 2026. That creates a potential overhang of roughly $900M in shares becoming sellable.
New supply can keep pressure on a stock already trading far below its $23.50 IPO price. That matters even if the business itself does nothing new.
med
the one-time-charge explanation has an expiration date
Management says the $1.9B loss was driven by IPO accounting items. Fine. The next few quarters need to show the normalized business is much cleaner than the headline result.
If losses still look ugly after the IPO noise fades, the market stops granting the benefit of the doubt and reprices the whole story lower.
What would change our mind: beat the $10B gross merchandise sales guide, stabilize fee monetization, and make the post-IPO earnings picture look normal. If not, this stays a prove-it stock.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
gross merchandise sales
2026 guidance points to $10B versus $9.2B last year. If that number starts slipping, the whole rebound case shrinks fast.
calendar
lock-up expiration
march 16, 2026. Early holders get the option to sell, and newly public stocks rarely ignore that kind of supply event.
trend
fee monetization
Transaction-fee revenue was $1.4B and fell 1.4%. Here is the thing: volume can rise all day, but if fees do not cooperate, you do not get the scale story you were promised.
risk
post-IPO earnings cleanup
Management blamed the $1.9B loss on IPO accounting charges. The next report needs to make that look temporary, not convenient.
Analyst rankings
street setup
reset
The first public-company guide did the damage. $10B of 2026 gross merchandise sales landed below expectations. In human-speak, analysts wanted a cleaner growth story than the company gave them.
long-term earnings view
$1.25
Analysts still model $1.25 in fy2028 EPS. That tells you the street has not abandoned the turnaround. It tells you the turnaround is carrying most of the thesis.
valuation spread
$17–$30
That range is wide because conviction is not. Same company, same ticket marketplace, very different views on what normalized earnings should look like.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
92 buyers vs. 0 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$30
$13
current price
$24
target midpoint · +85% from current · 3-5yr high: $30 (+135% · 23% ann'l return)
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