XVARY Composite Score
67
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Steel Dynamics melts scrap into steel, fabricates building parts, and sells into construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
How it gets paid
Last year Steel Dynamics made $18.2B in revenue. hot-rolled steel was the main engine at $5.8B, or 32% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.6% last year. The 24.48% earnings miss matters most because this stock is already pricing in a recovery.
What just happened
Steel Dynamics posted $1.82 in quarterly EPS, missing the $2.41 estimate by 24.48%.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
24.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 67/100 — average
What They Do
Steel Dynamics melts scrap into steel, fabricates building parts, and sells into construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
Steel is usually a commodity. Plain English: one ton looks a lot like another ton. So what: the winner is the low-cost operator that can keep margins when prices wobble. Steel Dynamics still posted a 16.5% operating margin and 14.5% return on capital, with long-term debt at just 13% of capital.
How They Make Money
$18.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.6% last year
hot-rolled steel
$5.8B
+4.0%
flat-rolled coated and cold-rolled steel
$4.7B
+3.0%
long products and structural steel
$3.6B
+2.0%
steel fabrication
$2.1B
+6.0%
metals recycling and ferrous resources
$2.0B
+1.0%
The Products That Matter
Core steel manufacturing business
Steel Products
$18.2B revenue
This is one of those pages where the data provider gives you the headline and hides the mix. What we know is simple: almost everything here flows back to steel demand, steel pricing, and execution. When the cycle improves, that concentration helps. When it weakens, there is nowhere to hide.
entire story
Key Numbers
0.5%
projected eps growth
Past earnings grew 27.5% annually. The forecast says 0.5% ahead. Plain English: the easy growth already happened.
24.0x
trailing p/e
That is a full price for a cyclical steel business, especially with the 18-month target sitting below today's stock price.
16.5%
operating margin
Margin means profit left after running the business. Plain English: STLD keeps 16.5 cents from each sales dollar before interest and taxes.
$4.2B
long-term debt
Debt equals future obligations. Plain English: the balance sheet is not reckless, because that debt is only 13% of capital.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $4.2B (13% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.0% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 21% — $0.21 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in STLD 3 years ago → it's now worth $16190.
The index would have given you $13880.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Steel Dynamics posted $1.82 in quarterly EPS, missing the $2.41 estimate by 24.48%.
Annual 2025 EPS fell to $7.99 from $9.84 in 2024. Revenue still reached $18.2B, up 3.6%, so the issue was not sales volume alone. It was profitability.
$4.3B
revenue
$1.82
eps
13.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 24.48% earnings miss matters most because this stock is already pricing in a recovery, with 2026 EPS estimated at $13.00.
-
Steel dynamic’s stock price has been surging over the past six months.
-
It is probable that the share price is benefiting from a few factors.for one, we expect the steel industry’s business cycle to begin reversing in the years ahead, after a threeyear period of suppressed market activity following the post-pandemic boom. investors responded positively to management’s discussion of the operating outlook in its 2025 fourth-quarter earnings call, bidding the stock higher.
-
Indeed, emerging u.s. tariff policy has provided another tailwind for the domestic steel producer, with steel tariffs currently set at 50%, a force which will shape the company’s outlook as global trade policy continues to shift.additionally, we have seen a market-wide rotation out of mega-cap technology stocks over the past few months, into value and cyclical sectors like steel. on top of these two factors, steel dynamics has been repurchasing shares throughout the past year, which supports the stock price.
-
Despite the strong stock performance, steel dynamics’ 2025 fourth quarter was softer than expected.
-
Realized steel prices fell and shipments were seasonally lower, while maintenance outages also reduced output.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
STLD does not need a recession to disappoint you. It just needs lower realized steel prices, softer shipments, or a recovery that arrives later than the stock expects.
High
Realized steel prices keep falling
Management already flagged lower realized steel prices in the latest quarter. In a commodity business, price is the lever that hits profit fastest.
Most of the $18.2B revenue base is exposed to steel pricing, and the latest quarter's margin was only 6.5%
High
Shipments soften beyond seasonality
The company said shipments were seasonally lower. If end-market demand weakens beyond that, revenue stalls even before pricing gets worse.
That pressure would hit the same $18.2B revenue engine the market expects to reach $20B
Med
Maintenance outages and operating hiccups
Maintenance outages reduced output in the latest quarter. That is not a thesis-breaker by itself, but it matters when margins are already compressing.
Lower output means less absorption of fixed costs, which makes a 6.5% margin harder to defend
Med
Tariff support fades or gets repriced
Steel tariffs are set at 50%, and that has helped the domestic steel trade. If policy support weakens, sentiment and pricing power cool quickly.
This is a policy risk layered on top of a business with just 40 / 100 earnings predictability
Steel prices, shipments, and tariff policy all feed the same machine. If margin stays stuck near 6.5% or revenue misses the $20B recovery expectation, the cheap forward-multiple story weakens fast.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
The number
Margin recovery from 6.5%
The last quarter's 6.5% margin is the cleanest read on whether pricing pressure is easing or getting worse. If you track one number, track that one.
Earnings
Whether EPS actually rebounds toward $13.00
The stock looks much cheaper on forward earnings than trailing earnings. Here is the catch: that only works if the rebound estimate lands.
Risk
Realized steel prices
Management already told you prices fell. If that continues, the recovery thesis gets thinner in a hurry.
Flow
Whether institutional selling stops
Three straight quarters of net selling is not fatal. It does tell you big money has not fully bought the rebound story yet.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they think the rebound trade still has room.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the middle of the pack. not a bunker stock and not a pure rollercoaster.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is constructive, but not sending a special signal beyond the broader cyclical move.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings are harder to model here because steel pricing and utilization can swing faster than the revenue line.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 349 buyers vs. 395 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$109
$239
$192
Current price
$174
Target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $300 (+55% · 13% ann'l return)
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