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what it is
SoundThinking sells software that helps police find gunshots, track cases, and spot weapons.
how it gets paid
Last year Soundthinking made $102M in revenue. ShotSpotter / public safety monitoring was the main engine at $58M, or 57% of sales.
what just happened
Revenue hit $79M while EPS stayed at -$0.52.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.72 fy2024 eps est
$102M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 33/100 — weak
What they do
SoundThinking sells software that helps police find gunshots, track cases, and spot weapons.
Your city does not swap out gunshot detection and case software like office chairs. SoundThinking bundles 6 tools in one SafetySmart stack. That helped it keep 55.5% gross margin, which is good for a company still only at $102M in sales.
How they make money
$102M
annual revenue
ShotSpotter / public safety monitoring
$58M
CrimeTracer / CaseBuilder
$14M
ResourceRouter / advisory services
$12M
PlateRanger
$9M
SafePointe
$9M
The products that matter
gunshot detection system
ShotSpotter
$3M expected 2026 attrition
this is the legacy business the market still associates with the company. the problem is right in management's own outlook: roughly $3M of annual recurring revenue attrition is expected in 2026 from customer budget pressure.
legacy engine
investigative search software
CrimeTracer
tied to 2026 guidance cut
management pointed to a contract delay here when it lowered 2026 revenue guidance to $109M–$111M from $114M–$116M. for a company this size, one delayed deal can move the whole narrative.
execution risk
facility screening platform
SafePointe
15% ARR growth is the goal
management is leaning on this expansion story as part of a 15% annual recurring revenue growth plan. in human-speak: newer products need to grow fast enough to offset pressure in the older one.
the next bet
Key numbers
55.5%
gross margin
Gross margin means what is left after direct costs. You keep 55.5 cents of each sales dollar before overhead.
$102M
annual revenue
This is the full size of the business. You are looking at a tiny software company, not a giant platform.
7.7%
op margin
Operating margin means profit after running costs. Negative means the core business still loses money.
$1M
long debt
Debt is almost nothing here. That helps, but it does not fix a business that is still losing on operations.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $1M (1% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SSTI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $79M while EPS stayed at -$0.52.
Revenue was up 216% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 55.5%, but the company still lost money.
$79M
revenue
-$0.52
eps
55.5%
gross margin
gross margin
The $79M quarter showed growth, but the -$0.52 EPS says scale still has not reached profit.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is municipal contract slippage in ShotSpotter and CrimeTracer. when you run a roughly $102M revenue business, a few delayed or lost public-sector contracts show up everywhere — growth, margins, and investor patience.
med
ShotSpotter attrition is real, not theoretical
management expects about $3M of annual recurring revenue attrition in 2026 from customer budget pressure. against a roughly $102M revenue base, that is material.
impact: that attrition alone equals roughly 3% of annual revenue before you even ask the rest of the business to grow.
med
the guidance reset may not be the last one
2026 revenue guidance fell to $109M–$111M from $114M–$116M because of CrimeTracer and Puerto Rico delays. that is a noticeable cut for a company this size.
impact: if timing slips again, the valuation discount can stay in place even with a low 0.8x sales multiple.
med
margin compression is attacking the entire bull case
gross margin dropped to 54% from 58%, while full-year revenue grew just 2% and adjusted EBITDA fell to $1.3M from $1.7M. the business did not show operating leverage.
impact: a forced lower-margin profile would keep net margin stuck near the current -10.44% zone.
med
leadership turnover adds one more variable
Nasim Golzadeh's resignation, effective march 31, 2026, creates uncertainty inside the TechnoLogic and Investigative Solutions units at the same time execution already looks uneven.
impact: this does not change the math by itself, but it raises the odds of more delays in a business that cannot afford many.
a $3M attrition hit, lower 2026 guidance, and a four-point gross-margin decline all point to the same conclusion: SSTI is not one fix away from clean profitability.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
q1 2026 earnings report
scheduled for may 12, 2026. after a $0.84 loss and a guidance cut, this is less about beating a quarter and more about proving the reset stops here.
margin
gross margin recovery from 54%
54% versus 58% vs. prior year was the number that mattered. if margin does not recover, the low sales multiple may be exactly right.
attrition
whether the $3M churn estimate gets worse
roughly $3M of expected 2026 attrition is manageable only if newer products offset it. if that figure grows, the revenue base gets even harder to defend.
ownership
what Veradace does with its 16.5% stake
Veradace Capital Management disclosed 2.04M shares, or 16.5% beneficial ownership. when one holder owns that much of an $85M company, it can shape the conversation.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust the quarter-to-quarter earnings line yet.
price stability
10 / 100
this stock does not trade like a sleepy software holding. it trades like a small-cap situation.
risk rank
4
that translates to lower safety than most stocks in the broader market.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for SSTI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$9
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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