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what it is
Surf Air runs commuter flights and charter trips while trying to sell aviation software and electric aircraft retrofits.
how it gets paid
Last year Surf Air Mobility made $107M in revenue. scheduled airline service was the main engine at $80M, or 75% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 10.8% last year. The number that mattered was -72.1% operating margin.
what just happened
Revenue reached $80M, but EPS stayed deep in the red at -$2.74.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
-$5.80 fy2024 eps est
$119M fy2024 rev est
72.1% operating margin
2.3 beta
xvary composite: 32/100 — weak
What they do
Surf Air runs commuter flights and charter trips while trying to sell aviation software and electric aircraft retrofits.
This is not a pure concept stock. You are buying an operating airline with 556 employees and one of the largest commuter flight networks in the U.S. by scheduled departures. It is also the largest U.S. passenger operator of Cessna Caravans, which matters because fleet concentration → fewer aircraft types to manage → so what: your maintenance, training, and scheduling can get simpler than a mixed fleet.
How they make money
$107M
annual revenue · their business grew -10.8% last year
scheduled airline service
$80M
on-demand charter
$24M
software platform
$2M
electrification and powertrain work
$1M
The products that matter
commuter flight operations
Regional Airline
$107M segment revenue · -10.8%
this is the business paying the bills right now. it generated $107M last year, and quarterly revenue was $26.45M, down 5.71% from a year ago. if this keeps shrinking, the newer story has to show up faster.
current engine
airline software platform
SurfOS Software
part of the pivot · revenue not yet broken out here
management's $128M–$138M revenue guide for 2026 implies something beyond the current airline business has to start carrying weight. in human-speak: software matters because the airline alone is not earning this multiple.
needs proof
hybrid-electric aircraft conversion
Electric Powertrain Retrofits
future revenue bet · certification still matters
this is the longest-duration part of the story. the snapshot gives you no revenue base here and no dated certification milestone. with a $27M quarterly net loss, time is part of the valuation whether you like it or not.
catalyst watch
Key numbers
72.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after core costs → so what: Surf Air lost about 72 cents on operations for every $1 of sales in 2024.
$119M
2024 revenue est.
Revenue → total sales → so what: even near $119 million, the business is still far from covering its cost base.
$93M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: debt equals 45% of capital, which is heavy for a company with negative operating profits.
2.3
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → so what: this name tends to swing more than twice as hard as the index.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $93M (45% of capital)
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SRFM right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue reached $80M, but EPS stayed deep in the red at -$2.74.
Sales rose 175% vs. prior year in the latest quarter, but the bigger story is that losses remain severe. Full-year operating margin was -72.1%, so higher revenue has not fixed the model yet.
$80M
revenue
-$2.74
eps
+175%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was -72.1% operating margin, because revenue growth means very little if the core airline still burns cash on each dollar sold.
source: company filings, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk is simple: SRFM has to prove new revenue streams before the old one and the balance sheet make the decision for it.
high
2026 guide turns into a credibility test
management is guiding to $128M–$138M of 2026 revenue even though quarterly revenue just fell 5.71% to $26.45M.
if reported revenue does not start moving toward that run rate, investors stop treating the pivot as a plan and start treating it as wishful math.
high
certification takes longer than the market wants
the retrofit story still depends on regulatory progress, and this snapshot does not give you a dated milestone that ties the concept to revenue timing.
that keeps the company dependent on the current airline business for longer, while the stock is already asking you to look past it.
high
balance sheet pressure forces the pace
SRFM has a C++ balance sheet grade grade, $93M of long-term debt, and a $27M quarterly net loss against a market cap of about $112M.
for a company this small, delay quickly turns into dilution risk, refinancing pressure, or both.
med
the stock can be right or wrong long before the business is settled
beta is 2.3, price stability is 5 / 100, and the 52-week range runs from $1 to $10.
even if execution improves, the path will likely stay violent. if you own it, position sizing matters as much as thesis quality.
the combined risk picture is blunt: a ~$112M company with $93M of long-term debt and a $27M quarterly loss is asking you to underwrite a business transition that has not fully shown up in the reported segment data.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue pace versus the $128M–$138M guide
this is the scoreboard now. if quarterly revenue stays near $26.45M or falls again, the annual guide starts looking detached from the tape.
calendar
dated certification milestones
the retrofit story needs a schedule the market can track. without one, you are underwriting hope on management's timeline instead of your own.
trend
quarterly net loss trend
Q4 net loss was $27M. you want that number moving down with some consistency, because a company this small does not get endless expensive quarters.
risk
debt versus equity value
$93M of long-term debt against roughly $112M of market value is the kind of ratio that gets unforgiving fast if execution slips.
Analyst rankings
coverage depth
thin
in human-speak, this is not a stock with broad wall street sponsorship.
earnings visibility
low
with a $27M quarterly net loss and new businesses that are still early, forecasting the next few years is messy work.
valuation clarity
limited
no durable earnings means no useful p/e. you are valuing a transition story and a certification clock, not a stable cash machine.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for SRFM is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$2
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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