XVARY Composite Score
40
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Spire runs a large LEO constellation that collects RF Earth-observation data — weather, aviation tracking, and defense-adjacent signals — and sells analytics plus hosted space services.
How it gets paid
Last year Spire Global made ~$71.6M in revenue. Revenue excluding maritime was the main engine at ~$50.6M, or 71% of sales.
What just happened
Q4 2025 revenue ~$15.8M · diluted EPS ~$ · GAAP gross margin about 41%.
At a Glance
~$81.8M cash & securities · debt-free (Dec 31, 2025)
~$(96M) FY2025 loss from operations (GAAP)
$1.49 FY2025 diluted EPS (GAAP — includes gain on sale)
$(4.28) FY2024 diluted EPS (GAAP, actual)
~$72M FY2025 revenue vs ~$110M FY2024
XVARY composite: 40/100 — below average
What They Do
Spire runs a large LEO constellation that collects RF Earth-observation data — weather, aviation tracking, and defense-adjacent signals — and sells analytics plus hosted space services.
Spire builds and operates a deployed LEO constellation that collects RF-based Earth data (weather, aviation/maritime visibility where applicable, defense/intel adjacencies) and hosts customer payloads. Constellation → recurring data and space-services revenue → so what: buyers get coverage and refresh without launching their own fleet — but the go-to-market and program timing risk sits with government and enterprise sales cycles.
How They Make Money
~$71.6M
FY2025 GAAP revenue · down vs. prior year after maritime divestiture (Apr 2025)
Revenue excluding maritime (FY2025)
~$50.6M
see filing
Maritime revenue (FY2025, partial year)
~$21.0M
divested
The Products That Matter
Orbital data collection
Satellite Data
100+ satellites · core input
The constellation is the raw input for weather, defense, and commercial analytics, plus hosted-payload space services. After the maritime sale, the strategic question is whether RF weather and government programs can scale fast enough on a smaller revenue base.
network asset
Analytics and intelligence
Data & Analytics
NOAA, climate, analytics stack
Data and analytics (including radio occultation and related offerings) is where Spire packages feeds into programs like NOAA awards — the Q4 2025 callout was stronger RO/ocean winds recognition plus higher space-services revenue timing.
largest segment
Hosted payload services
Space Services
Hosted payloads · mission services
Space services lets customers leverage Spire’s buses, launch rhythm, and ground segment. It diversifies revenue but can be lumpy — recognition timing showed up as a Q4 2025 tailwind alongside government data sales.
execution watch
Key Numbers
~41%
Q4’25 GAAP gross margin
Gross margin improved to about 41% in Q4 2025 (per the company) — a rare bright line while GAAP operating results remain deeply negative excluding one-time gains.
~$72M
FY2025 revenue
FY2025 GAAP revenue fell from about $110M in FY2024 because maritime largely left the business mid-year — vs. prior year comps need the ex-maritime footnotes.
2.1
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → so what: you should expect bigger swings than the S&P 500.
$0
debt (Dec 31, 2025)
Spire reported a debt-free balance sheet with about $81.8M in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities — liquidity is a strength while the operating model is still burning cash.
Financial Health
B
Strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt Debt-free · ~$81.8M cash & securities (Dec 31, 2025)
B — cash and zero debt help; legal, compliance, and cash burn from operations still cap the grade.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
Q4 / FY 2025 reported
Q4 2025 revenue ~$15.8M · diluted EPS ~$(0.76) · GAAP gross margin about 41%.
FY2025 revenue was about $71.6M versus about $110.5M in FY2024, with most of the maritime business divested in April 2025. FY2025 diluted EPS was about $1.49 on a GAAP basis, driven by a roughly $154M gain on sale — not operating earnings. FY2024 diluted EPS was about $(4.28). Loss from operations was about $(96M) in FY2025 versus about $(69M) in FY2024.
~$15.8M
Q4 revenue
~$(0.76)
Q4 diluted EPS
~$(9.7)M
Q4 adj. EBITDA
the number that mattered
The maritime divestiture reset the revenue base — the forward story is whether ex-maritime revenue can grow into FY2026 guidance ($75M–$85M total revenue) while losses narrow on a non-GAAP basis.
source: Spire Q4 and FY2025 results (press release, Mar 18, 2026)
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What Could Go Wrong
The main risk is the post-maritime revenue bridge: FY2025 GAAP revenue is about $72M, FY2026 guidance is $75M–$85M, and the company frames ex-maritime growth of more than 50% from 2025 at the FY2026 midpoint — that has to show up in bookings and revenue recognition, not just slides.
High
Government contract slippage
Defense and weather programs (e.g., NOAA radio occultation, MDA-related IDIQ access) can move the needle — but government timing, protest risk, and revenue recognition make the slope lumpy. If major awards slip, FY2026 guidance gets harder.
puts the FY2026 revenue and loss-reduction narrative at risk
High
Nyse listing noncompliance
A listing notice is not side noise for a company with a ~$376M market cap. If it drags on, investor confidence and trading access both become part of your thesis.
adds market-structure risk on top of operating risk
Med
Flat segment growth
After the maritime sale, segment comps are messy — do not trust old $63M / $47M split headlines as FY2025 truth. If neither data sales nor space services inflect, the “smaller but faster-growing core” story stalls.
raises the execution bar for every quarter ahead
Med
Legal and sec expense drag
The company has disclosed legal and professional costs tied to restatement work, an SEC subpoena (July 2025), and customer disputes — on a small revenue base, those line items still matter to GAAP losses and cash burn.
delays any believable path to profitability
The business is not fake. The timing risk is the problem. If contracts slip or compliance issues linger, the guided decline is real and the recovery story stays theoretical.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Calendar
Next quarter after Mar 18, 2026 results
FY2025 is on the books — the next checkpoint is Q1 2026 (guidance about $14.5M–$15.5M revenue). You want ex-maritime growth and operating cash usage trending with management’s outlook.
Listing risk
Nyse compliance timeline
The operating story is hard enough. A lingering listing issue would add an avoidable market risk on top of it.
Growth bridge
Bridge from FY2025 to FY2026 guidance
FY2026 revenue is guided to $75M–$85M with only about $3.7M maritime in that range — track how much comes from NOAA, defense, and space-services milestones versus one-time recognition.
Segment mix
Data programs vs. space services mix
Watch which revenue bucket is driving ex-maritime growth — government weather/analytics wins versus hosted-payload milestones — so you are not fooled by blended headlines.
Analyst Rankings
street coverage
thin
in human-speak, there is not enough broad published ranking data here to use analyst sentiment as a crutch
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for SPIR is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$11
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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