Start here if you're new
what it is
It delivers propane and other heating fuels to about 1.0 million customers across 42 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Suburban Propane made $1.4B in revenue. Propane was the main engine at $1.12B, or 80% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.9% last year. East coast likely supported demand spikes for emergency propane during the fiscal second quarter.
what just happened
Fiscal Q1 revenue slipped to $370 million, but EPS jumped to $0.69 from $0.30 a year ago.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
9.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
6.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
It delivers propane and other heating fuels to about 1.0 million customers across 42 states.
Heat is not optional. Suburban serves about 1.0 million active propane customers through roughly 700 locations in 42 states, which means your tank still needs refilling when the weather gets ugly. Scale → more trucks, storage, and routing density → so what: it can spread costs across 400 million gallons of propane sales better than smaller local dealers.
How they make money
$1.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.9% last year
Propane
$1.12B
Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels
$0.21B
Natural Gas and Electricity
$0.04B
HVAC
$0.03B
The products that matter
delivers propane and fuel
Propane Distribution
$1.4B revenue · entire business
it's the whole $1.4B story, and last year's +7.9% growth tells you the core business still moves product. The catch is right there too: there is no second engine if this one cools.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
6.4%
dividend yield
You are being paid real cash to wait, but past dividend growth was -13.5%, so the payout is generous, not sacred.
$1.4B
long-term debt
That debt load is larger than the company's roughly $1 billion market cap, which tells you the balance sheet is part of the equity story.
19.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: this is a better business than the word propane makes you expect.
9.8x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit → so what: the market is pricing SPH like a slow, risky cash machine.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $1.4B (52% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.4% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SPH 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,880.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Fiscal Q1 revenue slipped to $370 million, but EPS jumped to $0.69 from $0.30 a year ago.
Net income rose to $45.8 million from $19.4 million. Higher propane volumes and improved margins did the work, even with revenue down 1% vs. prior year.
$370M
revenue
$0.69
eps
64.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
EPS more than doubled to $0.69. Translation: pricing and cost mix mattered more than top-line growth this quarter.
-
however, weaker retail prices of propane more than offset volume gains, leading to a vs. prior year decline in revenue.macroeconomic uncertainty and an increase in supplychain reliability have led to tightened inventory levels.
-
the bottom line rebounded, despite higher labor costs and mergerrelated expenses.
-
what’s more, the stormy weather along the u.s.
-
east coast likely supported demand spikes for emergency propane during the fiscal second quarter.
-
the propane industry faces several challenges.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
SPH has one main business, a weather-sensitive demand profile, and $1.4B of long-term debt. When those three things share the same page, you do not need a dramatic miss for the stock to feel it.
high
debt cuts down the room for mistakes
long-term debt stands at $1.4B, or 52% of capital. that's manageable when cash flow stays steady. it gets less comfortable if margins slip.
that is why the balance sheet earns B+ instead of something cleaner. the business can absorb normal volatility. it has less room if conditions turn against it.
high
weather and volumes still move the numbers
the 55/100 earnings predictability score tells you this is not a clockwork utility. volume and demand still matter, and last year's +7.9% growth does not guarantee the next one.
if revenue slides closer to the $1B fy2026 estimate while debt stays where it is, the defensive story looks thinner fast.
med
the upside case is already narrow
the 3–5 year midpoint target is $22 versus a current price of $20.05. that leaves modest upside before anything goes wrong.
when a stock already sits near the middle of the target range, execution has to stay clean just to keep the story intact.
med
one business line means fewer places to hide
there is no segment offset on this page. propane and fuel distribution account for the full $1.4B revenue base.
if pricing, volume, or cost control weakens in that core line, you feel it everywhere at once. that's the trade-off for a simple story.
here's what would change our mind: if SPH keeps revenue closer to $1.4B than $1B and return on capital improves from 9.0% without debt becoming the bigger headline, the ceiling looks less fixed. if those things do not happen, the stock keeps looking like a stable payer with limited rerating power.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
debt versus operating cushion
$1.4B of long-term debt against a B+ balance sheet is fine until the revenue base softens. if margins compress, this becomes the first number that matters.
metric
return on capital
9.0% is good enough to support the business. it is not good enough to force a richer valuation. you want this moving up, not sideways.
trend
institutional buying streak
three straight quarters of net buying helped hold the narrative together. if that reverses, you lose one of the cleaner positives on the page.
calendar
next revenue reset
the gap between $1.4B last year and the $1B fy2026 estimate is the next big check. one of those numbers is too cautious, and you will learn which one soon enough.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 means the stock is behaving like the broader market. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical market risk. not especially fragile, not a bunker either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 suggests a weaker trading setup from here. that's consistent with a stock already near its midpoint target.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
you can model the business directionally, but not with megacap precision. weather, demand, and pricing still matter.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 58 buyers vs. 34 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 27.1M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$27
$20
current price
$22
target midpoint · +10% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+100% · 23% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive