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what it is
Simon owns malls, outlet centers, and retail destinations where brands pay rent for your foot traffic.
how it gets paid
Last year Simon Property Gp made $6.4B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 255.3% last year. Demand for retail space is holding up reasonably well.
what just happened
Latest quarterly EPS came in at $9.39 versus a $2.02 estimate, a 364.85% surprise.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
26.9x trailing p/e — priced about right
4.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
Simon owns malls, outlet centers, and retail destinations where brands pay rent for your foot traffic.
This is scale with a lease attached. Simon has interests in 194 properties in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, plus 31 assets abroad, and that footprint gives brands fewer real alternatives if they want premium mall traffic. REIT → a company built to own income-producing real estate → so what: you are buying rent streams, and Simon converts them into a 47.0% operating margin.
How they make money
$6.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +255.3% last year
total revenue
$6.4B
+255.3%
The products that matter
owns and leases retail properties
Retail real estate
$6.4B · entire revenue base
it's the whole business: $6.4B of annual revenue, up 6.7%, with a 37.0% net margin. When leasing demand is healthy, the cash machine works. When it slows, there is nowhere else to hide.
37.0% net margin
Key numbers
47.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → how much sales is left after running the business → so what: Simon keeps nearly $0.47 of each revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
4.9%
dividend yield
You are getting paid 4.9% a year to wait, which is the main reason many people own a mall REIT in the first place.
26.9x
trailing p/e
A mall landlord at 26.9 times trailing earnings is not cheap, especially when the 18-month upside target is only about 9%.
9.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money put into the business → so what: Simon earns $9.50 for every $100 tied up in properties and operations.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- net profit margin 35.0% — keeps 35 cents of every dollar in revenue
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SPG 3 years ago → it's now worth $18,330.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarterly EPS came in at $9.39 versus a $2.02 estimate, a 364.85% surprise.
Quarterly revenue reached $1.8 billion, up 13% vs. prior year, while annual revenue stands at $6.4 billion. The weird part is that yearly EPS still looks lumpy, with 2025 full-year EPS at $6.85 versus $7.26 in 2024.
$1.8B
revenue
$9.39
eps
364.85%
surprise
the number that mattered
The $9.39 EPS print mattered because it crushed the $2.02 estimate, proving this stock can still produce headline-grabbing cash earnings even as full-year trends stay mixed.
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we expect simon property group to report mixed results for full-year 2025. (the mall reit is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter financials in midfebruary.) on the one hand, revenues increased 6.1% during the first nine months of the year, from the like-2024 period, to an aggregate of $4.2 billion.the company’s expanding portfolio and respectable operating metrics (more details below) were the primary reasons.
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but, on the other, funds from operations (ffo) declined to a combined $9.07 per share through the september interim, from $9.30 last year.
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expenses (+7.7%) continue to outpace top-line growth, though the cost of capital (+3.6%) has been well controlled.
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for the full year, we look for revenues to advance roughly 4% to $6.2 billion, but ffo will likely regress about 2% from 2024’s standout figure, to $12.70 a share.
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demand for retail space is holding up reasonably well.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is ffo growth stalling while operating costs rise faster than rent.
high
ffo compression
through september, FFO per share fell to $9.07 from $9.30. Full-year FFO is expected around $12.70, down about 2%. For a REIT, that's the core cash-flow metric.
this hits the income thesis directly
med
tenant demand softening
SPG gets essentially all of its $6.4B revenue from leasing retail real estate. If store closures rise or leasing spreads weaken, the whole model feels it.
100% of the revenue base is exposed to retail leasing conditions
med
margin squeeze from cost inflation
expenses rose 7.7% through the first nine months, faster than the 6.1% revenue increase. That's manageable for one stretch. It's a problem if it becomes a pattern.
48.0% operating margin is the cushion — and the thing that gets squeezed
if revenue grows 6.1% while expenses rise 7.7%, the pressure lands on the 48.0% operating margin and the cash flow supporting that 4.9% yield.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
q4 2025 earnings
mid-february 2026 is the next real checkpoint. You want to see whether revenue growth finally shows up in FFO per share.
metric
full-year FFO around $12.70
that's the current cash-flow line in the sand. A miss matters more than small revenue noise.
trend
expenses versus revenue
6.1% revenue growth against 7.7% expense growth is backwards. If that spread persists, margin pressure stops being temporary.
risk
leasing demand
management says demand for retail space is holding up reasonably well. Reasonably well is fine until it isn't.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still think the setup is decent.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is behaving normally. No dramatic signal, no hidden panic.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
predictable enough for a property owner, but not so predictable that you ignore quarter-to-quarter cash-flow slippage.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 576 buyers vs. 500 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$152
$249
$184
current price
$201
target midpoint · +9% from current · 3-5yr high: $250 (+35% · 12% ann'l return)
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