Start here if you're new
what it is
Schneider National moves freight across North America with trucks, containers, and logistics planning.
how it gets paid
Last year Sndr made $5.7B in revenue. Truckload was the main engine at $1.9B, or 33% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.3% last year. Q4 CY2025 revenue came in at $1.4B, up 4.5% vs. prior year, but profit missed the Street.
what just happened
SNDR missed $0.21 with $0.13 per share, then posted the kind of quarter freight investors know too well.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
45.4x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
2.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Schneider National moves freight across North America with trucks, containers, and logistics planning.
You are buying access to 7,850 customers, including 134 Fortune 500 names. That is 117,800 trucks, tractors, trailers, containers, and chassis doing the hauling. Leaving means rebooking freight across a system that already runs on 10% owner-operators, which means independent drivers.
How they make money
$5.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.3% last year
Truckload
$1.9B
+4.0%
Intermodal
$1.1B
+6.0%
Logistics
$1.0B
+7.0%
Dedicated
$0.9B
+3.0%
Brokerage and Other
$0.8B
+9.0%
The products that matter
moves freight across north america
Truckload & Intermodal
$5.7B revenue · 4.2% quarterly growth
it is the entire $5.7B business in this snapshot, and the latest quarter still grew 4.2%. the problem is not scale. the problem is how little of that revenue sticks as profit.
core
earnings recovery setup
FY2026 estimate
$1.00 EPS · $6B revenue
the street expects roughly $300M more revenue than last year's $5.7B and $1.00 in EPS. that is the recovery case in one line.
what needs to happen
balance sheet support
financial flexibility
B++ grade · $391M debt
for a $5.7B freight operator, $391M in long-term debt is manageable. you are not betting on a distressed balance sheet. you are betting on better earnings economics.
risk cushion
Key numbers
$5.7B
annual revenue
Revenue is the top line, or all sales before expenses. You need this to keep growing while margins stay thin.
45.4x
trailing p/e
P/E means price versus profit. You are paying $45.40 for each $1 of earnings.
3.0%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business. Only 3 cents of every dollar survives.
9.5%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit on money invested. A 9.5% return is solid, but not enough to justify a 45.4x multiple.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $391M (7% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.7% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SNDR 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,830.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
SNDR missed $0.21 with $0.13 per share, then posted the kind of quarter freight investors know too well.
Q4 CY2025 revenue came in at $1.4B, up 4.5% vs. prior year, but profit missed the Street. That gap says pricing stayed weak even with modest growth.
$1.4B
revenue
$0.13
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The 8-cent EPS miss matters because it says volume did not turn into enough profit.
-
schneider national closed out 2025 on a weak note.earnings came in at $0.13 a share in the fourth quarter, below consensus expectations of around $0.20.
-
despite higher revenues (+5% from a year ago), the bottom line faltered versus the december period of 2024.performance softened mainly due to a severely truncated peak season beginning in november, as shippers aggressively drew down inventories rather than restocking for holiday demand. unplanned automotive production shutdowns with key customers disrupted dedicated operations throughout november. simultaneously, spiking third-party carrier costs compressed logistics margins, while elevated healthcare expenses added unexpected cost pressure. what's more, poor midwest weather compounded volume challenges, though tighter capacity in late-december provided brief relief, as regulatory-related competitor exits were absorbed by remaining carriers.
-
however, the outlook for 2026 is much rosier.while performance improvement likely hinges on accelerating capacity exits from heightened regulatory enforcement, management's estimate of $40 million in savings from workforce reductions and ai-related productivity enhancements is encouraging.
-
on the demand side, catalysts include stronger tax refunds, interest rate cuts, and federal infrastructure investments that could trigger inventory restocking following aggressive year-end drawdowns.we believe these factors will allow earnings to bounce back to $1.00 a share, on revenues of $5.9 billion.
-
the next 3 to 5 years hold promise.sustained growth from multi-year rate restoration is likely, as constrained capacity strengthens pricing.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is freight pricing and demand softness in north american trucking.
high
freight pricing rolls over
this is a low-margin freight operator. if pricing weakens, the impact shows up quickly because there is no large high-margin segment to offset it.
with a 3.6% net margin and 1.8% margin in the latest quarter, even a small rate miss can hit earnings hard.
high
the recovery gets pushed out
the stock is leaning on a move from $0.63 in full-year EPS to a $1.00 estimate. if that earnings recovery slips, the valuation loses its support.
45.4x trailing earnings is a forgiving multiple only if profits rebound.
med
cost inflation outruns pricing
fuel, labor, equipment, and network costs do not need to move much to matter when quarterly margin is 1.8%.
you do not need a recession to pressure this business. you just need costs to rise faster than freight rates.
med
capital stays busy, returns stay average
6.5% return on capital is workable, not special. if asset utilization softens, returns can look mediocre for longer than investors expect.
that matters because this is an asset-heavy business. average returns deserve average multiples.
all of the revenue in this snapshot runs through the same freight cycle. on a $5.7B revenue base with thin margins, you do not need a disaster to pressure earnings.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
quarterly margin
1.8% was the latest reading. if that stays stuck around 2%, the recovery case gets thinner than it already is.
metric
EPS path to $1.00
the fy2026 estimate is $1.00. that is the number supporting the stock more than last year's $0.63.
trend
revenue vs. profit
revenue grew 7.3% last year and 10% in the latest quarter. watch whether earnings finally start keeping up.
calendar
next earnings print
this is the cleanest checkpoint for whether institutional buyers are early or simply early wrong.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this likely lags unless freight conditions improve.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — not especially fragile, not a bunker stock either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming anything dramatic right now.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings can move around more than you would like. this is what cyclical transport stocks do.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 162 buyers vs. 118 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 56.1M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$23
$45
$29
current price
$34
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+40% · 10% ann'l return)
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