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what it is
Sun Country sells cheap leisure flights, charter trips, and cargo flying for Amazon with a 70-plane Boeing 737 fleet.
how it gets paid
Last year Sun Country made ~$1.1B in revenue (+4.7% vs. prior year; reported FY2025 ~$1.13B). Scheduled passenger tickets were the largest line at ~$430M (~39% of sales)— see the segment table below.
why it's growing
FY revenue grew ~4.7%. The latest quarter in the earnings narrative grew roughly high-single-digits vs. prior year on revenue.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue was ~$281M with ~$8.1M net income (~$0.15 GAAP EPS; adjusted ~$0.17). Merger terms with Allegiant now matter as much as the next quarter.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
20.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
6.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
~$0.96 FY2025 GAAP EPS (reported)
Allegiant merger · regulatory path is the swing factor
xvary composite: 30/100 — weak
What they do
Sun Country sells cheap leisure flights, charter trips, and cargo flying for Amazon with a 70-plane Boeing 737 fleet.
This airline wins by doing three jobs with the same fleet: leisure trips, charter flying, and Amazon cargo support. That mix keeps planes busy in more ways than a plain vacation airline. FY2025 operating margin was roughly high-single-digits (~9% of revenue on reported numbers)— not teen margins every quarter, but better than many low-fare peers.
How they make money
$1.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.7% last year (~$1.13B reported FY2025)
scheduled passenger tickets
$430M
ancillary fees
$260M
cargo flying
$250M
charter service
$140M
other revenue
$20M
The products that matter
discount passenger flying
Scheduled Passenger Service
~$430M · ~39% of FY revenue
Matches the scheduled passenger line in the table. When tickets and loads cooperate, the rest of the model has something to stack on.
core engine
freight transportation
Air Cargo
~$250M cargo · FY mix ~23%
The revenue table puts cargo near a quarter of sales— much larger than a $44M side line. Recent quarters showed cargo growing fast vs. prior year as block hours ramp.
fastest growth
contract air transportation
Charter Services
~$140M charter · ~13% of FY revenue
Matches the charter line in the table. Steady charter helps utilization when leisure demand wobbles.
stabilizer
Key numbers
$18.89
deal value
That is the implied buyout price in the Allegiant agreement, and it sits below the recent $19.87 stock price, so your upside is already boxed in.
$459M
long-term debt
That debt equals 36% of capital, which means lenders have a big seat at the table before common shareholders get paid.
~8.9%
operating margin (FY)
Operating margin → profit after running the airline → FY2025 was roughly high-single-digits on reported revenue— Q4 runs lower; do not confuse peak FY with every quarter.
20.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by last 12 months of earnings → so what: you are paying over 20 times trailing profit for a company already under a sale agreement.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $459M (36% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SNCY right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 2025 revenue was ~$281M (up ~8% vs. prior year); GAAP EPS ~$0.15, adjusted ~$0.17— merger math still competes with operations.
Net income for the quarter was $8.1M per the February 2026 release. Full-year revenue growth stayed near ~4.7%.
$281M
quarter revenue
$0.17 / $0.15
adj. / GAAP eps
$8.1M
quarter net income
the number that mattered
$18.89 matters as much as Q4 EPS now— the agreed takeout price frames the ceiling while the stock trades above it.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is DOJ scrutiny of the Allegiant acquisition.
high
the deal fails and the merger premium leaves with it
The current story is partly about acquisition odds. If the DOJ blocks the Allegiant deal, the market has to fall back on the standalone airline economics — 4.7% net margin last year and 2.9% in the latest quarter.
If the deal breaks, the multiple compresses fast— you are repricing on ~4.7% FY net margin and a ~2.9% latest quarter, not on deal premium.
med
thin margins leave almost no buffer
On $281M of quarterly revenue, Sun Country kept just $8.1M. When margins are this thin, small changes in fuel, labor, or ticket pricing matter more than management slogans.
Thin quarters mean fuel, labor, or fare moves flow straight to the tape— there is little cushion to absorb a miss.
med
debt limits flexibility if operating conditions get worse
The company carries $459M of long-term debt, equal to 36% of capital. That is manageable until margins stay low for too long. Then it stops being background noise.
If earnings soften while $459M of debt rolls, covenants and refinancing headlines can move ahead of operations.
med
leadership turnover adds execution risk at the wrong time
The October 2025 departure of the chief revenue officer matters because pricing discipline is one of the few levers an airline actually controls. Losing that seat during a review process is not ideal.
Revenue leadership churn during a merger review raises execution risk on fares and mix— a bad time to lose pricing focus.
If the deal stalls, you are left owning a low-margin airline with $459M of debt and a latest-quarter net margin of 2.9%.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
regulatory
DOJ review of the Allegiant deal
This is the main catalyst. If approval comes through, the market keeps trading the acquisition. If it does not, the standalone numbers have to carry the story.
profitability
whether margin climbs back above 2.9%
The latest quarter turned $281M of revenue into $8.1M of profit. You need to see more money stick to each dollar of sales, not just more sales.
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings
Management said first-quarter demand trends remain strong. The real question is whether demand strength reaches the bottom line.
segment mix
cargo and charter as shock absorbers
Cargo has been growing fast vs. prior year in recent quarters; charter is ~$140M in the FY table. Together they matter if they steady the passenger cycle.
Analyst rankings
earnings visibility
low
FY2025 GAAP EPS near ~$0.96 against a ~2.9% latest-quarter net margin tells you the model is still thin— forecasting stays noisy.
risk profile
elevated
The mix of deal uncertainty, low margins, and low price stability makes this a higher-volatility name than the average stock.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for SNCY is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$19.87
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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