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what it is
Simply Good Foods sells protein bars, shakes, and low-sugar snacks under Atkins, Quest, and OWYN.
how it gets paid
Last year Simply Good Foods made $1.5B in revenue. nutrition bars was the main engine at $0.56B, or 37% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 9.0% last year. Gross margin was 32.3%, and the company said Quest and OWYN still posted double-digit gains.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue was $340 million and stayed flat, but EPS fell to $0.26 from pressure below the top line.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
10.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Simply Good Foods sells protein bars, shakes, and low-sugar snacks under Atkins, Quest, and OWYN.
This company wins where your breakfast panic lives: quick protein, low sugar, and familiar brands on the shelf. Quest and OWYN kept posting double-digit gains while quarterly sales held at $340 million, according to the company and analyst coverage. That matters because one strong brand can pull you in once, but three brands across bars, shakes, and snacks keep you buying.
How they make money
$1.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.0% last year
nutrition bars
$0.56B
+6.0%
ready-to-drink shakes
$0.41B
+18.0%
sweet and salty snacks
$0.24B
+4.0%
confectionery and treats
$0.14B
3.0%
powders and other nutrition products
$0.15B
+9.0%
The products that matter
protein bars and snacks
Quest
part of the $1.5B portfolio
management pointed to double-digit gains here even while total company revenue was flat at $340M. this is the growth engine the market still believes in.
growth brand
legacy low-carb brand
Atkins
the pressure point
distribution reductions and inventory normalization at atkins were enough to offset growth elsewhere and keep the quarter flat. that tells you where the problem is.
reset in progress
plant-based shakes and powders
OWYN
additional runway
management also cited double-digit gains here and sees distribution headroom. the catch is scale disclosure is thin, so you know the direction more than the size.
watch list
Key numbers
10.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each dollar of profit. At 10.4x, you are paying a snack-stock price for a company still expected to grow.
31%
Walmart exposure
Customer concentration → too much business with one buyer → one retailer has unusual leverage over your revenue.
32.3%
gross margin
Gross margin → money left after making the product → this is the cushion that funds marketing, debt service, and earnings.
$30
18-month target
That sits $10.01 above the $19.99 share price. The gap is 50%, which tells you how low expectations already are.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $249M (11% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.0% — keeps 14 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SMPL 3 years ago → it's now worth $5,270.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter revenue was $340 million and stayed flat, but EPS fell to $0.26 from pressure below the top line.
Gross margin was 32.3%, and the company said Quest and OWYN still posted double-digit gains. The quiet part is that newer growth brands are working, but they are not yet strong enough to lift the whole company every quarter.
$340M
revenue
$0.26
eps
32.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Zero percent revenue growth mattered most because flat sales plus lower EPS usually means margin pressure, heavier promotions, or both.
-
we figure sales were flat, at $340 million, as continued double-digit gains at quest and only what you need (owyn) were more than offset by sharp declines at atkins following distribution reductions and trade inventory normalization.margins were likely impacted, consistent with management’s prior view that the first quarter would represent the low point for profitability.
-
full-year 2026 results should show a clear second-half recovery.management has guided to sales ranging from slightly down to modestly higher for the year, as atkins continues to be resized around a narrower core assortment. importantly, margins are expected to improve sequentially as pricing actions take hold, productivity initiatives scale, and cocoa costs roll over in the back half of the year. we figure strong earnings trends late in fiscal 2026 should bring full-year profits to roughly equal 2025’s $1.92-pershare showing. simply good looks to benefit from strong consumer demand for high-protein, low-sugar products out to 2028-2030. quest should remain the primary growth engine, supported by expansion into salty snacks and adjacent formats, while owyn offers additional runway given low brand awareness and distribution headroom in shakes and powders. the company maintains a low-debt balance sheet and operates with a largely asset-light structure, relying primarily on co-manufacturers and targeted investments in tooling and partner capacity rather than owning production facilities, which should support solid cash generation and financial flexibility.
-
given current challenges, we have lowered our 2028-2030 target price range to $30-$45, from $35-$55.even at this reduced range, the shares offer above-average recovery potential toward that latter part of the decade.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is an atkins reset that lasts longer than management expects.
high
atkins does not stabilize
distribution reductions and inventory normalization already offset growth at quest and owyn. if that keeps happening, the portfolio stays stuck in internal tug-of-war.
impact: quarterly revenue stays pinned near $340M and 2026 EPS struggles to beat $1.92
med
margin recovery arrives late
management is counting on pricing actions, productivity, and lower cocoa costs in the back half. that means the next few quarters still have room to disappoint.
impact: the latest 7.1% quarterly margin remains the headline instead of the 22.5% operating margin investors want to anchor on
med
the stock stays cheap for a reason
a 10.4x trailing P/E looks inexpensive, but cheap stocks usually need a catalyst. here, the catalyst is cleaner growth and a less messy brand mix.
impact: the shares can stay near the low end of the $18–$40 range even with a profitable business underneath
low
institutional demand remains soft
160 buyers versus 165 sellers is not panic. it's worse in a way — indifference. when a stock loses sponsorship, rerating takes longer.
impact: recovery upside toward $30–$45 may depend on patience more than business quality
if revenue stays around $340M a quarter and earnings only hover near 2025's $1.92, the 3–5 year recovery case slides right, not up.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
whether $340M was the floor or the new normal
one flat quarter can be noise. two starts to look like the business has a real growth problem.
risk
atkins shelf-reset commentary
management already blamed distribution reductions and inventory normalization. you want evidence that this is ending, not just being explained.
calendar
second-half fiscal 2026 margin improvement
the company has made the back half the key event. if pricing and cocoa relief show up, the recovery story gets real numbers behind it.
trend
relative performance versus the market
SMPL turned $10,000 into $5,270 over three years while the index became $13,920. that gap is the sentiment tax you are trying to buy through.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts are not seeing a near-term breakout or collapse.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. you are not buying a bunker stock, but this is not a balance-sheet emergency either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4. the chart still looks guilty until proven innocent.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
management tends to produce steady results. the problem is growth quality, not accounting drama.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
160 buyers vs. 165 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 93.6M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$42
$20
current price
$30
target midpoint · +50% from current · 3-5yr high: $45 (+125% · 22% ann'l return)
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