Start here if you're new
what it is
Soleno sells a rare-disease treatment aimed at controlling the extreme hunger tied to Prader-Willi syndrome.
how it gets paid
Last year Soleno Therapeutics made $190M in revenue. VYKAT XR U.S. net sales was the main engine at $150M, or 79% of sales.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $99M, but EPS stayed negative at -$0.45.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
180.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
4.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.39 fy2025 eps est
xvary composite: 38/100 — weak
What they do
Soleno sells a rare-disease treatment aimed at controlling the extreme hunger tied to Prader-Willi syndrome.
Prader-Willi syndrome affects about 1 in 15,000 live births. If this hits your family, a once-daily tablet is not a luxury. That rarity gives Soleno a focused market where a single therapy can matter a lot.
How they make money
$190M
annual revenue
VYKAT XR U.S. net sales
$150M
up from near zero
specialty pharmacy channel sales
$20M
up with launch
patient access and distribution revenue
$12M
up with launch
other commercial revenue
$8M
flat
The products that matter
commercial rare disease therapy
VYKAT XR
$190M · 100% of current revenue
it is the only FDA-approved treatment for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome, and it already accounts for all $190M of current revenue. That's the franchise. That's also the concentration risk.
only approved option
EU expansion catalyst
DCCR / VYKAT XR EU
mid-2026 review · next major catalyst
the same active compound is under EU regulatory review, with a decision expected in mid-2026. Management's expansion angle is simple: take a US-only rare-disease drug and make it a broader franchise.
regulatory swing factor
Key numbers
180.8x
trailing p/e
You are paying 180.8 times trailing earnings. Plain English: the market already priced in a lot of future success.
$2B
2026 revenue
That is the 2026 revenue estimate. So what: the stock's story is about scaling revenue by an order of magnitude.
$52M
long debt
Long-term debt is $52M, or 3% of capital. Plain English: leverage is light, so the balance sheet is not the main problem.
4.6%
return on capital
Return on capital is 4.6%. Plain English: each dollar invested is still producing a pretty thin payoff.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $52M (3% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SLNO right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $99M, but EPS stayed negative at -$0.45.
Sales growth is arriving faster than profit. Revenue rose 49% vs. prior year, while the earnings line still showed red ink.
$99M
revenue
$0.45
eps
8.9%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$99M matters most because commercial traction is the only thing that can justify a 180.8x earnings multiple.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a slower-than-expected VYKAT XR launch in a one-drug company.
med
single-product concentration
100% of current $190M revenue comes from VYKAT XR. There is no second product to offset a reimbursement issue, slower patient uptake, or a commercial stumble.
If the launch wobbles, the whole income statement feels it at once.
med
EU review dependency
The next major catalyst is a mid-2026 EU decision tied to the same underlying compound. A lot of the strategic upside from here assumes Soleno can extend beyond a US-only story.
If the EU path disappoints, the market is left paying a premium multiple for a much narrower franchise.
med
valuation leaves no cushion
At 180.8x trailing earnings and a roughly $2B market cap, the stock already assumes years of successful adoption. That is a lot of optimism for a company with a 55 / 100 predictability score and 5 / 100 price stability.
Even good execution can disappoint the stock if it falls short of perfection.
med
legal overhang
A securities class action has been filed, with a lead plaintiff deadline in May 2026. Thin companies do not have much room for avoidable distractions while a launch is still being established.
This may not break the thesis, but it can pressure sentiment, management time, and headline risk.
100% of current $190M revenue rests on one drug, so any commercial setback hits the whole story immediately.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
mid-2026 EU review
This is the next binary moment. Approval would widen the story beyond the current US launch. A miss would leave SLNO looking much more like a one-market company.
metric
can quarterly revenue move above $91.7M
The latest quarter printed $91.7M in revenue. You want to see that number build from here, because flat launch revenue and a 180.8x multiple are a bad combination.
risk
may 2026 class action deadline
This is mostly a sentiment and distraction issue for now, but it is still part of the stock's reality. Small commercial-stage biotechs do not need extra headline risk.
trend
analyst estimate revisions
HC Wainwright already trimmed a Q3 2026 EPS estimate. If more cuts follow, the street is telling you the launch profit curve is coming in slower than expected.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
55 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not think this company is easy to model yet. That makes sense for a first-product launch.
risk rank
4
safer than 20% of stocks means this still screens as risky. You are getting biotech volatility, not a defensive healthcare name.
price stability
5 / 100
a 5 / 100 score is the market's way of telling you this stock does not move gently. The $33–$90 range already proved it.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for SLNO is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$40
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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