Start here if you're new
what it is
Smucker sells the coffee, peanut butter, frozen sandwiches, snacks, and dog treats already sitting in your kitchen.
how it gets paid
Last year Co. made $8.7B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.7% last year. Latest reported quarterly revenue was $2.3B, up 3%, but management called out disappointing results and weaker coffee volumes after price hikes.
what just happened
The quarter's loudest number was EPS of $2.10 versus a $2.45 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
11.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
Smucker sells the coffee, peanut butter, frozen sandwiches, snacks, and dog treats already sitting in your kitchen.
You buy Folgers, Jif, Uncrustables, and Milk-Bone because they are already in your routine. That habit matters more than marketing poetry. Smucker generated $8.7B in annual revenue, and its beta was just 0.5, which means the stock has moved about half as much as the market. Brand loyalty (repeat buying → people grab the familiar jar or box → sales hold up) is the whole trick here.
How they make money
$8.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +6.7% last year
total revenue
$8.7B
+6.7%
The products that matter
manufactures branded packaged foods
Branded food and beverages
$8.7B revenue · 100% of sales shown here
this $8.7B portfolio grew 4.2% last year and carries the entire investment case. the source data here does not break out cleaner segment detail, so you should read that as concentration, not missing decoration. there is not another division here to offset a weak quarter.
entire revenue engine
Key numbers
11.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → so what: you are paying 11 times estimated earnings for a branded food company, which is cheap next to the broader market.
4.5%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year relative to the stock price → so what: you are getting paid while waiting for the business to clean up.
$7.0B
long debt
Long-term debt → money the company owes over many years → so what: it equals 40% of capital, which limits how much room management has for another big mistake.
9.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money invested in the business → so what: 9.0% is decent, but it is not the kind of number that hides sloppy execution.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $7.0B (40% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.0% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SJM 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,970.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter's loudest number was EPS of $2.10 versus a $2.45 estimate.
Latest reported quarterly revenue was $2.3B, up 3%, but management called out disappointing results and weaker coffee volumes after price hikes. The market is waiting for cleaner proof that Hostess can help more than it hurts.
$2.3B
revenue
$2.10
eps
32.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 14.3% EPS miss matters because this is supposed to be the stable food stock, not the one explaining another messy quarter.
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j.m.
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smucker reported disappointing fiscal second-quarter (ended october 31st) results. (please note that we have started reporting full non-gaap earnings, which excludes amortization expenses, in fiscal 2025.) during the three-month period non-gaap earnings of $2.10 a share, fell 24% from the year-earlier figure of $2.76.there were a number of reasons for the underperformance, including an onerous operating-cost environment. in particular, the high price of coffee beans, due to the tariffs place on shipments from south america, have eroded margins in the struggling u.s.
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retail coffee unit.
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too, the price hikes to offset the elevated input costs led to a erosion in volume.
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likewise, the u.s.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk is specific, not theoretical: coffee bean cost inflation is already colliding with weaker volume, and the latest quarter showed what that looks like when it gets ugly.
med
input costs stay high
management already tied fiscal second-quarter non-gaap EPS dropping to $2.10 from $2.76 to high coffee bean costs. if costs stay elevated, margin pressure stops looking temporary.
recent evidence: quarterly margin fell to -14.1%
med
price hikes keep hurting volume
the company pushed pricing to offset costs, then saw volume erode. that works for a quarter more easily than it works for a thesis. if customers keep buying less, revenue quality weakens even when dollars hold up.
revenue rose 7% from a year ago, but earnings still swung to a quarterly loss
med
debt limits the margin for error
SJM carries $7.0B of long-term debt, equal to 40% of capital. that is manageable in a steady staples business. it gets less comfortable if weak quarters stop being one-offs.
balance sheet is B++, not bulletproof
med
cheap can stay cheap
11.0x earnings looks inexpensive until you remember the stock turned $10,000 into $6,970 over three years. low multiples do not force a rerating. better execution does.
the market already had time to notice the 4.5% yield and still stayed skeptical
between a -14.1% quarterly margin, coffee cost pressure, weaker volume, and $7.0B of debt, this is a low-growth staple with less room for mistakes than the 4.5% yield implies.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the number
quarterly margin recovery
the latest quarter ran at -14.1%. if that snaps back, the cheap multiple looks rational. if it does not, the market has already explained the discount.
risk
coffee costs versus pricing
management blamed both high coffee bean costs and price hikes that hurt volume. watch which side eases first. you want at least one of them to stop fighting the income statement.
next report
follow-through after the loss quarter
full-year 2025 still showed $9.00 EPS, but the latest quarter lost $6.79 per share. the next print decides which version of SJM you are actually underwriting.
trend
relative performance gap
three-year total return turned $10,000 into $6,970 versus $13,920 for the index. a value stock eventually has to do more than look cheap.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term catalyst either way.
risk profile
lower than most
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. the business profile still looks steadier than the latest quarter did.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is drifting, not breaking out. you are not getting a momentum tailwind here.
earnings predictability
95 / 100
management has usually delivered steady numbers. that is exactly why the recent ugly quarter deserves extra attention.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 352 buyers vs. 370 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 93.4M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$81
$141
$99
current price
$111
target midpoint · +12% from current · 3-5yr high: $155 (+55% · 15% ann'l return)
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