Start here if you're new
what it is
SiriusXM sells paid audio subscriptions, ads, and podcasts to 160 million monthly listeners across satellite radio, streaming, and Pandora.
how it gets paid
Last year Sirius Xm made $8.6B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.6% last year. The number that mattered was the 70.0% earnings miss versus consensus.
what just happened
The quarter was a headline mess: consensus flagged a 70.0% miss, even as SEC figures showed $6.4B of revenue and $1.99 EPS.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
5.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
SiriusXM sells paid audio subscriptions, ads, and podcasts to 160 million monthly listeners across satellite radio, streaming, and Pandora.
SiriusXM still owns the dashboard in a lot of cars, and that matters because people keep listening where they already are. Its core SiriusXM brand made 75% of 2024 revenue, while the combined company reached 160 million monthly listeners. Habit moat (you keep using the thing already built into your routine) → people stay put → that gives SiriusXM time to raise ARPU a little even while growth stalls.
How they make money
$8.6B
annual revenue · revenue declined -1.6% last year
total revenue
$8.6B
1.6%
The products that matter
in-car audio subscription service
Satellite Radio Subscriptions
$8.6B revenue · -1.6%
it's the whole story in one line: an $8.6B core business that declined 1.6%. if this line does not flatten, nothing else on the page matters much.
entire business
Key numbers
$9.0B
long-term debt
That is more debt than the company's roughly $7 billion market value. You are buying leverage as much as audio.
7.5x
trailing p/e
A low multiple means the stock is cheap on current earnings. It also means the market expects very little growth.
17.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: the core model still throws off decent money even with weak sales.
5.7%
dividend yield
You are getting paid to wait. That only works if cash flow holds up under the debt load.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $9.0B (56% of capital)
- net profit margin 11.9% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SIRI 3 years ago → it's now worth $3,900.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter was a headline mess: consensus flagged a 70.0% miss, even as SEC figures showed $6.4B of revenue and $1.99 EPS.
The mismatch came from transaction noise around the Liberty merger and spin. That makes the raw quarter look huge, but it does not change the bigger story of flat annual revenue at $8.6 billion.
$6.4B
revenue
$1.99
eps
52.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 70.0% earnings miss versus consensus, because trust breaks faster than revenue.
-
sirius xm holdings probably took a large step back in 2025.
-
earnings per share likely tumbled 20% from the year-ago figure, while sales slipped 2%.despite greater subscriber-acquisition investment, the satellite radio provider struggled with churn, especially among self-pay accounts.
-
during the september period, average revenue per user increased marginally on a year-to-year basis.moreover, cost controls countered rising operating expenses and costs incurred from the liberty transaction, aiding margins.
-
we expect these positive trends likely persisted through the final stanza of the year.
-
the satellite radio company will probably rebound nicely in the near term.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
Sirius XM does not need a dramatic collapse to disappoint you. it needs the current slide in subscribers and earnings to keep going.
med
self-pay subscriber churn
management already pointed to churn pressure, especially among self-pay accounts. this is the paying listener base. if it keeps eroding, the recurring revenue stream gets thinner in the only engine that matters.
impact: recurring revenue pressure inside an $8.6B business that already shrank 1.6% last year.
med
debt and refinancing pressure
long-term debt sits at $9.0B, or 56% of capital. that works while cash flow stays steady. if revenue keeps slipping, debt service and dividend support start pulling on the same dollars.
impact: debt already sits above the company's roughly $7B market cap, so balance-sheet stress can overwhelm the value story fast.
med
acquisition spend without retention
management can spend to replace lost listeners. here's the catch: if those dollars do not improve retention, you are paying more to stand still.
impact: full-year EPS already fell 20% to $2.80. more spend without stabilization keeps the recovery case on hold.
med
one-engine revenue base
many businesses get to hide a weak segment behind a strong one. Sirius XM does not. with effectively one core revenue line, a small operating miss shows up everywhere.
impact: when revenue slips 1.6% and EPS falls 20%, you see how little insulation the model has.
The bear case is simple: if revenue stays around $8.6B and debt stays around $9.0B, you are not paying for growth. You are paying for endurance.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
the key test is simple: does revenue stop shrinking after the recent 1.6% decline, and does EPS move from $2.80 toward the $3.00 estimate.
risk
self-pay churn
management already flagged pressure here. if churn stays elevated, the yield story loses credibility fast.
metric
ARPU versus revenue
higher ARPU sounds good. it only matters if pricing gains outrun listener losses. watch both together, not one in isolation.
trend
institutional sponsorship
213 institutions bought while 234 sold in 3q2025. that is not panic. it is still the wrong direction for a shrinking business.
Analyst rankings
valuation setup
7.5x p/e
in human-speak, the market thinks this is an ex-growth business until the numbers prove otherwise.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than the low multiple suggests. expect noise, not smooth compounding.
risk profile
stability 3
about average on overall risk. you are not buying a bunker stock. you are buying a cash-flow story that still needs proof.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 213 buyers vs. 234 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$14
$33
$21
current price
$24
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $65 (+210% · 35% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive