Start here if you're new
what it is
Shake Shack sells burgers, fries, shakes, and a branded fast-casual experience through 585 restaurants across the U.S. and abroad.
how it gets paid
Last year Shake Shack made ~$1.45B in revenue (segment rows on this page sum to that ballpark). Domestic company-operated Shacks was the main engine at $1.32B, or most of the consolidated total in the table.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 15.4% last year. The 9.76% EPS miss mattered most because a stock at 71.3x earnings does not get much forgiveness for small execution slips.
what just happened
Shake Shack posted $0.37 EPS (q), missing the $0.41 estimate, even as revenue reached $400.53M in the quarter.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
71.3x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
12.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 44/100 — below average
What they do
Shake Shack sells burgers, fries, shakes, and a branded fast-casual experience through 585 restaurants across the U.S. and abroad.
You are not buying a menu. You are buying a brand people still line up for after price increases. Same-store sales rose 2.1% vs. prior year, and traffic increased for a second straight period, which tells you demand held even as prices moved up. The real edge is expansion with less balance-sheet pain: 375 domestic company-operated Shacks drive the core business, while 232 licensed units spread the brand without funding every kitchen yourself.
How they make money
~$1.45B
annual revenue · their business grew +15.4% last year
domestic company-operated shacks
$1.32B
+15.4%
domestic licensed shacks
$0.03B
+2.1%
international licensed shacks
$0.08B
+15.4%
other revenue
$0.02B
+15.4%
The products that matter
operating burger restaurants
Company-Operated Restaurants
~$1.45B revenue · +15.4%
segment rows on this page sum to about $1.45B; the company-operated domestic line is most of that. management targets 55–60 openings in 2026 on that operating base.
entire business
Key numbers
$1.65
fy2027 eps est
$3B
fy2029 rev est
71.3x
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- net profit margin 5.3% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 17% — $0.17 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SHAK 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,200.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Shake Shack posted $0.37 in EPS (q), missing the $0.41 estimate, even as revenue reached $400.53M in the quarter.
The quiet part out loud: traffic improved, but profit still lagged the setup. Same-store sales rose 2.1% vs. prior year, driven by price mix and traffic, yet the market still got an EPS miss of 9.76%.
$400.53M
rev (q)
$0.37
eps (q)
2.1%
same-store sales
the number that mattered
The 9.76% EPS miss mattered most because a stock at 71.3x earnings does not get much forgiveness for small execution slips.
-
shake shack’s fourth-quarter operating results were likely a mixed bag.indeed, the company preannounced fourth-quarter sales of $400.5 million on january 12th, ahead of an investor conference in orlando, florida. the tally was about $9 million-$10 million below our estimate and the consensus, thanks to inclement weather in the northeast, one of the company’s more-heavily penetrated markets.
-
although no earnings guidance was given, we shaved a nickel off our estimate to account for the sales miss.
-
even so, samestore sales increased 2.1% vs. prior year, driven by a combination of price mix and traffic.
-
importantly, this marked the second-consecutive period, where customer counts increased.looking ahead, management guided 2026 revenues to a range of $1.6 billion-$1.7 billion, and net income in a range of $50 million-$60 million. we have found leadership’s guidance to be conservative in the past, thus our net income estimate is slightly above the high end of that range.
-
the new store openings pipeline remains full.in fact, the current pipeline is the largest in the company’s history, with management expecting to open 55-60 new stores this year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is store-level margin pressure from labor and ingredient costs.
med
labor and ingredient inflation
A 4.0% net margin does not give management much cushion. If wages, beef, dairy, or freight move the wrong way, the earnings math gets ugly fast.
At $1.4B in revenue, even a small cost miss can erase a meaningful chunk of profit.
med
55–60 new openings have to land cleanly
This valuation needs unit growth. Delays, weaker new-store productivity, or higher pre-opening costs would hit both the growth story and the multiple investors are willing to pay.
The expansion plan is the engine. If it stumbles, the stock loses its main narrative support.
med
same-store sales are positive, but only 2.1%
That is progress, not dominance. If traffic softens again, the market will start asking whether the brand still has room to take price and grow visits at the same time.
With a 71.3x trailing p/e, this stock is priced for positive comps to continue.
A restaurant business with ~5.3% net margins on this page’s consolidated read and a 71.3x earnings multiple does not have much room for operational slippage.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
same-store sales staying positive
2.1% comp growth is good enough to keep the story alive. A slip back below zero would hit sentiment fast.
metric
55–60 planned openings
This is the clearest operating target on the page. If new shacks slip, the growth case weakens immediately.
calendar
next earnings release
The next quarterly update should tell you whether the weather-related sales miss was a one-off or the start of softer traffic.
trend
2026 guide versus actual pace
Management guided to $1.6B–$1.7B in revenue and $50M–$60M in net income. Watch whether quarterly results are actually tracking there.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts expect this to lag most stocks near term.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the middle on risk, not especially safe and not a disaster.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is not giving the bull case much help right now.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
earnings predictability means how steady results tend to be. At 20 / 100, expect a bumpier ride than the average consumer stock.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
179 buyers vs. 195 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 42.1M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$72
$167
$93
current price
$120
target midpoint · +29% from current · 3-5yr high: $180 (+95% · 18% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive