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what it is
Smithfield sells pork, bacon, sausage, and packaged meat through 39 plants across 19 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Smithfield Foods made $14.1B in revenue.
what just happened
Smithfield's latest quarter was fine, but the real point is that $0.58 in EPS kept full-year expectations moving higher.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
9.6x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$2.40 fy2026 eps est
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Smithfield sells pork, bacon, sausage, and packaged meat through 39 plants across 19 states.
Smithfield controls more of its own meat supply than most peers. Vertical integration (owning multiple steps of production) → less dependence on outsiders → more control when markets get messy. About 80% of Packaged Meats raw materials come from its Fresh Pork business, so when you buy the stock, you are buying a company that feeds its own factories.
How they make money
$14.1B
annual revenue
total revenue
$14.1B
n/a
The products that matter
produces and sells pork products
Packaged Meats & Fresh Pork
$14.1B revenue · sole segment
it's the entire $14.1B business, and management is targeting roughly $15.35B next. if this segment stumbles, the company stumbles with it.
100% of revenue
integrated hog supply chain
Hog Production
offset lever inside the model
the recent quarter showed why it matters: higher hog production profits helped offset raw material pressure elsewhere in the same $14.1B system.
built-in hedge
processing and distribution footprint
Plant Network
39 plants · 19 states
39 processing plants across 19 states give Smithfield national scale. that's useful in meat packing, where a lot of the game is keeping product moving and costs under control.
scale matters
Key numbers
9.6x
trailing p/e
P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) → how much investors pay for each dollar of profit → you are paying a below-market multiple for a profitable food business.
4.7%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → annual cash payout as a share of stock price → almost half your expected 18-month upside comes from cash paid to you.
11.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → on $15B of FY2026 estimated revenue, that points to roughly $1.65B of operating income.
$2.40
fy2026 eps
EPS (earnings per share) → profit per share → at a $22.61 stock price, Smithfield only needs to hold this earnings level to keep the valuation looking cheap.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- long-term debt $2.0B (18% of capital)
- net profit margin 6.6% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SFD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Smithfield's latest quarter was fine, but the real point is that $0.58 in EPS kept full-year expectations moving higher.
Value Line says September-quarter earnings from continuing operations were $0.58 a share, up nearly 10% vs. prior year and above its estimate. That led Value Line to raise full-year 2025 revenue and EPS estimates.
$11.3B
revenue
$1.68
eps
13.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$0.58 mattered because it showed earnings held up well enough for to raise its 2025 outlook, which is the closest thing this stock gets to drama.
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smithfield foods delivered better-than-expected september-quarter results.
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specifically, the company posted earnings from continuing operations of $0.58 a share.
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that figure exceeded our estimate and was up nearly 10% vs. prior year.smithfield’s vertical business model (it produces both live hogs and processed pork products) helped, as higher hog production segment profits more than offset raw material cost headwinds in the fresh pork and packaged meats units.
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we are raising our full-year 2025 revenue and earnings-per-share estimates.
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at the top line, an advance of 5% to 10%, to $15.35 billion, is likely, as the company should continue to benefit from the ongoing problems in the beef industry.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is hog and feed-cost volatility.
med
hog and feed-cost volatility
this is a meat processor with a 6.1% net margin. when input costs jump, there isn't much room to absorb the hit before earnings feel it.
a cost shock hits the core economics of a $14.1B revenue business
med
raw material pressure in fresh pork and packaged meats
the last quarter worked because hog production profits offset pressure elsewhere. if that offset weakens, packaged meats and fresh pork have to carry more of the load.
the recent 6.7% quarterly margin is not something you can take for granted
med
the beef-industry tailwind fades
part of the 2025 growth case depends on consumers shifting toward pork while beef has problems. if that substitution slows, the path to $15.35B gets harder.
that puts pressure on the expected 5–10% revenue advance
on $14.1B in revenue and a 6.1% net margin, Smithfield does not need a disaster to disappoint you. it just needs costs to move the wrong way for a couple of quarters.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
the next earnings print
you want to see whether the recent $0.58 continuing-operations beat was a one-quarter win or part of a steadier margin recovery.
trend
hog profits versus packaged-meat pressure
last quarter, hog production profits more than offset raw material pressure. that's the internal offset that matters most right now.
metric
the $15.35B revenue path
management is aiming for a 5–10% advance to roughly $15.35B. every quarter either keeps that path intact or starts walking it back.
risk
beef-industry spillover
part of the demand case rests on problems in beef. if that normalizes, pork loses an external tailwind it did not create.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means this sits near the middle of the pack. in human-speak, analysts see a normal cyclical stock, not a bunker and not a grenade.
valuation setup
cheap
9.6x trailing earnings is a below-market multiple. the market is paying you less for each dollar of profit because it doesn't fully trust the durability of those profits.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 166 buyers vs. 33 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 47.4M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$19
$30
$23
current price
$25
target midpoint · +11% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+55% · 15% ann'l return)
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