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what it is
Sera sells a blood test meant to flag premature birth risk before the pregnancy gets expensive and dangerous.
how it gets paid
Last year Sera Prognostics made $77K in revenue. PreTRM test sales was the main engine at $40K, or 52% of sales.
what just happened
The quarter showed $71K in revenue, but EPS fell to -$0.51, so growth is still getting crushed by costs.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
-$0.99 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
n/a operating margin
1.0 beta
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
Sera sells a blood test meant to flag premature birth risk before the pregnancy gets expensive and dangerous.
Sera's edge is simple: PreTRM is described as the only broadly validated, commercially available blood-based biomarker test for premature birth risk. You are not buying scale here. You are buying a single test with a first-mover position in a huge problem, backed by 63 employees trying to turn clinical proof into payer adoption.
How they make money
$77K
annual revenue
PreTRM test sales
$40K
Predictive analytics services
$18K
Data and biomarker licensing
$12K
Research support services
$7K
The products that matter
preterm birth risk assessment
PreTRM test
$16K Q3 2025 revenue
This is the entire commercial story right now. The test produced $16K in quarterly revenue while company EBITDA ran at -$36.6M. In human-speak: adoption is still too early to call proven.
100% of revenue
clinical evidence base
PRIME study
5,018 patients
The 2026-01-07 publication is the strongest proof point on the page. It reportedly showed reduced early preterm births. The catch: better evidence does not automatically become better billing.
key catalyst
Key numbers
$2B
2026 sales estimate
Contrast frame: a $2B sales estimate sits next to EDGAR's $77K annual revenue. That is not growth. That is a canyon.
$77K
annual revenue
Revenue is what customers actually paid. Here, customers paid less in a year than many biotech CEOs make in a week.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → profit after expenses → so what: the business model is nowhere near self-supporting yet.
$2M
long-term debt
Debt is only 3% of capital. That means the balance sheet problem is not lenders. It's turning science into paying customers.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $2M (3% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SERA right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter showed $71K in revenue, but EPS fell to -$0.51, so growth is still getting crushed by costs.
Revenue rose 344% vs. prior year from a tiny base. EPS worsened 219% vs. prior year, which tells you the company is still spending far ahead of sales.
$71K
revenue
$0.51
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
$71K matters because it proves there is some demand, but it is still microscopic against the cost structure.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
SERA has one commercial product, $77K in annual revenue, and -$36.6M of EBITDA. That means the biggest risks are not abstract. They are visible in the current income statement.
high
PreTRM adoption stays tiny
Q3 2025 revenue was $16K and annual revenue was $77K. If those numbers do not inflect, the core equity story breaks because the company has only one product to monetize.
100% of current revenue depends on one test finding a real market
high
cash burn forces dilution into the story
EBITDA was -$36.6M while trailing revenue was roughly $0.1M. In plain English: capital raises can matter more than operating progress if sales stay near zero.
Small debt is manageable. Large losses with tiny revenue are the real financing risk.
med
clinical proof does not become reimbursement
The 5,018-patient PRIME study strengthens the science case. It does not guarantee payer coverage, physician adoption, or routine ordering behavior. Those are commercial hurdles, not clinical ones.
A stronger evidence base can still produce weak revenue if the buying path stays blocked.
med
the forecast gap becomes a credibility gap
The page shows a $2B fy2026 revenue estimate against $77K of annual revenue and a $5.10 average price target against a $3.09 stock price. If operating results do not start narrowing that distance, investor patience gets shorter.
High expectations attached to a tiny base make every quarter feel like a referendum.
A business with $77K in annual revenue and -$36.6M of EBITDA does not have much room for another year where sales stay mostly symbolic.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q4 2025 earnings on March 18
You need more than another loss number. Watch whether revenue moves above the $16K Q3 base and whether management gives a commercialization update with specifics.
trend
revenue that looks commercial, not experimental
Annual revenue is $77K after a 66.7% decline. The next few quarters need to show a launch curve, not isolated test orders.
metric
EBITDA burn versus sales traction
- $36.6M of EBITDA against roughly $0.1M of trailing revenue is the core mismatch. If losses stay large while sales stay microscopic, financing risk becomes the story.
risk
whether PRIME changes payer and physician behavior
The 5,018-patient study is real progress. The harder follow-through is reimbursement progress, physician adoption, and repeatable ordering activity.
Analyst rankings
average price target
$5.10
That sits 65% above the current $3.09 share price. In human-speak: the street still sees upside if commercialization finally shows up in the numbers.
beta
1.0
Beta measures how a stock tends to move versus the market. A 1.0 beta says market-like sensitivity, but the 5 / 100 price stability score says the ride can still feel rough.
risk rank
3
Risk rank is a broad safety read. Here it means safer than roughly half of stocks, which sounds comforting until you remember the business still has $77K in annual revenue.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for SERA is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$3
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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