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what it is
Sea runs Shopee shopping, Garena gaming, and SeaMoney payments across Southeast Asia.
how it gets paid
Last year Sea made $16.8B in revenue. Shopee marketplace services was the main engine at $8.9B, or 53% of sales.
what just happened
Sea posted $0.63 in quarterly EPS versus a $0.55 estimate, a 14.55% beat.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 39/100 — weak
$38B fy2028 rev est
What they do
Sea runs Shopee shopping, Garena gaming, and SeaMoney payments across Southeast Asia.
Sea owns your shopping app, your game wallet, and your checkout button. That matters because it already does $16.8 billion in annual revenue. Switching costs (pain of moving) are real when your seller tools, payments, and customer traffic sit in one system.
How they make money
$16.8B
annual revenue
Shopee marketplace services
$8.9B
+35.8%
Shopee value-added services
$3.5B
+35.8%
SeaMoney
$2.4B
+54.5%
Garena
$2.0B
muted
The products that matter
e-commerce marketplace
Shopee
~$12.4B combined · ~74% of revenue
Marketplace services (~$8.9B) plus value-added services (~$3.5B) sum to the Shopee cluster on the table—both grew about 35.8% here. this is the center of gravity.
core engine
digital entertainment and gaming
Garena
$2.0B · ~12% of revenue
Digital entertainment prints at $2.0B on the segment table—mature/muted next to Shopee. you still need it when other lines hit a speed bump.
profit cushion
digital financial services
SeaMoney
$2.4B · ~14% of revenue
Fintech revenue is $2.4B here with about +54.5% growth—the fastest line on the table. if that growth leans on subsidies or credit costs, the company-wide ~13% operating margin can thin fast.
fastest growth
Key numbers
54.5%
SeaMoney growth
Segment rate from the revenue table—not consolidated Sea revenue growth. Do not headline this as “all of Sea.”
13.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → so what: Sea is no longer just buying growth with losses.
10.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → how well management turns investment into profit → so what: decent, but not yet elite for a $72B company.
$154
18-month target
Target price → where the shares may trade in 18 months → so what: the upside is 27%, but the low-end range still goes to $90.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $1.3B (2% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.7% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SE 3 years ago → it's now worth $20,200.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Sea posted $0.63 in EPS versus a $0.55 estimate, a 14.55% beat.
That beat matters because sentiment has been getting worse, with the shares lower since late September and the outlook rank cut to 4. Gross margin was 42.8%, which says the business still has room to absorb pressure.
$16.8B
revenue (TTM)
$0.63
eps (Q)
42.8%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the $0.08 EPS beat, because clearing estimates by 14.55% buys management credibility in a nervous tape.
-
shares of sea limited have traded considerably lower in price since late september.the stock has faced selling pressure as competition from the company's regional rivals such as grab holdings (in southeast asia) and mercadolibre (in brazil) has forced the company to increase spending on marketing and logistics in order to maintain market share. investors appear to be worried that the company's decision to maintain market share will hurt profitability.
-
international trade tensions have been a headwind here, too.we also think that the stock's expensive valuation left it particularly vulnerable to negative investor sentiment. the recent announcement of a $1 billion share repurchase program should support the share price. The company has reported strong comparisons lately, and this pattern will likely continue. revenues and earnings per share should advance nicely from 2026 onward, albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years.
-
the company's e-commerce and digital finance penetration remains low but is increasing.on the e-commerce side, shopee should continue to experience rising orders and gross merchandise volume. meanwhile, the digital financial services business ought to further benefit from user growth and product expansion in several markets. elsewhere, rising bookings should drive revenue higher at the digital entertainment line. This stock is ranked to trail the broader market for the coming six to 12 months. looking further out, we anticipate solid growth in revenues and earnings for the company over the pull to late decade.
-
following the aforementioned selloff, these shares offer attractive recovery potential.despite the recent share price weakness, wall street continues to hold a favorable view of the stock, and a sharp rebound in price sometime in the next year or two would hardly be surprising.
-
risk-tolerant accounts seeking exposure to asian markets may want to take a closer look.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Shopee and SeaMoney adding revenue faster than they add durable profit.
high
margin compression in the growth engines
the market just punished Sea after a quarter with 36% revenue growth and $1.6B in net income. that tells you investors think margin quality is the issue, not demand.
the stock dropped about 10% in early 2026 on margin concerns — roughly a $7.2B market cap swing
med
e-commerce competition in the core business
TikTok and Lazada are not background noise. Shopee’s reported revenue lines sum to about ~$12.4B here—roughly three-fourths of consolidated sales—and management is still asking you to underwrite aggressive GMV targets.
pressure on Shopee means pressure on the segment carrying most of the company
low
indonesia competition-law scrutiny
Shopee is under investigation for alleged competition-law violations in indonesia alongside Lazada. once regulators show up in a core market, growth assumptions stop being purely operational.
potential fines or operating restrictions would land in one of Sea's most important markets
Shopee and SeaMoney are $12.6B of the $16.8B revenue base. if those two keep growing while margins stay under pressure, Garena stops looking like a ballast and starts looking too small to matter.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
Shopee's 25% GMV target
this is the scorecard for the Shopee cluster that makes up about three-fourths of revenue on this page. hit it, and the growth case survives. miss it, and the debate shifts from valuation to credibility.
trend
SeaMoney growth versus group margin
SeaMoney grew about 54.5% on the segment table. the question is whether that pace can coexist with a ~13% operating margin instead of wearing it down.
risk
indonesia regulatory outcome
watch the competition probe around Shopee and Lazada. regulatory friction in a core market changes the math faster than a marketing campaign does.
calendar
the next earnings print
the last report made the new rule clear: 36% growth will not carry the stock if profit quality weakens again.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — analysts see weaker near-term performance. in human-speak, they are not rushing to buy the dip.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this stock is more volatile than most. you should expect wider swings than the market.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no unusual signal here. the chart is not rescuing the fundamentals.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
quarterly results have been hard to model. translation: if you own this, surprises are part of the deal.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 486 buyers vs. 373 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$90
$217
$121
current price
$154
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $290 (+140% · 24% ann'l return)
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