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what it is
Shoe Carnival sells family footwear and accessories through 428 stores and its website across 36 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Shoe Carnival made $1.2B in revenue. athletic shoes was the main engine at $0.43B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.3% last year. Gross margin at 37.0% is the number to watch because a 1-point swing on $1.2B of annual revenue is about $12M.
what just happened
Revenue hit $881M and EPS reached $1.57, both up roughly 196%-197% vs. prior year.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
8.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.4% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Shoe Carnival sells family footwear and accessories through 428 stores and its website across 36 states.
This is a convenience moat. You walk into an 11,000-square-foot store, see about 28,800 pairs, and usually leave with something. That matters because each store averages about $2.4 million in annual sales, and 428 stores give the chain buying scale that a local shoe shop cannot match.
How they make money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +2.3% last year
athletic shoes
$0.43B
women's non-athletic footwear
$0.30B
men's non-athletic footwear
$0.22B
children's footwear
$0.16B
accessories and shoe care
$0.10B
The products that matter
family footwear retail stores
Shoe Carnival + Shoe Station
$1.14B trailing revenue · 1.3% market share
It's effectively one retail business spread across two banners. The numbers matter because $1.14B in sales sounds large until you place it next to an $88B market and realize how little pricing power that buys you.
36% gross margin
Key numbers
8.3x
p/e ratio
You are paying 8.3 times earnings for a company expected to do about $1B in sales. That is cheap if profits hold.
10.2%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the stores, before interest and taxes, so what: this chain keeps about 10 cents from each sales dollar.
3.4%
dividend yield
You are getting paid 3.4% a year to wait, which is real cash while the market decides whether 8.3x earnings is too cheap.
11.4%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit versus money tied up in the business, so what: management earns about 11 cents for every dollar invested.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $311M (38% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for SCVL right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $881M and EPS reached $1.57, both up roughly 196%-197% vs. prior year.
Gross margin held at 37.0%, which matters more than the headline jump. In a shoe chain, margin discipline tells you whether growth is real or just discounting with better lighting.
$881M
revenue
$1.57
eps
37.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Gross margin at 37.0% is the number to watch because a 1-point swing on $1.2B of annual revenue is about $12M.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Your main risk is traffic weakness hitting a low-moat footwear retailer. SCVL only controls about 1.3% of an $88B market, and its average 7.1% operating margin does not leave much cushion if promotions return.
high
margin pressure on a thin operating model
A 36% gross margin and 7.1% average operating margin work only if traffic holds up. When a retailer this small has to discount harder, the damage moves through earnings fast.
The current operating base is only about $85M at a 7.1% margin. You do not need a disaster for profit to get squeezed.
med
store conversion execution
Management is leaning on Shoe Station and banner conversions to improve the mix. That smaller banner is only about $260M of sales today versus roughly $940M from the legacy store base.
If conversions miss, the 22% piece of the business is not large enough to cover weakness in the other 78%.
low
capital return during an earnings reset
The dividend yield is 3.4%, and management just delivered its 12th straight dividend increase. That is shareholder-friendly, but it also commits cash while sales are guided down 7–9%.
Roughly $4M per quarter that goes to dividends is cash that does not go to debt reduction, conversions, or buybacks.
The cheap multiple is the bet. If gross margin slides back toward 36% and sales keep falling, 8.3x earnings will not feel like a bargain for long.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q4 2025 earnings on March 26, 2026
Results are due before the open, with the call at 9:00 a.m. ET. You want to hear whether the sales decline is easing or simply being masked by better margin.
strategy
whether Shoe Station starts to matter more
At about $260M of sales, the banner is still the smaller piece of the company. If management keeps centering the story on it, you need evidence that the format is scaling.
margin
gross margin after the 38.8% quarter
Q3 gross margin jumped to 38.8%. If that snaps back toward the long-run 36% level, the recent quarter will look more like a clearance win than a durable improvement.
management
CEO transition execution
A leadership change during a soft sales stretch is a real operating risk. Listen for what changes, what does not, and whether capital allocation stays steady.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see this as a steady quarter-after-quarter story.
risk rank
3
That puts SCVL around the middle of the pack for risk. Not a bunker stock, not the most fragile name in retail either.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for SCVL is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$17
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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