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what it is
Boston Beer sells beer, tea, cider, and seltzer under brands like Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, Angry Orchard, and Truly.
how it gets paid
Last year Boston Beer made $2.0B in revenue. Twisted Tea was the main engine at $0.90B, or 45% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 2.4% last year. Following an earlier-year rally, the stock declined roughly 10% in value since our october review.
what just happened
The last report landed with a -$2.09 EPS result versus a -$0.13 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
22.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
11.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
Boston Beer sells beer, tea, cider, and seltzer under brands like Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, Angry Orchard, and Truly.
This business wins on shelf space and brand memory. Boston Beer sold about 7.6 million barrels last year, according to, which means your local cooler probably already works for them. Brand equity (people ask for it by name) → repeat purchases → so what: that supports an 11.0% operating margin even after a rough revenue year.
How they make money
$2.0B
annual revenue · their business grew -2.4% last year
Twisted Tea
$0.90B
+8.0%
Truly Hard Seltzer
$0.54B
12.0%
Samuel Adams + Dogfish Head
$0.36B
0.0%
Angry Orchard
$0.16B
+4.0%
Other beverages
$0.04B
0.0%
The products that matter
brews and sells beverage alcohol
Beer, Cider & Seltzer Portfolio
$2.0B revenue · entire company
this $2.0B portfolio is the whole story, and it fell 2.4% last year. management does not give you a separate growth engine here, so your bet lives or dies on this line stabilizing.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
11.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → so what: this is decent for beverages, but not fat enough to hide bad execution.
22.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many dollars you pay for $1 of profit → so what: SAM is priced for recovery, not disaster.
$2.0B
annual revenue
Revenue → total sales → so what: this is a real scaled beverage company, even after a 2.4% decline.
11.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money tied up in the business → so what: acceptable, not elite.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- net profit margin 4.3% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 11% — $0.11 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in SAM 3 years ago → it's now worth $5,900.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The last report landed with a -$2.09 EPS result versus a -$0.13 estimate.
That is a miss of about $1.96 per share, based on Yahoo Finance consensus data. Gross margin was 49.7%, but profit still swung hard, which tells you the cost structure is doing its own thing.
$2.0B
revenue
-$2.09
eps
49.7%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the roughly $1.96 per-share miss, because it reminded you this stock still trades like a stable brand company while reporting like a moody project.
-
shares of boston beer displayed volatile tendencies in 2025.
-
following an earlier-year rally, the stock declined roughly 10% in value since our october review.
-
steep fluctuations are highlighted in sam’s wide 52-week trading range.
-
financial performances for the first nine months of last year were uneven, with encouraging earnings results overshadowing nominal sales declines.investors should note our $1.52 september earnings presentation excludes a $29.1 million impairment gain from the dogfish brand, which equated to a $2.73 share gain.
-
if included on a non-gaap basis, boston beer earned $4.25 during the 2025 third quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is core beer, cider, and hard seltzer demand failing to stabilize.
med
the revenue base keeps slipping
Revenue already fell 2.4% last year and the latest quarter fell 11% from a year ago. If that pattern holds, the turnaround thesis stops being a thesis and starts being a denial strategy.
This pressure sits on the full $2.0B revenue base.
med
thin margins leave little room for mistakes
A 5.5% net margin and 10.5% operating margin give you some cushion, not much. In a promotional beverage market, weak sell-through can hit earnings faster than the income statement first suggests.
At current margins, a few points of lost volume matter more than they would at a higher-quality consumer staple.
med
the multiple assumes stabilization before it is visible
At 22.0x trailing earnings, this is not a washed-out special situation. You are paying for the idea that sales stop shrinking and EPS keeps rebuilding.
If revenue stays around $2.0B or lower, the stock can lose the benefit of the doubt.
All three risks point to the same math: one $2.0B portfolio, a 5.5% net margin, and no second profit engine to offset a weak shelf set or softer demand.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
whether annual revenue can move above the current $2.0B base
That is the cleanest scoreboard on the page. If the business cannot grow from here, the recovery story stays mostly cosmetic.
risk
whether 10.5% operating margin holds
You can survive a sluggish category with decent margins. You cannot survive both weak demand and weaker margins at the same time.
next catalyst
the next earnings print after the $537M quarter
You want evidence that $537M was a soft patch, not the new baseline. One better quarter will not settle it, but another weak one will say a lot.
sentiment
how long institutions keep buying into the wobble
Net buying for three straight quarters helps. The scale matters too: 174 buyers versus 166 sellers is support, not conviction mania.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this could lag from here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle of the road. not especially safe, not especially wild.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a dramatic message either way.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
earnings predictability is low. translation: this company has made estimating the next print harder than it should be.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 174 buyers vs. 166 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 8.0M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$170
$327
$198
current price
$249
target midpoint · +26% from current · 3-5yr high: $470 (+140% · 24% ann'l return)
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