XVARY Composite Score
61
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Saia moves smaller freight shipments across 48 states with 214 facilities, 6,600 tractors, and 26,200 trailers.
How it gets paid
Last year Saia made $3.2B in revenue. Core LTL freight was the main engine at $2.62B, or 82% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.8% last year. Revenue held up better than profit. That is freight in one sentence: volume can look okay while costs quietly eat the quarter.
What just happened
Saia just posted $1.77 in EPS, below the $1.90 estimate, while revenue still hit a quarterly record near $789.9 million.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
38.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 61/100 — average
What They Do
Saia moves smaller freight shipments across 48 states with 214 facilities, 6,600 tractors, and 26,200 trailers.
This is a scale business. You do not wake up and casually recreate 214 facilities, 6,600 tractors, and 26,200 trailers across 48 states. LTL (less-than-truckload) → combining many smaller shipments on one network → so what: the bigger the network, the harder it is for your freight to find a cheaper, reliable alternative.
How They Make Money
$3.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.8% last year
Core LTL freight
$2.62B
+0.8%
Brokered truckload
$0.22B
2.0%
Expedited transportation
$0.16B
+4.0%
Canada and Mexico partner freight
$0.12B
+6.0%
Other value-added services
$0.08B
+3.0%
The Products That Matter
Moves shared-trailer freight
Less-Than-Truckload Services
$3.2B revenue · 100% of sales
it's the entire business. all $3.2B of revenue comes from moving shipments that do not fill a full truck on their own.
entire revenue base
Network density and service
LTL Network Operations
9.8% net margin · 0.8% growth
this is not a separate disclosed segment. it's the operational lever that matters. on just 0.8% revenue growth, Saia still produced a 9.8% net margin. that tells you execution held up better than demand.
operating leverage
Earnings power in a recovery
Freight Recovery Upside
$9.65 full-year EPS · 38.1x p/e
this is the part the stock is already discounting. full-year EPS fell to $9.65, yet the shares trade at 38.1x trailing earnings. you are paying for better conditions next, not the conditions on the page today.
valuation bet
Key Numbers
38.1x
trailing p/e
You are paying a premium multiple for a trucking company with 0.8% annual revenue growth. That is the whole argument.
10.9%
operating margin
This tells you how much profit Saia keeps after running the network. In freight, a point of margin matters because costs are heavy.
11.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money put into the business → so what: Saia is solid, but not elite, for a stock priced like one.
$218M
long-term debt
Debt is only 2% of capital, which gives Saia room to ride out a weak freight market without a balance-sheet panic.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $218M (2% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.5% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in SAIA 3 years ago → it's now worth $12790.
The index would have given you $13880.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Saia just posted $1.77 in EPS, below the $1.90 estimate, while revenue still hit a quarterly record near $789.9 million.
Revenue held up better than profit. That is freight in one sentence: volume can look okay while costs quietly eat the quarter.
$789.9M
revenue
$1.77
eps
6.8%
vs estimate
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the $1.77 EPS print, because it missed the $1.90 estimate by 6.8% and reminded you that pricing power is not magic.
-
The company was set to release year end results shortly after this issue went to press.we are expecting the soft trends of the past year to continue in the final stanza and for management to report a generally flat quarter. consumer spending has been weak for much of the past year amidst the changing tariff landscape while residential construction remains challenged by high mortgage rates. also, saia expanded into the slowing environment of 2025 and the added costs of underutilized facilities weighed heavily on the bottom line.
-
We do think business is poised to pick up for saia in 2026.recently, after contracting in december the institute of supply management's index turned the corner and indicated the economy has started expanding. this aligns with shipping data released by management that showed volumes increased in november from a year ago after contracting in october. real consumer incomes have been rising for several months and commercial construction is expected to get a lift from companies on-shoring production to avoid tariffs.
-
Basically, increased activity is good for shipping.as those new shipping terminals added in the past 18 months reach better utilization, earnings should begin to improve.
-
It may take some time, but the operating leverage could lead to a robust earnings recovery in 2027.
-
Saia shares are ranked to perform in line with the average equity for the year ahead.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is ltl demand staying soft while the stock remains priced for a freight recovery.
Med
Freight volumes stay weak
Saia has one real revenue engine: LTL shipping. With annual revenue growth at just 0.8%, another soft demand year would keep pressure on terminal utilization and pricing.
impact: this risk touches 100% of the company's $3.2B revenue base.
Med
Margin compression
Full-year EPS fell from $13.51 to $9.65 even though quarterly revenue was basically flat at $840M. That's what margin pressure looks like in an asset-heavy network.
impact: if earnings keep falling, a 38.1x trailing multiple stops looking like confidence and starts looking like denial.
Med
Valuation de-rating
The shares trade near the top of a $229–$376 52-week range and already discount a better freight tape ahead. Premium multiples work both ways when estimates reset lower.
impact: the stock does not need a broken balance sheet to fall. It just needs the recovery to arrive later than investors expect.
a weaker freight cycle would pressure all $3.2B of revenue, and the valuation means you do not need a disaster for the stock to reprice lower.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Key metric
Whether growth moves above 0.8%
the stock is priced like a recovery story. revenue still looks like a stall story. that gap is the whole setup.
Trend
EPS versus revenue
revenue held near $840M in the quarter, but full-year EPS dropped from $13.51 to $9.65. you want to see profit stop falling faster than sales.
Risk
Freight demand and pricing
because one LTL segment drives 100% of revenue, even modest volume softness matters more here than in a diversified transport name.
Next report
The next earnings print
watch whether quarterly revenue moves decisively above $840M and whether margin improves from 7.9%. the market is waiting for proof, not promises.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means this sits in the market's middle lane — not defensive, not a chaos stock.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 suggests the chart is not giving you much help from here.
earnings predictability
65 / 100
good enough to model, not good enough to coast. expect a cyclical business to act cyclical.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
218 buyers vs. 210 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 29.6M shares.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$255
$618
$368
Current price
$437
Target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $525 (+45% · 9% ann'l return)
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