XVARY Composite Score
44
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
RXO helps shippers find truck capacity fast, then takes a fee without owning most of the trucks.
How it gets paid
Last year Rxo made $5.7B in revenue.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 26.2% last year. Latest-quarter revenue rose 201% vs. prior year to $4.3B.
What just happened
RXO posted $4.3B of quarterly revenue, but earnings still missed and stayed negative.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
8.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 44/100 — below average
$0.60 fy2027 eps est
What They Do
RXO helps shippers find truck capacity fast, then takes a fee without owning most of the trucks.
RXO’s edge is scale without fleets. Asset-light → it uses outside carriers instead of buying trucks → so what: long-term debt is $387M, just 13% of capital, which keeps the balance sheet cleaner than an asset-heavy hauler. If you’re a shipper, you care about coverage and speed, and a platform doing $5.7B of annual revenue has both.
How They Make Money
$5.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +26.2% last year
total revenue
$5.7B
+26.2%
The Products That Matter
Brokered freight matching
Freight Brokerage Platform
$5.7B revenue · +26.2% growth
it's the core business. the platform matched shippers and carriers across a $5.7B revenue base last year, but the 1.4% net margin tells you the economics are still thin.
1.4% net margin
Key Numbers
$28
18-month target
That target is 81% above $15.49, which tells you how washed out expectations already are.
4.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit before interest and taxes → so what: RXO has very little room for mistakes.
$387M
long-term debt
That is 13% of capital, which is manageable and fits the asset-light model.
1.55
beta
Beta → how jumpy a stock is versus the market → so what: RXO usually moves more than the index.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $387M (13% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.3% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 9% — $0.09 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
missed estimates
RXO posted $4.3B of quarterly revenue, but earnings still missed and stayed negative.
Latest-quarter revenue rose 201% vs. prior year to $4.3B, while EPS was -$0.32. Yahoo Finance also shows the last earnings result at -$0.07 versus -$0.05 expected, so the broad message is the same: scale arrived faster than clean profit.
$4.3B
revenue
$0.32
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The 201% revenue jump matters because it shows how much the Coyote deal changed RXO’s size, but not yet its earnings quality.
-
Results were expected to be reported shortly after this issue went to press.the deal closed in mid-september of 2024, as such, the recent fourth quarter performance was the first quarterly comparison on a like-for-like basis.
-
Volumes have declined vs. prior year, especially in the automotive sector.
-
Accordingly, we expect revenues to fall about 5% vs. prior year in the december quarter.
-
In addition to the weak demand, the normal seasonal uptick has been softer than usual.
-
We think business should begin to improve in 2026.trucking capacity is leaving the system, partly due to enforcement of laws that stringently regulate commercial drivers' licenses. it is leading to tighter supply and demand dynamics, which could lead to a sharper upswing once demand improves.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is margin compression in freight brokerage.
Med
Thin margins leave almost no buffer
RXO generated $5.7B of revenue last year but only a 1.4% net margin and 3.2% operating margin. In a brokerage model, that means small pricing mistakes or weaker freight demand show up quickly in earnings.
With profitability this thin, the difference between a good quarter and a bad one can be measured in pennies per share.
Med
The proposed $400M senior notes deal raises the pressure
RXO already carries $387M of long-term debt. If the proposed $400M senior notes offering closes, interest expense goes up while the business is still working through low-margin economics.
More debt on top of a 1.4% net margin is not a rounding error. It reduces the room management has to miss.
Med
Revenue can grow without shareholders feeling much of it
The business is expected to do $6B in revenue this year, yet EPS is only forecast at $0.05. That tells you the bear case clearly: scale keeps growing, but earnings power does not.
If revenue expands and EPS stays near breakeven, the stock stops looking cheap and starts looking structurally low-margin.
A $5.7B business earning a 1.4% net margin with $387M of debt does not have much margin for error. If the notes offering goes through, that cushion gets even thinner.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Key metric
Operating margin above 3.2%
Revenue growth already happened. The next rerating needs operating margin to move above 3.2%, not just more freight volume.
Balance sheet
Whether the $400M notes deal gets done
RXO has $387M of long-term debt today. Another $400M would make the capital structure a much bigger part of the story.
Earnings
The next EPS print after a -$0.08 quarter
Full-year results improved, but the latest quarter still lost money. You want to see whether that quarterly line moves toward positive territory.
Trend
Bottom-5% momentum rank versus a stock near its 52-week high
The stock is near the top of its $10–$16 range, yet the technical score is 5. Either the chart improves, or the price has some explaining to do.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts expect weaker relative performance in the next stretch.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — the balance sheet is decent, but the business model still carries normal cyclical risk.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the chart is weak enough that the stock is fighting the tape even with a long-term target above today's price.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 135 buyers vs. 116 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$12
$44
$15
Current price
$28
Target midpoint · +81% from current · 3-5yr high: $30 (+95% · 19% ann'l return)
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