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what it is
Riskified helps online merchants decide which orders, logins, and refunds are real before fraud turns into chargebacks.
how it gets paid
Last year Riskified made $345M in revenue. Chargeback Guarantee was the main engine at $330M, or 96% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.2% last year. $99.3M matters because it annualizes to roughly $397M.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue reached $99.3M, up 6% vs. prior year, and Riskified posted its first GAAP profit.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
-$0.20 fy2024 eps est
$328M fy2024 rev est
9.9% operating margin
1.4 beta
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Riskified helps online merchants decide which orders, logins, and refunds are real before fraud turns into chargebacks.
Fraud models get smarter with scale. Riskified serves large online merchants across the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Americas, and that gives it more transaction patterns to train on. You feel that moat when a merchant would rather pay one platform than eat chargeback losses with a 51.7% gross margin business behind the software.
How they make money
$345M
annual revenue · their business grew +5.2% last year
Chargeback Guarantee
$330M
+5.2%
Policy Protect
$6M
+0.0%
Account Secure
$4M
+0.0%
Dispute Resolve
$3M
+0.0%
PSD2 Optimize
$2M
+0.0%
The products that matter
guaranteed fraud approval
Chargeback Guarantee
96% of revenue
it drives 96% of the business. that's concentration, not diversification, and it means the core engine still decides the stock.
the main business
merchant protection tools
Policy Protect & AccountSecure
$15M–$20M 2026 guide
management expects $15M–$20M from these products in 2026. useful, but still small next to a company guiding to $372M–$384M total revenue.
proof needed
Key numbers
$0.20
2024 EPS est.
EPS → profit per share → so what: full-year profit is still expected below zero, so you are paying for improvement, not proof.
$345M
ttm revenue
This is the real size of the company today. Against a $620M market cap, you are paying about 1.8 times sales.
51.7%
gross margin
Gross margin → money left after direct costs → so what: the product economics are healthy, but overhead still eats the business alive.
9.9%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the company → so what: scale has not fixed the cost problem yet.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for RSKD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 2025 revenue reached $99.3M, up 6% vs. prior year, and Riskified posted its first GAAP profit.
The quarter worked because sales kept growing while profitability finally showed up. Reported EPS was $0.12 versus a $0.10 consensus estimate from web-tracked analyst data, while the latest annual gross margin on file was 51.7%.
$99.3M
revenue
$0.12
eps
51.7%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$99.3M matters because it annualizes to roughly $397M, which is well above the current $345M trailing revenue base.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is the chargeback guarantee business slowing before the new products matter.
med
growth is decelerating in plain sight
2026 revenue guidance of $372M–$384M implies 8–11% growth. That is down from 25% in 2023 and only a modest step above the 10.0% growth pace shown here for last year.
If growth sits near the low end of that range, the stock stops looking like a scaling platform and starts looking like a niche processor with a thinner multiple.
med
the business is still mostly one product
Chargeback Guarantee drives 96% of revenue. The products meant to broaden the story are guiding to $15M–$20M, which is only a small slice of a company targeting $372M–$384M total revenue.
If those products miss, the diversification thesis weakens and you are still left underwriting one core engine.
med
model errors hit margins fast
Riskified is not just scoring fraud. It is guaranteeing approved orders. When the model gets worse, payout costs go up, and that pressure lands on a 51.7% gross margin that already has to fund growth investment.
You do not need a collapse for this to matter. A few quarters of weaker underwriting would make the path to the guided ~8% EBITDA margin harder to trust.
This is a stock where 96% product concentration meets 8–11% growth guidance. If the new products do not close that gap, the valuation story gets harder to defend.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
scheduled for may 13, 2026. you want to see whether the first GAAP profitable quarter was a one-off or the start of a pattern.
growth
full-year revenue pace
guidance is $372M–$384M, or 8–11% growth. the stock needs a reason to believe the low end is too conservative.
product mix
new product revenue contribution
Policy Protect and AccountSecure are expected to add $15M–$20M. if that number stalls, the single-product problem stays the story.
margin quality
gross margin versus guarantee payouts
51.7% gross margin is decent. if underwriting costs climb, that cushion narrows fast and the ~8% EBITDA margin guide gets less believable.
Analyst rankings
coverage
thin
There is no clean ranking set in this snapshot. in human-speak, you should not outsource the thesis to consensus here.
earnings view
mixed
Q4 beat estimates, but the full-year frame still carries a -$0.20 EPS estimate. One quarter got better. The whole story is still catching up.
sentiment test
prove it
A $620M small cap with 8–11% growth guidance does not get the benefit of the doubt. It has to post the numbers first.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for RSKD is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$5
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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