Start here if you're new
what it is
Republic hauls, sorts, and buries trash, then charges fees for each step.
how it gets paid
Last year Republic Services made $16.6B in revenue. Collection services was the main engine at $8.0B, or 48% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.5% last year. Higher tipping fees and landfill pricing offset softer volumes.
what just happened
Republic beat EPS with $1.76, above the $1.61 estimate.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
32.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 86/100 — above average
What they do
Republic hauls, sorts, and buries trash, then charges fees for each step.
Republic owns 208 landfills, 248 transfer stations, and 75 recycling facilities. That is a local gatekeeper business, not a logo business. Your trash has to go somewhere nearby, and nearby is what Republic already owns.
How they make money
$16.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.5% last year
Collection services
$8.0B
+4.0%
Disposal services
$4.4B
+5.0%
Processing services
$2.0B
+3.0%
Recycling services
$1.6B
+1.0%
Other services
$0.6B
0.0%
The products that matter
collection, recycling, and disposal
Waste Collection & Disposal
$16.6B revenue
this is the whole $16.6B machine. the snapshot does not show a hidden growth segment, which means your bet is on steady pricing, route density, and disciplined execution.
the whole story
Key numbers
19.9%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after basic running costs → every $100 of sales leaves $19.90.
11.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit on money tied up in the business → every $100 invested earns $11.50.
32.2x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus last year's earnings → you pay 32.2 times profit.
1.2%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash back each year → every $100 invested sends you $1.20.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 100 / 100
- long-term debt $12.4B (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 15.1% — keeps 15 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in RSG 3 years ago → it's now worth $18,250.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Republic beat EPS with $1.76, above the $1.61 estimate.
Higher tipping fees and landfill pricing offset softer volumes. Annual revenue still rose 3.5% to $16.6B.
$4.1B
revenue
$1.76
eps
39.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
EPS was $1.76, which beat $1.61 by $0.15, or 9.3%.
-
republic services likely ended 2025 on a rare down note.the company was expected to report the full tally for the past year shortly after this issue went to press.
-
slower residential construction and economic activity outside of the technology sector has led to what we believe will be lower profits in the second half of 2025.
-
that said, despite lower volumes of trash hauled this year, the company has good pricing power at its landfills.
-
higher tipping fees have likely enabled the company to report about 3% bottom-line growth for the full year.
-
there are some positive indicators for 2026.new home building and remodeling is likely to remain slow until mortgage rates drop, but commercial construction is picking up.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is legal and regulatory scrutiny around republic services' operating practices.
med
securities fraud investigations
republic services faces multiple securities fraud investigations and shareholder lawsuits. even if the operating business stays steady, legal process can drag on sentiment.
the direct hit is not in current revenue. the real risk is multiple pressure on a stock already trading at 32.2x earnings.
med
antitrust scrutiny
as the second-largest player in waste services, republic services draws more regulatory attention than a local hauler would. the moat that helps margins also attracts questions.
if regulators push on market power, the pressure lands on pricing in a $16.6B business built on local density.
med
governance overhang
a corporate governance investigation was announced in march 2026. that does not change trash pickup tomorrow, but it can change how much investors will pay for the same earnings stream.
RSG scores 100 / 100 on price stability. a governance cloud matters more when the market has grown used to calm.
none of these risks breaks the route business today, but they sit over a stock at 32.2x earnings where any crack in the clean, defensive narrative matters.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
watch whether revenue stays near the recent $4.2B run rate and whether EPS keeps building from $1.76.
trend
collection volume
recent volume was negative 0.3%. if pricing keeps doing the heavy lifting while volume slips, the growth story gets thinner.
metric
margin discipline
12.9% margin is the number to defend. this stock can survive slow growth more easily than shrinking profitability.
risk
legal escalation
track whether investigations stay as overhangs or turn into formal actions. that is where defensive sentiment can change fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock still has enough support to beat most names over the next year.
risk profile
safest 5%
stability score 1 — lower risk of permanent damage than almost any stock on the board.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the stock's quality is clear, but the tape says a lot of that love is priced in.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
management gives numbers the market tends to trust. you are not signing up for drama here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
570 buyers vs. 589 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$191
$305
$216
current price
$248
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $280 (+30% · 8% ann'l return)
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