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what it is
Red Robin runs burger restaurants, sells franchise rights, and tries to turn Bottomless Steak Fries into repeat visits.
how it gets paid
Last year Red Robin Gourmet made $1.2B in revenue. burgers and sandwiches was the main engine at $0.66B, or 55% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.1% last year. The number that mattered was 3.1% operating margin because margin → leftover profit after running the restaurants → so what: on $1.2 billion of sales.
what just happened
The quarter said the same thing the full year said: Red Robin is still losing money, with EPS at -$1.11 in Q4 2024.
At a glance
C balance sheet — red flag territory — real financial stress
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$3.53 fy2024 eps est
$1B fy2024 rev est
3.1% operating margin
xvary composite: 25/100 — weak
What they do
Red Robin runs burger restaurants, sells franchise rights, and tries to turn Bottomless Steak Fries into repeat visits.
This is not a technology moat. It is a habit moat. Red Robin had 498 company-owned restaurants and 92 franchised locations at the end of 2024, so you already know the brand before you see the menu. If your family wants burgers, bottomless fries, and a place that works for kids and adults, Red Robin wins that vote more often than a local one-off.
How they make money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.1% last year
burgers and sandwiches
$0.66B
3.1%
fries, sides, and starters
$0.24B
3.1%
beverages and desserts
$0.12B
3.1%
donatos pizza and other entrees
$0.12B
0.0%
franchise and other revenue
$0.06B
5.5%
The products that matter
operated restaurant sales
Company-Owned Restaurants
$1.1B · 91.7% of mix
this is where almost all the money comes from. it declined 3.1%, which tells you the turnaround has to start in the dining room, not in financial engineering.
traffic-driven
franchise fee stream
Franchise Revenue
$100M · 8.3% of mix
this is the cleaner revenue line because it was flat while company-owned sales fell. the catch: at 8.3% of the mix, it is too small to rescue the whole story on its own.
smaller but steadier
traffic promotion
Bottomless Burger Pass
$20 promotion
the $20 pass drove traffic in a weak sales period. that helps fill seats, but if it trains customers to wait for discounts, the margin math gets worse before it gets better.
promotional lever
Key numbers
$476M
long-term debt
Debt → money the company owes lenders → so what: the debt pile is almost eight times the roughly $61 million market cap.
89%
debt in capital
Capital → the money stack funding the business → so what: nearly nine-tenths of that stack is debt, not shareholder money.
3.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit from running the restaurants before interest and taxes → so what: one bad quarter can wipe out a lot of earnings.
-$3.53
2024 EPS
EPS → profit per share → so what: Red Robin lost $3.53 per share in 2024, worse than the $1.45 loss in 2023.
Financial health
C
strength
- balance sheet grade C — very weak — significant financial distress
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $476M (89% of capital)
C — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for RRGB right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter said the same thing the full year said: Red Robin is still losing money, with EPS at -$1.11 in Q4 2024.
Quarterly EPS stayed negative all year in 2024: -$0.61, -$0.61, -$1.20, and -$1.11. Annual revenue was about $1.2 billion, down 3.1% vs. prior year, while the operating margin was only 3.1%.
$1.2B
annual revenue
$1.11
q4 eps
3.1%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was 3.1% operating margin because margin → leftover profit after running the restaurants → so what: on $1.2 billion of sales, there is barely any room for mistakes.
source: company filings and quarterly history, 2024
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What could go wrong
the top risk for red robin is refinancing $476M of debt due in 2027 while the operating business is still thin-margin.
med
2027 debt maturity
$476M of long-term debt sits against a $61M market cap and 89% debt as a share of capital. that is not a background detail. that is the capital structure.
if refinancing comes at harsher terms, cash flow gets squeezed and equity holders move further back in line.
med
same-store sales fail to turn positive fast enough
Q4 comparable restaurant revenue fell 2.4%. management is only guiding to 0.5–1.5% growth for 2026, which tells you the recovery case is modest even on management's numbers.
if comps stay flat or negative, the path to the $73M EBITDA target gets a lot narrower.
med
promotions drive traffic but pressure margin
the $20 Bottomless Burger Pass can bring people in the door. with only a 3.1% operating margin, there is not much room for discounting mistakes.
traffic bought with discounts is less valuable if the extra volume does not translate into enough operating profit to satisfy lenders.
this risk stack points to one simple equation: if EBITDA does not build toward $73M before 2027, the debt owns the conversation.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
debt
2027 refinancing progress
$476M due in 2027 is the whole plot. if you do not hear credible progress on refinancing or balance-sheet repair, the stock stays speculative.
comps
same-store sales versus the 0.5–1.5% guide
comparable sales tell you whether existing restaurants are improving. if that number keeps landing below guide, the turnaround case weakens fast.
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings
the next report is the first live test of whether the quarter's EPS beat was a blip or the start of better execution.
profit
EBITDA path toward $73M
this is the lender number. if management cannot show a believable path to $73M, equity upside turns into a hope trade.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not have a clean read on the next few quarters, and the company has not earned one.
risk rank
5
safer than only 5% of stocks. that is what a stressed balance sheet looks like in ranking form.
price stability
5 / 100
this stock does not trade like a steady compounder. you should expect swings, not serenity.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for RRGB is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$4
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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