Inc.

Rapid7 trades at 7.5x earnings after a roughly 60% stock collapse, while the 18-month target still sits at $30.

If you own Rapid7, you need to decide whether flat sales or a cheap price matters more.

rpd

general small cap updated jan 9, 2026
$15.41
market cap ~$1B · 52-week range $13–$41
xvary composite: 41 / 100 · below average
our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
Start here if you're new
what it is
Rapid7 sells software that helps companies find security holes, catch attacks, and automate the cleanup.
how it gets paid
Last year Inc. made $860M in revenue. Exposure management was the main engine at $258M, or 30% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.9% last year. Last earnings came in at $0.44 versus the $0.41 estimate.
what just happened
Rapid7 beat on EPS, but the real story was still slow growth, with revenue up just 1.9% for the year.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
Rapid7 sells software that helps companies find security holes, catch attacks, and automate the cleanup.
Rapid7 sits inside the security workflow before, during, and after an attack. That matters because 11,700 customers in 147 countries already use the platform, and 43% of the Fortune 100 are on it. Switching cost (moving tools is painful) → plain English: your team would have to rewire alerts, workflows, and investigations → so what: once Rapid7 is embedded, ripping it out is a hassle.
cybersecurity small-cap subscription-software turnaround enterprise-it
How they make money
$860M annual revenue · their business grew +1.9% last year
Exposure management
$258M
+2%
Threat detection and response
$232M
+1%
Managed services
$172M
+3%
Security operations automation
$129M
0%
Professional services and other
$69M
4%
The products that matter
threat detection and exposure management software
Cybersecurity Platform
$860M revenue · entire business
this is the full $860M revenue engine, and growth slowed to 1.9% last year. the snapshot does not break out faster-growing modules, which means you are underwriting the whole platform, not one breakout product.
entire revenue base
Key numbers
7.5x
trailing p/e
You are paying a market-multiple price for a cybersecurity name, which usually only happens when growth credibility breaks.
$860M
annual revenue
The company is already at real scale, but 1.9% growth tells you scale alone is not the story anymore.
70.8%
gross margin
Gross margin (profit after delivery costs) → plain English: the software itself is lucrative → so what: weak operating margin is a spending problem, not a product problem.
$891M
long-term debt
Debt this large matters because it narrows management's room for mistakes while growth is flat.
Financial health
C++
strength
  • balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
  • risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
  • price stability 15 / 100
  • long-term debt $891M (47% of capital)
  • net profit margin 14.5% — keeps 14 cents of every dollar in revenue
  • return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in RPD 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,520.

The index would have given you $13,920.

source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Rapid7 beat on EPS, but the real story was still slow growth, with revenue up just 1.9% for the year.
Last earnings came in at $0.44 versus the $0.41 estimate, a 7.32% beat. That is nice, but sales still look stuck, and management is asking investors to trust a turnaround.
$860M
revenue
$0.44
eps
70.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was 1.9% revenue growth, because earnings beats do not fix a cybersecurity company that stopped growing.
source: company earnings report, 2026

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What could go wrong

the top risk is stalled growth in rapid7's core cybersecurity platform.

med
growth stays stuck
Revenue grew just 1.9% on an $860M base. If that does not improve, the stock keeps trading like a slow software name no matter how low the p/e looks.
This pressure touches the entire $860M revenue base.
med
activist pressure returns
Jana already pushed for a sale, placed three directors on the board, and kept buying shares. That can create upside, but it also means strategy may be decided in the boardroom instead of the product line.
If a process restarts, you are underwriting event risk on top of weak operating momentum.
med
debt reduces room for error
Long-term debt sits at $891M, or 47% of capital, while the balance sheet grade is C++. That is manageable until growth stalls for longer than expected.
When leverage is this visible, disappointing quarters hit harder.
At $860M in revenue with $891M in long-term debt, Rapid7 does not have much room for a prolonged slowdown.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue growth above 1.9%
if growth stays pinned near 1.9% on an $860M base, the cheap multiple will keep looking earned.
risk
$891M of long-term debt
watch whether leverage becomes a bigger part of the story than margins. on a C++ balance sheet, that shift matters fast.
earnings
next print after full-year 2025
the last full-year number was $2.05 EPS versus $2.27 before. you need to see whether that decline was a trough or the new baseline.
trend
jana's next move
more buying or a fresh public push would tell you this is still a strategic situation, not just a patient turnaround.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge yet.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this stock swings more than most, so you should expect bigger moves in both directions.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a clean reversal signal.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings predictability is low. plain english: quarters can surprise you, and not in the fun way.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity

135 buyers vs. 113 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 62.1M shares.

source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$13 $47
$15 current price
$30 target midpoint · +95% from current · 3-5yr high: $30 (+95% · 19% ann'l return)
source: institutional data · analyst targets

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