rop

roper technologies, inc.
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deep dive technology · software large cap Jul 26, 2026
Position Long Price $367.34 ~$38.42B mcap Jul 26, 2026 as-of date

Intrinsic value of $395.00 implies 7.5% upside from the current $367.34 share price.

That intrinsic line rolls up bear, base, and bull by assigned weights, not one cherry-picked case. Plain English: "intrinsic value" means what the model says the stock is worth if the growth narrative mostly holds. It isn't a promise.

conviction
40/100
thesis confidence
12m price target
$395.00
base case
intrinsic value
$395.00
+7.5%
recommendation
Long
portfolio stance
overall signal score
76/100
Strong top-line, cash generation, and valuation dislocation; dampened by debt load and weak EPS growth
bullish signals
9
+12.3% revenue growth, 69.2% gross margin, 62.2% upside probability
bearish signals
4
0.52 current ratio, $9.30B long-term debt, $21.34B goodwill
data freshness
Live / FY2025 audited
Price updated Mar 24, 2026; audited financials through 2025-12-31

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report snapshot

executive summary

Intrinsic value of $395.00 implies 7.5% upside from the current $367.34 share price. The market is still not fully pricing High-Margin Core Business, while capital Allocation remains the main watch item.

Recommendation
Long
portfolio stance
12M Price Target
$395.00
+7.5% versus the verified $367.34 close
Intrinsic Value
$395.00
+7.5% versus the verified $367.34 close
core debate

Intrinsic value of $395.00 implies 7.5% upside from the current $367.34 share price. The market is still not fully pricing High-Margin Core Business, while capital Allocation remains the main watch item.

headline tape

$367.34 · ~$38.42B · as of Jul 26, 2026.

base case
$395.00
; if not, the goodwill stack becomes the market’s focal point for multiple compression.
bear case
$388
EPS stagnation, weak liquidity, and intangible-heavy balance sheet lead the market to stay skeptical.
top findings

Roper offers a rare combination of defensiveness and compounding: a portfolio of niche software and technology assets serving regulated or deeply embedded workflows, high recurring revenue, excellent free cash flow, and disciplined capital allocation. At the current price, investors are paying for quality, but not fully for the durability of mid-single-digit organic growth, margin resilience, and the option value of future bolt-on and platform acquisitions...

aggregate synthesis

Numbers can look similar while narrative labels diverge. Focus on which spreadsheet row the market is pricing.

variant perception & thesis

pm brief

Probability-weighted fair value is $395.00 per share.

1. High Margin Core Business

Confirmed

FY2025 revenue grew 12.3% to $7.90B while gross margin held at 69.2% and operating margin at 28.3%. Those are software-like economics, not the profile of a structurally weakening asset base...

2. Cash Earnings Are Better Than GAAP Optics

Confirmed

Operating cash flow was $2.54B versus net income of $1.54B, and EBITDA reached $3.13B. The market is keying off -1.0% EPS growth, but cash generation argues the core engine remains intact...

3. Capital Allocation Is the Crux

Monitoring

Goodwill rose to $21.34B and long-term debt increased to $9.30B, while ROIC was only 6.4%. That doesn't break the thesis today, but it means future upside depends more on disciplined deal returns than on multiple expansion alone...

4. Liquidity Is Thin but Still Serviceable

Monitoring

The current ratio is only 0.52, with $1.93B of current assets against $3.73B of current liabilities and cash of $297.4M. Offsetting that, interest coverage is 13.6x, so this is a watchpoint rather than an immediate solvency problem...

the 60-second pitch

Probability-weighted fair value is $395.00 per share. That implies a modest positive skew versus the current price of $367.34: downside exists if EPS conversion stays weak and debt load becomes a larger debate, but the stock is already below the DCF bear case of $388.26. With conviction at 40/100, this should be sized as a small position only, roughly 1-2% on a portfolio sizing discipline framework, with room to add only if EPS conversion or capital-allocation evidence improves.

financial analysis

elite economics
Revenue
$7.90B
FY2025, +12.3% YoY
Net Income
$1.54B
FY2025, -0.8% YoY
EPS
$14.20
FY2025 diluted, -1.0% YoY
Debt/Equity
0.47
Book debt load, FY2025
Current Ratio
0.52
FY2025, vs 0.52 ratio
Gross Margin
69.2%
FY2025
MetricValue

Equity Value

$297.4M

Equity Value (2)

$3.73B

Equity Value (3)

$9.30B

Equity Value (4)

$7.62B

Equity Value (5)

$19.88B

P/E

$3.1336B

Equity Value (6)

$21.34B

Equity Value (7)

$1.93B

Exhibit 1: FIN data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.
MetricValue

Free cash flow

$2.5403B

Cash flow

$1.54B

P/E

$898.2M

Equity Value

$3.73B

Equity Value (2)

$1.93B

Equity Value (3)

$297.4M

Exhibit 2: FIN data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.
production-report readthrough

Most important takeaway: Roper’s 2025 earnings engine remained high quality even though per-share profit did not accelerate. Revenue growth was +12.3%, gross margin held at 69.2%, and operating margin stayed at 28.3%, yet net income growth was -0.8% and EPS growth was -1.0%. The non-obvious read is that the business is still producing premium margins, but the market is likely discounting the lack of incremental earnings debt load rather than the absolute profitability profile.

valuation

probability-weighted fair value
ParameterValue

Revenue (base)

$7.9B (USD)

FCF Margin

27.2%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth

4.0%

Growth Path

12.3% → 10.4% → 9.2% → 8.2% → 7.4%

Template

mature_cash_generator

Exhibit 1: VAL data | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL; computed deterministically
bull case

$474.00

In the bull case, Roper continues to post resilient mid-to-high single-digit organic growth in its software and network businesses, expands margins through mix and operating scale effect, and deploys capital into highly accretive niche software acquisitions...

base case

$395.00

In the base case, Roper delivers steady execution: organic growth in the mid-single digits, stable to slightly higher margins, and strong free cash flow generation supported by its recurring-revenue-heavy portfolio...

bear case

$388

In the bear case, organic growth slows to low single digits as healthcare, public sector, or industrial end markets soften, while the acquisition pipeline becomes less attractive due to valuation or financing conditions...

ParameterValue

Long-Run Mean

28.4%

Current vs Mean

no material mean-reversion detected

Reversion Speed (θ)

0.000

Volatility (σ)

0.20pp

Exhibit 5: VAL data | Source: SEC EDGAR; OU process estimation

what breaks the thesis

falsifiable kill criteria

This risk pane focuses on the clearest ways Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP) can fail to deliver the quality, durability, and valuation support embedded in the current setup. The company still screens as highly profitable, with 2025 revenue of $8.19B, operating income of $2.24B, net margin of 19.4%, and operating margin of 28.3%, but the thesis is not invalidated by strength alone. It's invalidated if recurring-demand durability, capital allocation, or balance-sheet flexibility deteriorate faster than the market expects. The most important breakpoints are therefore not generic macro downturns; they are specific evidence that Roper’s software- and workflow-centric portfolio is less sticky, less cash-generative, or more acquisition-dependent than assumed. Pay close attention to organic growth, debt expansion from $7.62B in 2024 to $9.30B in 2025, and whether the company can sustain its 13.6x interest coverage while preserving premium valuation support.

risk framing

Why-Tree Gate Warnings: ANCHORED+PLAUSIBLE = 0% (threshold: >=50%). This means none of the identified leaves cleared the gate, so the current thesis-risk tree is not yet robustly supported by anchored evidence. In practice, that increases the odds that the strongest-sounding risks are still speculative rather than decision-grade...

PillarInvalidating FactsP(Invalidation)

recurring-demand-durability

Reported organic revenue growth falls below 4% for at least 2 consecutive quarters and management guidance/implied backlog doesn't support a return to mid-single-digit growth within the next 12 months.; ARR/subscription renewal rates or net revenue retention in major software businesses show broad deterioration to levels inconsistent with durable recurring demand (e.g., material declines across multiple segments rather than a one-off portfolio issue).; A meaningful portion of revenue previously believed to be recurring is shown to be transactional, project-based, or demand-sensitive, causing recurring revenue mix to decline materially.

29%

True

margin-fcf-conversion

Free-cash-flow margin drops below 25% on a sustained basis or FCF conversion from net income/EBITDA deteriorates materially for at least 2 reporting periods without a credible temporary explanation.; Incremental margins turn structurally negative or clearly compress across multiple businesses, indicating loss of software-like unit economics as growth moderates.; Cash conversion is revealed to have been supported by temporary working-capital benefits, tax timing, or acquisition accounting, with normalized cash generation materially lower than reported.

25%

True

moat-sustainability

Customer churn rises materially or renewal pricing power weakens across several core vertical software franchises, indicating lower switching costs than assumed.; A competitor, new entrant, or in-house customer solution wins meaningful share in one or more key niches, compressing margins or forcing elevated product investment to defend accounts.; Returns on invested capital and segment margins trend down over multiple periods in a way not explained by mix or temporary integration effects, suggesting competitive equilibrium is eroding.

31%

True

capital-allocation-acquisition-quality

One or more sizable acquisitions are followed by clear value destruction: organic slowdown in the acquired asset, margin dilution, integration issues, or impairment charges that imply acquisition multiples/underwriting were poor.; Management deploys capital into acquisitions at elevated valuations without a visible path to returns above cost of capital, while debt load rises and portfolio quality deteriorates.; Capital allocation shifts toward financial engineering or empire building over disciplined portfolio shaping, evidenced by worsening returns on incremental invested capital over several deals.

34%

True

balance-sheet-and-cash-flow-quality

Net debt load rises to a level inconsistent with Roper's historically conservative profile and remains elevated due to weaker earnings/cash generation rather than a short-lived acquisition bridge.; Debt maturities, interest expense, or covenant headroom become meaningfully less favorable, limiting strategic flexibility under a moderate downside scenario.; Underlying cash-flow quality deteriorates materially, with increased reliance on add-backs, restructuring exclusions, working-capital release, or deferred expenses to support reported cash generation.

18%

True

valuation-underwriteability

After updating the model for observed growth, margins, and capital allocation outcomes, expected annualized shareholder return falls below a reasonable hurdle rate even under base-case assumptions.; The investment case becomes overwhelmingly dependent on terminal value or multiple expansion, with near-term cash flow support insufficient to justify the current price.; A modest miss versus operating assumptions (growth, margin, or M&A returns) eliminates most of the estimated intrinsic value upside, showing the valuation is not strong to normal forecasting error.

46%

True
Exhibit 1: RISK data | Source: Methodology Why-Tree Decomposition
CURRENT RATIO
0.5x
2025 current assets $1.93B vs current liabilities $3.73B
INTEREST COV
13.6x
Computed from operating income and $121M interest expense
NET MARGIN
19.4%
2025 net income $1.54B on revenue implied by 12.3% YoY growth
most dangerous zone

Watch for drawdowns driven by fundamentals where funds de-risk faster than the business narrative updates.

fundamentals & operations

unit economics
Revenue
$7.90B
2025 audited; +12.3% YoY
Gross Margin
69.2%
2025 audited; strong for scale
Operating Margin
28.3%
2025 audited; > gross-to-op conversion
ROIC
6.4%
Computed ratio; moderate return on capital

Takeaway. The non-obvious signal is that Roper’s earnings engine is still highly productive even as the balance sheet has become more constrained: 2025 gross margin stayed at 69.2% and operating margin at 28.3%, but liquidity remained tight with a 0.52 current ratio and only $297.4M in cash against $3.73B of current liabilities...

SegmentRevenue% of TotalGrowthOp Margin

Total

$7.90B

100.0%

+12.3%

28.3%

Exhibit 1: OPS data | Source: Company SEC EDGAR 2025 annual data; segment detail n/a
MetricValue

Revenue

$7.90B

Revenue (2)

12.3%

P/E

$2.24B

Equity Value

$21.34B

Equity Value (2)

$19.31B

Gross margin

69.2%

Gross margin (2)

28.3%

Exhibit 2: OPS data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Top Revenue Drivers: Evidence-Based View

OPS

Because the source data doesn't disclose named segment revenue, the best-supported revenue drivers are company-wide operating levers rather than product-level line items. First, the reported 2025 revenue base of $7.90B expanded 12.3% YoY, which is strong growth for a mature large-cap software-oriented portfolio and indicates that the acquired-business mix is still compounding. Second, operating income reached $2.24B on that base, showing that growth is translating into meaningful absolute profit dollars rather than just scale for its own sake...

Customer / GroupRevenue ContributionRisk

Top customer / top 10 customers

n/a; concentration risk can't be quantified…

Recurring / installed base

Likely supportive, but recurring mix n/a

Transactional / project mix

Potentially more cyclical; mix n/a

Government / regulated buyers

Potentially sticky, but not evidenced here…

All customers (aggregate)

7902500000.0%

No concentration disclosure in available data
Exhibit 3: OPS data | Source: Company SEC EDGAR; customer concentration n/a in available data

Important limitation. The available data doesn't disclose any named customers, top-10 concentration, or renewal terms, so customer captivity can't be measured directly from reported facts. Given the company’s high margin profile and software orientation, some captivity is plausible, but it remains an inference rather than a verified concentration statistic.

See product & technology

See supply chain

See financial analysis

competitive position

moat vs. customer-as-competitor

Moat Score (1-10): 7 (High margins and strong earnings predictability, but moat mechanism is not fully proven) · Contestability: Semi-Contestable (High-quality franchise, but acquisition-led expansion and missing share data prevent a non-contestable label) · Customer Captivity: Moderate (Strong recurring-economics signals, but no direct churn/retention data or contract lock-in disclosure).

Moat Score (1-10)
7
High margins and strong earnings predictability, but moat mechanism is not fully proven
Contestability
Semi-Contestable
High-quality franchise, but acquisition-led expansion and missing share data prevent a non-contestable label
Customer Captivity
Moderate
Strong recurring-economics signals, but no direct churn/retention data or contract lock-in disclosure
Price War Risk
Low
69.2% gross margin and 28.3% operating margin suggest limited current price pressure

Most important non-obvious takeaway: the company’s competitive strength is real, but the market is not pricing it as fully durable. The clearest evidence is the gap between the deterministic base DCF fair value of $395.00 and the current stock price of $367.34, while the reverse DCF implies -4.8% growth at a 10.5% WACC. That combination says investors are skeptical that Roper can preserve today’s economics without continued acquisition support.

Market Contestability Assessment

GREENWALD CLASSIFICATION

On the available evidence, this market is best classified as semi-contestable rather than fully non-contestable. The company’s 69.2% gross margin, 28.3% operating margin, and 100 earnings predictability all indicate meaningful franchise protection, but the Source data doesn't show the core Greenwald proof points needed to call it non-contestable: direct evidence of customer captivity, market share by product, or a barrier that clearly prevents a capable entrant from matching both cost structure and demand capture. Could a new entrant replicate the incumbent’s cost structure?...

MechanismRelevanceStrengthEvidenceDurability

Habit Formation

Relevant only if purchase frequency is high; the available data doesn't disclose purchase cadence.

Weak

No direct evidence of consumable or daily-use habit loops; software-like economics are inferred, not documented.

Moderate if recurring workflows exist; otherwise weak.

Switching Costs

Likely relevant if customers are embedded in integrations, data, or workflow dependencies.

Moderate

Current ratio is 0.52, but the more relevant signal is the 69.2% gross margin and 28.3% operating margin, which are consistent with customers tolerating premium economics; no explicit contract evidence is provided.

Moderate to high, but unproven without renewal/churn disclosure.

Brand as Reputation

Relevant for experience goods and trusted enterprise products.

Moderate

Safety rank 1, financial strength A, and earnings predictability 100 suggest a trust premium; however, no customer satisfaction or brand survey is disclosed.

High if reputation is reinforced by long operating history.

Network Effects

Not clearly indicated by the available data; no two-sided marketplace evidence.

Weak

No platform/user-count dynamics are disclosed in the Source data.

Weak unless a hidden platform model exists n/a.

Search Costs

Relevant for complex, multi-functional, or customized software products.

Moderate

The institutional survey places the company in Computer Software and the portfolio shows high predictability, implying evaluation and replacement may be non-trivial.

Moderate to high if product complexity remains high.

Overall Captivity Strength

Weighted assessment across all mechanisms.

Moderate

Three mechanisms score at least moderate, but no direct retention, renewal, or embedded-contract evidence is provided.

Durable enough to support above-average margins, but not enough to call the business captive without further disclosure.

Exhibit 1: COMPETE data | Source: Company FY2025 audited financials; derived ratios; institutional analyst survey.
MetricValue

R&D was

$852.5M

SG&A was

$3.24B

P/E

69.2%

Gross margin

28.3%

Market share

10%

Exhibit 2: COMPETE data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Economies of Scale Assessment

GREENWALD SCALE ANALYSIS

The cost structure shows meaningful fixed-cost intensity: R&D was $852.5M in 2025, SG&A was $3.24B, and those two lines together imply a large overhead base that must be spread over volume. That's exactly the kind of structure where scale matters, especially when gross margin is already 69.2% and operating margin remains 28.3% even after continued investment. The company is therefore benefiting from scale, but scale alone is not a moat unless it also suppresses entrant demand...

DimensionAssessmentScore (1-10)EvidenceDurability (years)

Position-Based CA

Present but not fully proven

7

69.2% gross margin, 28.3% operating margin, and 100 earnings predictability are consistent with captive demand plus scale, but direct switching-cost/retention proof is absent.

5-10

Capability-Based CA

Meaningful

6

R&D grew from $646.1M (2023) to $748.1M (2024) to $852.5M (2025), indicating ongoing investment and likely operating know-how; however, knowledge portability is unknown.

3-5

Resource-Based CA

Moderate

5

Large balance sheet, acquisition capacity, and scale are real resources, but no patents or exclusive licenses are disclosed.

2-5

Overall CA Type

Semi-position-based with capability support…

7

The strongest visible advantage is superior economics at scale, but the moat is not yet proven to be fully non-contestable.

5-10

Exhibit 3: COMPETE data | Source: Company FY2025 audited financials; derived ratios; institutional analyst survey.

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See market size

market size & tam

runway vs. penetration

TAM: $7.06B (2025 audited revenue proxy; derived from gross profit $5.47B + cost of revenue $2.43B) · Market Growth Rate: +12.3% (2025 revenue growth YoY per derived ratios).

TAM
$7.06B
2025 audited revenue proxy; derived from gross profit $5.47B + cost of revenue $2.43B
Market Growth Rate
+12.3%
2025 revenue growth YoY per derived ratios

Single most important takeaway: the market opportunity looks broader than a static installed-base story, because ROP’s 2025 audited revenue implies a $7.06B economic footprint while still growing +12.3% YoY. The non-obvious point is that this growth is being generated alongside a 69.2% gross margin and 28.3% operating margin, which suggests the company is monetizing its market position rather than merely expanding low-quality volume.

SegmentCurrent Size2028 ProjectedCAGRCompany Share

Company-wide observable revenue base

$7.06B

+12.3%

100.0%

Per-share market footprint

Revenue/share $74.13

Revenue/share est. $80.95

+6.2% 3Y CAGR (survey)

Exhibit 1: TAM data | Source: SEC EDGAR audited 2025 annual financials; Derived ratios; Independent institutional analyst survey
MetricValue

Revenue

$7.06B

Revenue (2)

$5.47B

Revenue (3)

$2.43B

Revenue/Share of

$80.95

Revenue (4)

$73.85

Equity Value

$21.34B

Equity Value (2)

$9.30B

Exhibit 2: TAM data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Bottom-Up TAM Framework

BOTTOM-UP

Using the audited 2025 income statement as the only fully verifiable demand base, the cleanest bottom-up proxy for ROP’s current addressable footprint is $7.06B in revenue, derived from $5.47B gross profit plus $2.43B cost of revenue. That'sn't a formal enterprise TAM, but it's the best observable lower bound on the market ROP is currently penetrating. For forward context, the institutional survey projects Revenue/Share of $80.95 in 2026 versus $73.85 in 2025E, which implies continued expansion per share...

Penetration Rate and Runway

PENETRATION

Roper’s current penetration rate can't be calculated in a strict sense because the source data doesn't provide an external market denominator, segment revenue mix, or end-market unit counts. What can be measured is the company’s internal share of the observable revenue base: the enterprise generated about $7.06B of revenue in 2025 and maintained 69.2% gross margin, 28.3% operating margin, and 19.4% net margin, which is consistent with strong monetization inside niche markets...

Biggest caution: the company’s reported growth story is supported by a very large acquisition footprint, more than organic demand capture. Goodwill increased from $19.31B at 2024-12-31 to $21.34B at 2025-12-31, while long-term debt rose from $7.62B to $9.30B. That combination raises the risk that headline TAM may be overstated if acquired revenue streams don't compound at the pace assumed.

See competitive position

See operations

See Earnings Scorecard

product & technology

roadmap + software stack
R&D Spend (2025)
$852.5M
vs $748.1M in 2024; +14.0% YoY
R&D % of Revenue
10.8%
Computed ratio; indicates meaningful reinvestment intensity
Gross Margin
69.2%
Supports continued product development while preserving economics
Operating Cash Flow
$2.54B
Funds R&D and platform investment internally

Non-obvious takeaway. Roper is not merely defending its product base; it's steadily increasing technology investment while keeping the model highly cash generative. The clearest signal is that R&D rose from $646.1M in 2023 to $852.5M in 2025 even as gross margin held at 69.2% and operating cash flow reached $2.54B, implying product reinvestment is being funded from internal cash rather than balance-sheet strain.

Product / ServiceGrowth RateLifecycle StageCompetitive Position

Core software / technology-enabled vertical market platforms…

+12.3%

Mature

Leader

Recurring maintenance / support contracts…

Mature

Leader

Application / workflow software enhancements…

Growth

Challenger

Acquired platform capabilities / add-on products…

Growth

Niche

Legacy installed-base offerings

Mature

Leader

Emerging feature set / next-gen modules

Launch

Challenger

Exhibit 1: PRODTECH data | Source: SEC EDGAR Financial Data; Derived ratios; Independent Institutional Analyst Data

Takeaway. The available data doesn't disclose product-level revenue, so the portfolio must be read as a technology platform story rather than a segment mix. Still, the combination of 10.8% R&D intensity, 69.2% gross margin, and 12.3% revenue growth argues that the company can keep refreshing its installed base without sacrificing economics.

Technology Stack and Platform Differentiation

PLATFORM

Roper’s technology stack appears to be a mix of proprietary application workflows, acquired software capabilities, and supporting commercial infrastructure rather than a single monolithic architecture. The strongest evidence is economic: R&D expense reached $852.5M in 2025, yet the business still produced 69.2% gross margin and 28.3% operating margin, which is consistent with a platform that can absorb continual feature development while preserving pricing power. What looks proprietary from the outside is less the underlying infrastructure and more the embedded domain workflow, data model, and installed-base integration depth...

R&D Pipeline and Launch Outlook

PIPELINE

The available data doesn't provide named product launches or a dated roadmap, so the R&D pipeline has to be inferred from spending trends and capital allocation. The clearest signal is that R&D increased from $646.1M in 2023 to $748.1M in 2024 and then to $852.5M in 2025, indicating a persistent cadence of product refresh, feature enhancement, and platform maintenance rather than a one-off development burst. From an investment perspective, the key question is not whether Roper is spending enough to keep products current; it clearly is...

Intellectual Property and Moat Assessment

MOAT

The moat appears to be more commercial and structural than patent-driven. The available data does not disclose a patent count, trade-secret inventory, or formal years of protection, so any precise IP tally is n/a. Even so, the financial profile suggests a defensible asset base: gross margin of 69.2%, earnings predictability of 100, and safety rank of 1 point to a business with recurring, resilient demand characteristics rather than a commoditized software vendor...

See competitive position

See operations

See Variant Perception & Thesis

supply chain

single points of failure

Lead Time Trend: Stable (Quarterly cost of revenue stayed orderly: $589.1M → $598.2M → $614.5M in 2025 Q1-Q3) · Geographic Risk Score: 6/10 (Assessment reflects missing country data and acquisition-heavy operating model) · Gross Margin: 69.2% (Computed ratio; indicates limited direct input-cost drag).

Lead Time Trend
Stable
Quarterly cost of revenue stayed orderly: $589.1M → $598.2M → $614.5M in 2025 Q1-Q3
Geographic Risk Score
6/10
Assessment reflects missing country data and acquisition-heavy operating model
Gross Margin
69.2%
Computed ratio; indicates limited direct input-cost drag

The most important non-obvious takeaway is that Roper’s supply chain appears financially resilient even though operating liquidity is tight: gross margin held at 69.2% while current ratio was only 0.52. In other words, the company doesn't need a large cash cushion to absorb routine procurement or vendor noise because the operating engine is still generating substantial cash conversion, with operating cash flow of $2.5403B.

Component/ServiceSubstitution Difficulty (Low/Med/High)Risk Level (Low/Med/High/Critical)Signal (Bullish/Neutral/Bearish)

Core software/platform inputs n/a

Med

Med

NEUTRAL

Cloud infrastructure / hosting n/a

HIGHHIGHBEARISH

Third-party data / content feeds n/a

HIGHHIGHBEARISH

Contract manufacturing / hardware assembly n/a

Med

Med

NEUTRAL

Payment / billing infrastructure n/a

LOWLOWBULLISH

Cybersecurity / identity tooling n/a

Med

Med

NEUTRAL
Exhibit 1: SUPPLY data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Concentration Risk Is More Balance-Sheet Than Vendor-Led

SPOF ANALYSIS

There's no supplier concentration disclosure in the Source data, so the direct vendor map is n/a. That said, the operating profile argues the bigger concentration risk is not a classic single supplier of raw materials; it's a portfolio-level dependence on a consistent, repeatable operating platform that can sustain 69.2% gross margin and 28.3% operating margin. The balance sheet suggests the real single point of failure is execution across an acquisition-heavy structure: goodwill reached $21.34B and long-term debt rose to $9.30B in 2025...

Geographic Exposure Is Not Disclosed, So Tariff Risk Is Indirect

REGIONAL RISK

The Source data doesn't disclose country-by-country sourcing, manufacturing, or logistics locations, so specific regional dependency percentages aren't disclosed. Because of that, the most defensible geographic-risk view is that Roper’s exposure is likely indirect and embedded in software, services, and acquisition footprints rather than in heavy physical manufacturing...

Component% of COGSTrendKey Risk

Cost of revenue

100.0%

STABLE

No disclosed BOM; quarterly cost moved modestly from $589.1M to $614.5M…

R&D

RISING

R&D expense increased from $748.1M in 2024 to $852.5M in 2025…

SG&A

RISING

SG&A reached $3.24B in 2025, limiting operating scale effect…

Cloud / hosting / software services

STABLE

Potential vendor or platform concentration n/a

Data/content / third-party inputs

STABLE

Substitution difficulty likely high if proprietary data are embedded in products…

Logistics / freight / fulfillment

STABLE

No direct disclosure; likely lower intensity than industrial peers…

Exhibit 2: SUPPLY data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

The biggest caution is liquidity tolerance, not day-to-day supply execution: current ratio was only 0.52, with current assets of $1.93B against current liabilities of $3.73B. That means any prolonged vendor outage, systems integration failure, or customer collection delay would have to be managed primarily through operating cash flow rather than balance-sheet slack.

See operations

See risk assessment

See Variant Perception & Thesis

catalyst map

forward calendar

Roper Technologies enters the catalyst window with a mix of visible operating momentum and valuation sensitivity. The company’s latest audited 2025 figures show revenue growth of +12.3%, gross margin of 69.2%, operating margin of 28.3%, and EPS of $14.20, while the market values the equity at $36.38B as of Mar 24, 2026. Against that backdrop, the main near- to medium-term catalyst set is not a single binary event, but a series of operating and capital-allocation checkpoints that can re-rate expectations if management continues to convert revenue growth into cash flow and earnings. The stock’s current PE ratio of 24.9 and EV/EBITDA of 14.5 leave room for both upside and disappointment depending on whether growth remains durable and whether debt load trends remain contained. Cross-check the risk tab for balance-sheet and execution sensitivities, and the valuation tab for how the market price compares with DCF and reverse-DCF assumptions.

Near-term operating catalysts

The most immediate catalyst is continued execution against the company’s 2025 operating base, where revenue growth reached +12.3% and operating margin held at 28.3% despite SG&A still representing 41.0% of revenue. The audited income statement shows operating income rising to $2.24B in 2025, up from $525.8M in the first quarter, while quarterly net income reached $398.5M in the third quarter and $1.54B for the full year. That combination suggests the core question for investors is not simply growth, but the durability of margin conversion as the company scales its software-led portfolio...

Capital allocation and balance-sheet catalysts

Capital allocation is a meaningful catalyst because Roper’s 2025 balance sheet shows both substantial earning power and a heavier debt load than two years earlier. Long-term debt increased to $9.30B in 2025 from $7.62B in 2024 and $6.33B in 2023, while shareholders’ equity stood at $19.88B and total liabilities at $14.70B. On a book basis, debt-to-equity is 0.74, while the computed debt-to-equity ratio in the model is 0.47...

Per-share compounding and estimate revisions

For a company like Roper, estimate revisions can be as important a catalyst as headline growth because the stock’s long-term value case depends on compounding at the per-share level. The institutional survey already embeds that logic: Revenue/Share rises from $57.79 in 2023 to $65.61 in 2024 and an estimated $73.85 in 2025, with another step to $80.95 in 2026. EPS follows a similar path, from $16.71 in 2023 to $18.32 in 2024, then to an estimated $20.00 in 2025 and $21.75 in 2026...

The catalyst picture is strongest when viewed through operating consistency rather than one-off events. Roper’s current setup combines +12.3% revenue growth, 28.3% operating margin, and $2.54B of operating cash flow, which gives management several levers to support upside across earnings, capital allocation, and valuation...

See risk assessment

See valuation

See related analysis in

street expectations

consensus vs. framework

Consensus appears to treat Roper as a premium-quality compounder, but not as a screaming bargain: the live share price is $367.34 versus a DCF base value of $750.24 and an institutional 3-5 year target range of $690.00 to $845.00. Our view is more constructive than the current tape suggests, because the market-implied reverse DCF assumes -4.8% growth and 0.0% terminal growth, which looks too pessimistic relative to 2025 audited revenue growth of +12.3% and gross margin of 69.2%.

Current Price
$367.34
Mar 24, 2026
Market Cap
~$38.42B
DCF Fair Value
$395.00
+7.5% versus the verified $367.34 close
vs Current
+112.2%
DCF implied

Most important takeaway. The non-obvious signal is more than that ROP screens cheap versus intrinsic value; it's that the market is effectively pricing in a structural slowdown. The reverse DCF implies -4.8% growth and 0.0% terminal growth, which is starkly below the audited 2025 revenue growth of +12.3% and helps explain why the stock remains far below both the DCF base value and the institutional target range.

MetricValue

Fair Value

$367.34

DCF

-4.8%

Fair value (2)

+12.3%

Revenue

69.2%

Gross margin

28.3%

Operating margin

$2.5403B

Cash flow

$750.24

DCF (2)

$388.26

Exhibit 1: STREET data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Street Says vs We Say

CONSENSUS GAP

STREET SAYS: Roper deserves a premium multiple, but not necessarily a full re-rating yet; the market appears to be discounting a softer long-run EPS path and is comfortable valuing the company near the current $367.34 share price. In the evidence set, the market-implied reverse DCF points to -4.8% growth, which is effectively a no-growth stance. WE SAY: The audited 2025 profile supports a meaningfully higher fair value because revenue still grew +12.3%, gross margin was 69.2%, operating margin was 28.3%, and operating cash flow was $2.5403B...

MetricStreet ConsensusOur EstimateDiff %Key Driver of Difference

Revenue (FY2026)

$8.87B

N/A

N/A

EPS (FY2026)

$21.75

$26.00

+19.5%

Institutional survey forward estimate implies higher long-term earnings power than the visible annual audited EPS path.

Operating Margin (FY2026)

29.0%

N/A

N/A

Gross Margin (FY2026)

69.0%

N/A

N/A

Fair Value / Target

$717.50

$750.24

+4.6%

Our DCF base value exceeds the visible street midpoint and reflects the market’s overly bearish growth assumption.

Revenue Growth (FY2026)

+8.5%

N/A

N/A

Exhibit 2: STREET data | Source: Authoritative Source data; Quantitative Model Outputs; Independent Institutional Analyst Data
YearRevenue EstEPS EstGrowth %

2025A

$7.90B

$14.20

+12.3% revenue / -1.0% EPS

2026E

$7.9B

$14.20

+12.3% revenue base to +12.3% (forward bridge)

2027E

$7.9B

$14.20

+8.2% revenue / +8.7% EPS

2028E

$7.9B

$14.20

+8.9% revenue / +6.1% EPS

3-5Y Survey View

$14.20

Institutional EPS target over 3-5 years

Exhibit 3: STREET data | Source: Authoritative Source data; Independent Institutional Analyst Data

Revision Trend Check

ESTIMATE DIRECTION

The evidence set doesn't provide a full sell-side revision history, so the cleanest observable trend comes from the company’s own 2025 audited results versus the longer-duration institutional view. Near term, the revision signal is effectively flat-to-down on earnings because audited diluted EPS finished at $14.20 with -1.0% YoY growth, even as revenue grew +12.3%. That mismatch tells us what Street revisions are probably debating: whether the next leg of the model shows operating scale effect from a 69.2% gross margin base and 2.5403B of operating cash flow, or whether SG&A at 41.0% of revenue keeps EPS revisions muted...

See valuation

See variant perception & thesis

See Earnings Scorecard

earnings scorecard

execution quality
TTM EPS
$14.20
Latest audited FY2025 diluted EPS
Latest Quarter EPS
$3.68
2025-09-30 quarter, audited
Earnings Predictability
1.5B
Independent institutional survey
PeriodEPSYoY ChangeSequential

2023-03

$14.20

2023-06

$14.20

+28.3%

2023-09

$14.20

-5.0%

2023-12

$14.20

+11.8%

2024-03

$14.20

+33.6%

-1.9%

2024-06

$14.20

-8.2%

-11.9%

Exhibit 1: SCORECARD data | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings

Single most important takeaway. The most non-obvious signal is that Roper’s top line and operating engine stayed strong in 2025 even though per-share earnings did not accelerate: revenue growth was +12.3% while EPS growth was -1.0%. That divergence suggests the next earnings leg is likely to depend more on expense absorption, acquisition mix, and financing effects than on pure demand momentum.

What the history does show. The available audited quarters show a steady sequential climb in diluted EPS from $3.06 to $3.49 to $3.68, which is consistent with durable execution. However, the available data doesn't provide analyst estimates, revenue by quarter, or same-day stock reactions for the prior eight quarters, so beat rate and average surprise can't be verified.

Earnings Quality Assessment

HIGH QUALITY / LOW TRANSPARENCY

Roper’s earnings profile looks fundamentally strong on the measures that matter most for quality: 2025 gross margin was 69.2%, operating margin was 28.3%, and net margin was 19.4%. Cash generation also supports the story, with $2.54B of operating cash flow against $1.54B of net income, implying healthy cash conversion at the annual level. Those are the hallmarks of a business that can absorb reinvestment without collapsing profitability...

MetricValue

EPS

$14.20

EPS (2)

$20.00

EPS (3)

$21.75

EPS (4)

$3.06

EPS (5)

$3.49

EPS (6)

$3.68

Exhibit 2: SCORECARD data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Estimate Revision Trends

NOT VERIFIABLE / ESTIMATE GAP

The available data doesn't include a 90-day analyst revision history, so the direction and magnitude of near-term estimate revisions can't be measured directly here. What we can say is that the market-facing reference points are already pulling in different directions: audited 2025 diluted EPS is $14.20, while the institutional survey’s 2025 EPS estimate is $20.00 and its 2026 estimate is $21.75. That gap implies either the survey is looking through temporary margin pressure or it's embedding a more aggressive operating trajectory than the audited base supports...

See financial analysis

See street expectations

See Variant Perception & Thesis

alternative data

signals

Overall Signal Score: 7.6 / 10 (Strong top-line, cash generation, and valuation dislocation; dampened by debt load and weak EPS growth) · Long Signals: 9 (+12.3% revenue growth, 69.2% gross margin, 62.2% upside probability) · Short Signals: 4 (0.52 current ratio, $9.30B long-term debt, $21.34B goodwill).

Bullish Signals
9
+12.3% revenue growth, 69.2% gross margin, 62.2% upside probability
Bearish Signals
4
0.52 current ratio, $9.30B long-term debt, $21.34B goodwill
Data Freshness
Live / FY2025 audited
Price updated Mar 24, 2026; audited financials through 2025-12-31

Most important non-obvious takeaway: the cleanest signal is not simply that Roper looks cheap; it's that the market is pricing in a far harsher operating regime than the audited numbers justify. The reverse DCF implies -4.8% growth and a 10.5% WACC, while the company just posted +12.3% revenue growth and 28.3% operating margin, so the burden of proof is now on the bear case to show why execution should deteriorate that sharply.

CategorySignalReadingTrendImplication

Growth

Revenue growth YoY

+12.3%

IMPROVING

Demand remains healthy and supports a premium multiple…

Earnings conversion

EPS growth YoY

-1.0%

Mixed

Top-line strength hasn't fully converted into per-share earnings…

Profitability

Gross margin

69.2%

Stable / strong

High-quality margin structure is intact

Capital efficiency

ROIC

6.4%

STABLE

Adequate but not elite; re-rating needs better capital productivity…

Balance sheet

Current ratio

0.52

Tight

Liquidity is dependent on ongoing cash generation, not excess current assets…

debt load

Long-term debt

$9.30B

RISING

Debt has increased materially and raises funding flexibility risk…

Exhibit 1: SIGNALS data | Source: SEC EDGAR FY2025 audited financials; finviz live price; deterministic derived ratios; independent institutional survey

Alternative Data: Sparse, but the available proxies are supportive

ALT DATA

Within the supplied source data, there are no direct job-posting, web-traffic, app-download, patent, or social-media series, so we can't manufacture a directional read from those channels. That absence itself is important: the current pane is being driven by audited financials and market pricing rather than high-frequency alternative datasets. What we can cross-check is the operating footprint implied by the 2025 filings: revenue growth of +12.3%, gross margin of 69.2%, and EBITDA of $3.13B are consistent with a business still expanding without obvious evidence of demand collapse...

Sentiment: Price action and institutional framing point in different directions

SENTIMENT

Retail/institutional sentiment is best approximated here by the live market price, reverse DCF, and the independent survey. The stock trades at $367.34 versus a model fair value of $395.00, while the survey’s 3-5 year target range of $690.00-$845.00 sits far above the tape. That combination suggests sentiment is cautious to skeptical even though the long-run earnings framework remains constructive...

Biggest caution: liquidity and debt load. Current ratio is only 0.52, current liabilities are $3.73B versus cash of just $297.4M, and long-term debt rose to $9.30B. That means the company is structurally reliant on continued operating cash flow, so any slowdown in cash conversion or acquisition integration could hit flexibility faster than the income statement alone would suggest.

CriterionResultStatus

Positive Net Income

Pass

Positive Operating Cash Flow

Fail

ROA Improving

Pass

Cash Flow > Net Income (Accruals)

Fail

Declining Long-Term Debt

Fail

Improving Current Ratio

Fail
Exhibit 2: SIGNALS data | Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL; computed deterministically

See risk assessment

See valuation

See Variant Perception & Thesis

management & leadership

execution + key-person risk

Management Score: 3.8/5 (Weighted average from 6-dimension scorecard; strong execution, weaker capital-allocation transparency).

Management Score
3.8/5
Weighted average from 6-dimension scorecard; strong execution, weaker capital-allocation transparency

The most important non-obvious takeaway is that Roper’s management quality is being tested less by operating performance than by capital intensity: total assets rose from $31.33B at 2024-12-31 to $34.58B at 2025-12-31 while goodwill climbed from $19.31B to $21.34B. That pattern says the franchise is still compounding, but future value creation will depend on disciplined integration and per-share returns, not simply on keeping margins high.

CEO and Key Executive Assessment

QUALITY COMPOUNDER, CAPITAL TEST AHEAD

Roper’s management profile looks like a classic high-quality compounder: the company produced 69.2% gross margin, 28.3% operating margin, and $2.5403B of operating cash flow in 2025, while revenue grew +12.3% year over year. That combination supports the view that leadership is preserving a durable economic moat through pricing discipline, portfolio quality, and cost control. The 2025 quarterly cadence also improved through the year, with operating income rising from $525.8M in Q1 to $573.0M in Q3, which argues execution is more than stable but improving...

TitleBackgroundKey Achievement

Chief Executive Officer

Not provided in Source data

Delivered 2025 revenue growth of +12.3% with operating margin at 28.3%

Chief Financial Officer

Not provided in Source data

Supported $2.5403B operating cash flow and 13.6 interest coverage in 2025…
Exhibit 1: MGMT data | Source: Company SEC EDGAR 2025 audited financials; Authoritative Source data

Governance and Shareholder Rights

GOVERNANCE DATA LIMITED

The Source data doesn't include board composition, committee independence, director elections, or proxy-voting structure, so governance quality can't be fully verified from EDGAR facts here. On the financial side, the firm’s capital structure remains manageable relative to earnings power: interest coverage is 13.6, debt-to-equity is 0.47, and total liabilities-to-equity is 0.74. That suggests governance hasn't obviously allowed balance-sheet drift to become destabilizing, but it doesn't prove strong shareholder protections...

MetricValue

Revenue growth

+12.3%

Revenue growth (2)

28.3%

Operating margin

$2.5403B

EPS growth

-1.0%

Exhibit 2: MGMT data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Compensation Alignment

NO PROXY DATA IN AVAILABLE DATA

Compensation alignment can't be confirmed because the Source data contains no DEF 14A, incentive-plan, or realized-pay disclosures. That said, the operating results provide a partial read-through: 2025 revenue growth was +12.3%, operating margin was 28.3%, and operating cash flow was $2.5403B, which is the kind of performance typically rewarded in a shareholder-friendly pay program. The problem is that EPS growth was still -1.0% YoY, so a pay plan that shows revenue or EBITDA alone would be insufficiently aligned...

See risk assessment

See operations

See Financial Analysis

macro sensitivity

rates, fx, energy

Rate Sensitivity: High (DCF fair value $395.00 vs current price $395.00; reverse DCF implies 10.5% WACC and 0.0% terminal growth.) · Commodity Exposure: Low / n/a (No key-input commodity or COGS breakdown disclosed in the Source data; business appears software-led.) · Trade Policy Risk: Low / n/a (No tariff exposure or China supply-chain dependency data disclosed in the Source data.).

Rate Sensitivity
High
DCF fair value $395.00 vs current price $395.00; reverse DCF implies 10.5% WACC and 0.0% terminal growth.
Equity Risk Premium
5.5%
WACC components show cost of equity 8.3% with beta 0.73 and risk-free rate 4.25%.
Cycle Phase
Neutral
VIX, credit spreads, yield curve, ISM, CPI, and Fed Funds aren't populated in the Macro Context table.

Single most important takeaway: ROP’s macro sensitivity is dominated by discount-rate risk, not operating distress. The stock trades at $367.34 versus a deterministic DCF fair value of $395.00, while the reverse DCF implies only -4.8% growth at a 10.5% WACC and 0.0% terminal growth...

Interest Rate Sensitivity: valuation is the main macro lever

RATES

Roper’s macro profile is unusually sensitive to interest rates because the stock’s valuation is driven by long-duration cash flows rather than near-term balance-sheet stress. The deterministic DCF outputs a $750.24 per-share fair value at 7.5% WACC, with bull and bear outcomes of $1,252.19 and $388.26, respectively. Against the current price of $353.48, the market is effectively discounting a much harsher capital-cost regime than the base model...

MetricValue

Revenue

$2.43B

Revenue (2)

$5.47B

Gross margin

69.2%

Operating margin

28.3%

Revenue (3)

41.0%

Exhibit 1: MACRO data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Commodity exposure: limited evidence of direct input risk

COGS

The provided data don't disclose key input commodities, supplier concentration, or a COGS bridge that would let us quantify raw-material sensitivity. What is clear is that 2025 cost of revenue was $2.43B against gross profit of $5.47B, producing a 69.2% gross margin; that profile is more consistent with a software- and IP-heavy business than a commodity-intensive manufacturer. Because no commodity basket or hedging policy is supplied in the Source data, the most defensible conclusion is that commodity risk is likely secondary to pricing, mix, and acquisition-related operating scale effect...

MetricValue

Equity Value

$5.47B

Gross margin

69.2%

Gross margin (2)

$852.5M

Revenue

41.0%

Exhibit 2: MACRO data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Trade policy: tariff risk appears limited, but disclosure is incomplete

TARIFFS

The Source data doesn't provide product-level tariff exposure, China sourcing dependence, or a regional supply-chain map, so trade policy can't be quantified with precision. That said, the business’s 2025 financial profile, $5.47B gross profit, 69.2% gross margin, and $852.5M of R&D expense, suggests an asset-light, software-oriented model that's typically less exposed to tariff shocks than industrial or hardware peers. The practical risk is indirect: if any acquired business relies on international subcontracting or hardware-adjacent distribution, tariff pressure could flow into margins rather than revenue...

See Variant Perception & Thesis

See Valuation

See Financial Analysis

quantitative profile

factor + mean reversion

Beta: 0.90 (Independent institutional survey; beta in model outputs is 0.73.).

Beta
0.73
Independent institutional survey; beta in model outputs is 0.73.

Most important takeaway: the market is pricing ROP as if its long-run growth is materially weaker than the latest audited operating trend. The reverse DCF implies -4.8% growth and 0.0% terminal growth, even though audited 2025 revenue growth was +12.3% and operating margin held at 28.3%.

Takeaway. The available data doesn't provide a true factor model scorecard, but the business fundamentals imply a quality-and-growth bias rather than a value or volatility profile. That interpretation is supported by 2025 gross margin of 69.2%, operating margin of 28.3%, and revenue growth of +12.3%.

Liquidity Profile

LIQUIDITY / TRADING

Roper’s liquidity picture is best described as institutional-grade at the share level but thin on balance-sheet cash. The Source data provides 106.6M shares outstanding and a live market cap of $36.38B, but it doesn't include average daily volume, bid-ask spread, institutional turnover, or a block-trade impact model. So, any precise market-impact estimate would be speculative and is not shown as a fabricated number...

Technical Profile

TECHNICAL / FACTUAL

Technical indicators aren't populated in the Source data, so the current section is limited to what can be stated without inventing market history. The live price is $353.48 as of Mar 24, 2026, but 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI, MACD, and support/resistance levels aren't provided. Likewise, there's no volume trend series in the authoritative inputs...

See Variant Perception & Thesis

See Valuation

See Fundamentals

options & derivatives

sentiment gauge

This pane shows the evidence that matters for your ROP decision, including the current signal, its limits, and the next checkpoint.

Most important takeaway. The single most non-obvious signal is the valuation gap versus the market’s implied growth stance: the reverse DCF implies -4.8% growth even though audited 2025 revenue growth is +12.3%. That disconnect matters for derivatives because it suggests options are likely pricing skepticism about near-term re-rating, not disbelief in the franchise’s long-run earnings power.

Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility

IV VIEW

Direct implied-volatility data was not supplied, so the correct read is directional rather than numerical: the stock’s option market is likely anchored to a quality-name risk premium rather than a crash premium. That view is supported by the company’s 28.3% operating margin, 19.4% net margin, and earnings predictability score of 100, all of which typically compress realized volatility relative to weaker software peers. At the same time, the current share price of $367.34 sits far below the deterministic DCF fair value of $395.00 and even below the Monte Carlo median of $467.74...

Options Flow and Positioning Signals

FLOW

No live tape of block trades, sweep activity, or strike-level open interest was included in the source data, so any claim about unusual options activity would be speculative. The only defensible positioning inference is derived from the equity gap itself: with the stock at $353.48 versus a DCF base fair value of $395.00, long-dated calls or call spreads are the structure most consistent with a market that wants upside exposure without paying full delta...

Short Interest and Squeeze Risk

SI

Short interest data was not supplied, so short interest (a portion of float), days to cover, and cost to borrow remain n/a. That matters because Roper’s balance sheet and cash profile can either suppress or amplify squeeze dynamics depending on whether shorts view the name as a quality compounder or a valuation compression trade. Using the available fundamentals, the base-case squeeze risk is Medium, not because the float is demonstrably crowded, but because the stock sits in a zone where downside hedges can remain sticky while any re-rating can force incremental covering...

Fund TypeDirectionNotable Names

Hedge Fund

Long / Options

Patient quality-compounder exposure; likely defined-risk call structures…

Mutual Fund

Long

Long-only quality holders; supported by Safety Rank 1 and Price Stability 100…

Pension

Long

Low-turnover capital seeking stable earnings predictability…

Hedge Fund (2)

Short / Puts

Valuation-compression trades against PE 24.9 and EV/EBITDA 14.5…

Mutual Fund (2)

Options

Call overwrite / collar behavior around a premium-quality franchise…

n/a Family Office

Long

Long-duration compounding thesis tied to 3-5 year EPS estimate of $26.00…

Exhibit 1: DERIVS data | Source: Independent Institutional Analyst Data; SEC EDGAR audited financials; Derived ratios

Biggest caution. The most important derivatives risk is not volatility collapse; it's valuation compression if the market keeps anchoring to reverse DCF assumptions. With an implied growth rate of -4.8%, a PE of 24.9, and a current ratio of just 0.52, downside hedges may stay firm whenever investors focus on debt load, liquidity, or acquisition execution instead of the company’s strong operating margins.

See Catalyst Map

See Valuation

See Fundamentals

governance & accounting

quality control
Governance Score
B
High-quality economics; governance details partially unavailable
Accounting Quality Flag
Clean
OCF $2.5403B vs net income $1.54B; interest coverage 13.6

Most important takeaway. The non-obvious signal is that Roper’s accounting quality looks stronger than its capital structure might suggest: operating cash flow was $2.5403B versus net income of $1.54B in 2025, while interest coverage remained 13.6. That combination implies earnings are being converted into cash at a healthy rate, even though debt load and goodwill are rising.

Shareholder Rights Assessment

n/a SOURCE DATA

Proxy-level governance provisions aren't disclosed Available data, so poison pill status, classified-board structure, dual-class share structure, voting standard, proxy access, and proposal history can't be confirmed here. Because the required DEF 14A facts are absent, this section must be treated as a data gap rather than an adverse conclusion. On the information available, the overall governance score is best described as Adequate rather than Strong or Weak...

MetricValue

ROA

$2.5403B

P/E

$1.54B

Gross margin

69.2%

Gross margin (2)

28.3%

Equity Value

$7.62B

Equity Value (2)

$9.30B

Equity Value (3)

$19.31B

Equity Value (4)

$21.34B

Exhibit 1: GOVERNANCE data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Accounting Quality Deep-Dive

CLEAN WITH WATCH ITEMS

The accounting picture is broadly constructive. In 2025, operating cash flow was $2.5403B versus net income of $1.54B, which indicates strong cash conversion rather than aggressive accrual-driven earnings. Gross margin held at 69.2% and operating margin at 28.3%, supporting the view that the business model is economically resilient and that reported profitability is not obviously inflated...

DimensionScore (1-5)Evidence Summary

Capital Allocation

3

Debt rose from $7.62B to $9.30B and goodwill rose to $21.34B, suggesting acquisition-led allocation with decent but not exceptional capital efficiency (ROIC 6.4%).

Strategy Execution

4

Revenue grew +12.3% YoY while gross margin held at 69.2% and operating margin at 28.3%, indicating disciplined execution.

Communication

No proxy letter, earnings-call transcript, or investor-day text provided in the Source data.

Culture

No direct employee/culture evidence provided; reinvestment profile (R&D $852.5M, SG&A 41.0% of revenue) suggests an operating culture focused on product and integration.

Track Record

4

Safety Rank 1, Financial Strength A, Earnings Predictability 100, and Price Stability 100 support a long record of consistency.

Alignment

No DEF 14A compensation or ownership details provided, so pay alignment can't be fully scored.

Exhibit 2: GOVERNANCE data | Source: SEC EDGAR Financial Data; Derived ratios; Independent Institutional Analyst Data

Biggest caution. The most important risk is the capital-structure and goodwill combination: long-term debt increased to $9.30B in 2025 while goodwill reached $21.34B, and current ratio remained only 0.52. That'sn't an immediate distress signal because interest coverage is still 13.6, but it means the thesis depends on steady cash generation and clean impairment testing.

See Variant Perception & Thesis

See Valuation

See Financial Analysis

value framework

greenwald / qarp

Roper Technologies screens as a high-quality compounder that's cheap relative to a conservative DCF but not obviously cheap on trailing multiples alone. The core debate is whether its acquisition-led earnings engine can keep converting 2025’s 69.2% gross margin and 28.3% operating margin into per-share compounding fast enough to justify the market’s skepticism at $367.34.

Graham Score
2/7
Passes 2 of 7 classic value tests
Buffett Quality Score
A-
Strong moat/management, weaker price score
Margin of Safety
52.9%
Versus DCF fair value of $395.00 vs price of $395.00
Quality-adjusted P/E
19.9x
24.9x P/E adjusted for 7.7% ROE and 6.4% ROIC

Most important non-obvious takeaway. The valuation gap is not mainly about whether Roper makes money; it's about whether the market believes the current earnings base is sustainable. The stock trades at $367.34 versus a deterministic DCF fair value of $395.00, yet the reverse DCF implies only -4.8% growth and a 10.5% WACC, which means the market is discounting a far harsher future than the audited 2025 results would suggest.

CriterionThresholdActual ValuePass/Fail

Adequate size

Mid-cap or larger

Market cap: $36.38B

Pass

Strong financial condition

Current ratio >= 2.0

Current ratio: 0.52

Fail

Earnings stability

Positive earnings in each of the last 10 years…

Audited 2025 net income: $1.54B; 2025 EPS diluted: $14.20…

Dividend record

Continuous dividend payments for 20+ years…

Dividend history not provided in available data

Earnings growth

Positive growth over the last 10 years

Revenue growth YoY: +12.3%; EPS growth YoY: -1.0%

Fail

Moderate P/E

P/E < 15

P/E ratio: 24.9

Fail

Exhibit 1: VALUEFR data | Source: Company 2025 SEC EDGAR financial data; live market data; derived ratios

Biggest caution. Roper’s balance sheet is still serviceable, but liquidity is tight for a Graham-style test: current ratio is only 0.52, cash and equivalents are $297.4M, and goodwill is $21.34B. That combination makes the thesis dependent on continued acquisition discipline and uninterrupted cash generation rather than on balance-sheet conservatism.

MetricValue

Gross margin

69.2%

Gross margin (2)

28.3%

Gross margin (3)

$2.54B

P/E

24.9x

DCF

$367.34

DCF (2)

$750.24

Scores (1

-5

Understandable business

4/5

Exhibit 2: VALUEFR data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Buffett Qualitative Checklist

QUALITY

Roper scores well on the parts of Buffett’s checklist that matter most for compounding: business understandability, durability, management quality, and pricing power. The company’s 2025 audited results show 69.2% gross margin, 28.3% operating margin, and $2.54B of operating cash flow, all of which support the idea that this is a high-quality capital allocator rather than a commodity operator. The weaker point is price: at 24.9x earnings and with the stock at $353.48 versus a DCF fair value of $395.00, the market is clearly not paying a distressed multiple, so the thesis depends on compounding rather than multiple mean reversion...

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company history

historical analogies

Roper’s history is best understood through the lens of disciplined capital allocation and per-share compounding rather than a single product breakthrough. The company’s trajectory resembles a quality software roll-up that repeatedly uses acquisitions, reinvestment, and operating discipline to lift revenue per share and earnings per share over time. The current cycle still looks like an accumulation phase: margins remain strong, goodwill and debt are rising with asset growth, and the market is discounting a level of stagnation that looks inconsistent with the company’s audited profitability and institutional estimate path.

FAIR VALUE
$395.00
+7.5% versus the verified $367.34 close
STOCK PRICE
$367.34
Mar 24, 2026
OPER MARGIN
28.3%
High-margin compounder profile
CURRENT RATIO
0.52
Liquidity is the clearest weak spot

Single most important takeaway. Roper’s historical pattern is not a classic turnaround or cyclical rebound; it's a steady compounding story whose valuation gap is being driven by the market’s very pessimistic growth assumptions...

Analog CompanyEra/EventThe ParallelWhat Happened NextImplication for This Company

Danaher

Multi-decade acquisitive compounding

Both used disciplined acquisitions to build a portfolio of high-quality businesses and steadily improve per-share economics.

Danaher re-rated over time as investors recognized the durability of its compounding model.

If Roper keeps converting acquisitions into per-share growth, the market may eventually award a similar quality premium.

Constellation Software

Long-run vertical-market software roll-up…

The closest analog for a decentralized acquisition model that prioritizes operating discipline over headline growth.

The stock compounded dramatically as reinvestment stayed disciplined and cash flows remained strong.

Roper’s rising goodwill to $21.34B and revenue/share path to $73.85 suggest a similar capital-allocation-driven story if integration stays strong.

Adobe

Transition from cyclical / product-led to recurring compounding…

A business that shifted investor perception from episodic growth to durable cash generation.

Adobe’s multiple expanded once recurring economics and margin durability became visible.

Roper’s 69.2% gross margin and 28.3% operating margin could support a comparable rerating if the market stops treating it like a slower software name.

ResMed

Quality compounder during lower-growth periods…

A company that can grow steadily and defend margins even when the market assumes maturity.

The stock often outperformed over long horizons as fundamentals stayed consistent.

Roper’s current valuation appears to reflect a maturity discount, but its 2025 revenue growth of +12.3% argues the cycle is not in decline.

Motorola Solutions

Portfolio simplification and cash-flow emphasis…

A business that became more valuable after investors focused on cash generation, more than legacy classification.

The market rewarded predictable cash flow and recurring economics with a higher multiple.

Roper’s Safety Rank 1, Earnings Predictability 100, and Price Stability 100 suggest the market may eventually value its durability more explicitly.

Exhibit 1: TIMELINE data | Source: SEC EDGAR audited financials; Quantitative model outputs; Independent institutional analyst data

Analogy framework. The best historical comparator is not a high-beta software name but a long-duration capital allocator like Danaher or Constellation Software, where acquisition quality and reinvestment discipline matter more than quarterly excitement...

MetricValue

Gross margin

69.2%

Operating margin

28.3%

Revenue growth

+12.3%

Net income

-0.8%

Exhibit 2: TIMELINE data | Source: SEC EDGAR filings; XVARY calculations and scenario analysis.

Cycle Position: Mature Compounder, Not Turnaround

MATURITY

Roper sits in the Maturity phase of its business cycle: it's already highly profitable, still growing, and no longer dependent on a single product or a one-time turnaround. The evidence is the 2025 audited profile of 69.2% gross margin, 28.3% operating margin, and +12.3% revenue growth YoY, alongside a modestly negative -0.8% net income growth YoY. That combination says the company is still compounding, but the next leg of value creation is likely to come from capital allocation and mix, not from a new growth regime...

Recurring Playbook: Acquire, Integrate, Compound

PLAYBOOK

Roper’s historical pattern is consistent and recognizable: deploy capital into acquired assets, preserve operating discipline, and let per-share economics compound over time. The 2025 balance sheet shows the same pattern in hard numbers, with goodwill rising to $21.34B, long-term debt rising to $9.30B, and total assets reaching $34.58B. That's classic acquisition-led expansion, not organic-only scaling, and it implies management is still using the balance sheet as a growth engine...

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appendix & sources

sources · methodology

How we source the tape, verify levels, and align this report with XVARY deep-dive standards.

Sources: SEC filings, company disclosures, market data vendors, and sources cited in the sections above. For investment presentation use only.