Start here if you're new
what it is
Rockwell sells the hardware, software, and services that keep factories running, automated, and easier to manage.
how it gets paid
Last year Rockwell Auto made $8.3B in revenue. Intelligent Devices was the main engine at $3.75B, or 45% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.9% last year. The 17.0% EPS beat mattered most because this stock needs proof that earnings are recovering fast enough to justify a 38.2x trailing multiple.
what just happened
Rockwell posted a solid quarter, with EPS of $2.75 versus a $2.35 estimate, a 17.0% beat.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
38.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
24.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 68/100 — average
What they do
Rockwell sells the hardware, software, and services that keep factories running, automated, and easier to manage.
Rockwell wins because it sits inside the factory, not outside it. Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services touch the same customer workflow, and leaving means replacing gear, retraining people, and risking downtime. That stack helped produce a 27.0% operating margin and 24.0% return on capital, which is plain English for: your capital is being put to work better than at most industrial companies.
How they make money
$8.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.9% last year
Intelligent Devices
$3.75B
Software & Control
$2.42B
Lifecycle Services
$2.17B
The products that matter
factory automation systems
Industrial Automation
$8.3B revenue
it's the entire $8.3B business in this snapshot, and total company revenue only grew 0.9% last year. that tells you the 2026 story is less about discovering a new engine and more about getting existing demand to speed up again.
entire business
Key numbers
27.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Rockwell keeps $27 from every $100 of sales before interest and taxes.
24.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money invested in the business → so what: this is a high-quality business, not just a cyclical bounce.
$8.3B
annual revenue
Revenue → total sales → so what: the business barely grew 0.9% vs. prior year, which is a weak base for a premium multiple.
38.2x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with past 12-month earnings → so what: you are paying a rich price for a company still proving its recovery.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $2.6B (5% of capital)
- net profit margin 17.4% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 39% — $0.39 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ROK 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,470.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Rockwell posted a solid quarter, with EPS of $2.75 versus a $2.35 estimate, a 17.0% beat.
Revenue reached $2.1B, up 12% vs. prior year, while gross margin came in at 48.3%. The rebound story is finally showing up in quarterly numbers after a weak fiscal 2024.
$2.1B
revenue
$2.75
eps
48.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 17.0% EPS beat mattered most because this stock needs proof that earnings are recovering fast enough to justify a 38.2x trailing multiple.
-
rockwell automation’s earnings recovery should continue into fiscal 2026 (ends september 30th).
-
profits per share rose 8% last fiscal year thanks primarily to sooner-than-expected restructuring savings (in the fall of 2024, leadership actually forecasted that earnings would decline in 2025).
-
revenues inched up only slightly to $8.34 billion, but we look for healthier demand to push revenues up about 6% in fiscal 2026.roughly 100 basis points of operating margin will likely be partially offset by an expected rise in this year’s tax rate.
-
all in all, we see earnings growth approaching 14%, closer to the top end of management’s estimated $11.20 to $12.20 range.
-
domestic manufacturing capacity is set to grow substantially in coming years.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is factory spending staying soft while the stock is priced for a fiscal 2026 rebound.
med
the sales rebound does not show up
revenue grew just 0.9% last year. the current story points to roughly 6% growth next year and a move toward $9B in sales. if orders stay sluggish, the stock is left carrying a recovery narrative without the recovery.
this risk hits the entire $8.3B revenue base and directly challenges the multiple.
med
restructuring savings stop doing the heavy lifting
fiscal 2025 EPS rose to $10.53 from $9.71, helped by sooner-than-expected restructuring savings. that helped earnings recover faster than revenue. cost cuts are useful. they are not a permanent growth engine.
if the expected roughly 100-basis-point margin lift fails to materialize, the path to $11.20–$12.20 EPS gets tighter.
med
the valuation already assumes a better year
at $402.22, the stock trades at 38.2x trailing earnings and about 33.8x the $11.90 fiscal 2026 estimate. that is a rich price for an industrial business coming off 0.9% top-line growth.
when the multiple is this full, even a decent quarter can feel disappointing.
all three risks land on the same place: an $8.3B business with a 14.8% net margin and a premium valuation. if growth stays closer to 1% than 6%, the stock has less room to hide.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
fiscal 2026 revenue reacceleration
the stock is leaning on revenue growth improving from 0.9% last year toward roughly 6%. that is the first thing to watch.
metric
operating margin improvement
management is looking for roughly 100 basis points of operating margin expansion. if that fades, the EPS recovery loses force.
calendar
fiscal 2026 earnings range
the stated band is $11.20–$12.20 per share. watch whether results track the upper half or drift toward the floor.
trend
manufacturing demand backdrop
the longer-term case still leans on domestic manufacturing capacity growth. you want to see that macro theme convert into actual Rockwell sales, not just good industry headlines.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. this is normal stock risk, not unusually defensive and not especially chaotic.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3. the chart is fine, but it is not screaming that a new leg higher has started.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
management's guidance has been dependable. you usually get fewer nasty surprises here than in a typical industrial name.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 575 buyers vs. 520 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 92.3M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$314
$580
$402
current price
$447
target midpoint · +11% from current · 3-5yr high: $470 (+15% · 6% ann'l return)
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