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what it is
Rocket Lab builds rockets, satellites, and the parts around them for commercial and government space missions.
how it gets paid
FY2025 revenue was ~$602M per the consolidated statements in the earnings release. Product revenue was ~$372M and service revenue ~$230M — together they are the audited top-line split the company reports.
why it's growing
FY revenue grew ~38% vs. prior year. Q4 revenue was ~$180M, up ~36% vs Q4 2024 — both figures come straight from the Feb 26, 2026 release tables.
what just happened
Q4 GAAP EPS was $(0.09) on ~$180M revenue (same release). FY GAAP EPS was $(0.37) vs $(0.38) in FY2024 — still losing money, but the full-year loss per share ticked slightly better.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
record backlog ~$1.85B (+73% vs. prior year) — Feb 26, 2026 release
xvary composite: 29/100 — weak
Q1’26 guide: adj. EBITDA loss $(21–27)M
Neutron first launch targeted Q4 2026
What they do
Rocket Lab builds rockets, satellites, and the parts around them for commercial and government space missions.
Most space companies sell you one thing. Rocket Lab sells you the ride, the satellite, and the parts inside it. That end-to-end setup matters because 21 Electron launches in 2025 gave it repeat mission data, customer relationships, and manufacturing scale that are hard to fake.
How they make money
$602M
annual revenue · their business grew +38.0% last year
product revenues (space systems hardware)
~$372M
service revenues (launch & services)
~$230M
The products that matter
launch cadence investors can count
Electron & HASTE missions
7 launches in Q4 · 21 Electron flights in 2025
The Feb 26, 2026 release cites a quarterly record of seven missions in Q4 and 21 Electron missions in 2025 with 100% mission success for the year. That is the execution proof point the story leans on.
cadence matters
booked work ahead of revenue
backlog
~$1.85B · +73% vs. prior year
Backlog ended FY2025 at a record ~$1.85B, up 73% year on year per the same release. The debate is how fast that converts into recognized revenue and cash.
conversion risk
national security scale
SDA Tranche 3 prime
$816M contract (18 spacecraft)
The release highlights an $816 million Space Development Agency prime to design and manufacture 18 satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 program — the largest single contract the company has announced to date in that letter.
lumpy but real
Key numbers
~−38%
FY GAAP operating margin
FY2025 GAAP operating loss ~$229M on ~$602M revenue (~38% of sales) per the consolidated statements — growth is real, but the core P&L is still deep red before “adjusted” bridges.
$602M
annual revenue
This is the FY2025 revenue base from the release, after ~38% year-on-year growth.
21
annual launches
That launch count shows Rocket Lab is building repetition, which matters more than one flashy mission.
~$(101)M
FY adjusted EBITDA
FY2025 adjusted EBITDA loss ~$101M vs ~$97M in FY2024 per the non-GAAP reconciliation in the same release — improvement, but still a sizable hole.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- convertible notes + LT borrowings (net) ~$154M non-current (Dec 31, 2025 BS)
- cash & securities (illustrative) ~$829M cash + ~$270M marketable securities (current + non-current)
- FY net margin (GAAP) negative — ~$(198)M net loss on ~$602M revenue
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Multi-year total return vs. an index is not verified here from primary filings. Use your broker or index provider for a dated total-return comparison.
source: n/a — verify externally
What just happened
record quarter · still losing money
Q4 revenue was a record ~$180M (~+36% vs. prior year); GAAP EPS was $(0.09) vs $(0.10) in Q4 2024.
FY2025 revenue ~$602M (+38%). Q4 GAAP gross margin was ~38% and non-GAAP gross margin ~44% per the reconciliation tables. Q1 2026 guidance: revenue $185–200M, GAAP gross margin 34–36%, and adjusted EBITDA loss $(21–27)M at the guided ranges.
~$180M
Q4 revenue
$(0.09)
Q4 GAAP EPS
~38%
Q4 GAAP gross margin
the number that mattered
Backlog grew to ~$1.85B (+73% vs. prior year) in the release narrative — that is the forward-looking demand signal; margins improved, but operating loss is still large on a GAAP basis.
-
Feb 26, 2026: record Q4 revenue ~$180M; record FY revenue ~$602M (+38% vs. prior year); record backlog ~$1.85B (+73% vs. prior year).
-
21 Electron missions in 2025 with 100% success; seven missions flown in Q4 (quarterly record).
-
$816M SDA prime contract for 18 missile-warning/tracking spacecraft (Tracking Layer Tranche 3).
-
Neutron first launch retargeted to Q4 2026 after stage 1 tank test failure — schedule update in the same release.
-
Q1 2026 guide: revenue $185–200M (~+57% vs. prior year at midpoint vs Q1 2025, per company math in the release headline).
source: Rocket Lab Q4/FY2025 earnings release (GlobeNewswire, Feb 26, 2026) · consolidated tables
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What could go wrong
the risk is not abstract. Rocket Lab needs to convert a ~$1.85B backlog into steady revenue, keep launch cadence high, and show a credible path on Neutron (now targeted Q4 2026) while GAAP losses shrink. if execution or conversion wobbles, a premium multiple gets harder to defend.
high
launch cadence slips below the 21-flight proof point
Rocket Lab just showed it can launch often. if that cadence slips, one of the market's clearest signs of execution quality disappears with it.
21 launches last year is the proof investors are anchoring to
high
~$1.85B backlog does not convert into revenue fast enough
backlog is useful; recognized revenue and cash matter more. if milestones slip or programs push right, the growth narrative meets an accounting reality check.
investors are underwriting conversion speed, not just contract wins
med
losses linger longer than the story implies
FY2025 GAAP EPS was $(0.37) vs $(0.38) in FY2024 — modest improvement, still a large GAAP operating loss. adjusted EBITDA remains negative at guided Q1 ranges.
a large equity value against negative GAAP earnings leaves little room for a growth or margin stall
med
government and defense timing makes the quarters lumpy
the visible revenue base is tied to aerospace and defense work. that can be sticky demand. it can also shift by program milestone, procurement calendar, or customer delay.
when annual revenue is $602M, a few delayed programs leave fingerprints
kill criterion in plain english: if launch cadence fades, backlog stops expanding from ~$1.85B, or GAAP losses / adjusted EBITDA fail to improve vs guided Q1 loss ranges, the stock risks repricing toward “lumpy defense contractor” rather than “platform.”
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
Q1 revenue $185–200M vs adjusted EBITDA loss $(21–27)M guide
the company explicitly guided Q1 ranges in the Feb 26 release — the next print tests whether top-line acceleration can coexist with narrowing operating losses.
calendar
backlog conversion, not just backlog dollars
~$1.85B backlog is a headline; revenue recognition timing on big programs (e.g., SDA-scale work) drives how that headline shows up in GAAP results.
trend
launch cadence after the 21-flight year
one record year is a milestone. two is a pattern. if Rocket Lab keeps that tempo, the market has a harder time calling the story speculative fluff.
risk
FY GAAP EPS path after $(0.37) in 2025
if revenue grows but GAAP net loss does not keep improving, the question becomes where operating leverage actually lands — especially with R&D and integration costs.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 is the lowest rating. in human-speak, analysts think the near-term setup looks weak even after the huge three-year run.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 means this is more volatile than most stocks. if you own it, you should expect wider swings than the average name.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 points to above-average price strength. the quiet part: the tape looks healthier than the composite score.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
13F-style buyer/seller counts are not sourced on this page. Use SEC filings and your data vendor for net institutional flow by quarter.
source: n/a
Price targets
analyst targets not verified here
Consensus price targets change with every refresh. This snapshot only fixes illustrative spot $67.44 for layout — not a forecast.
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