Start here if you're new
what it is
Republic flies regional routes for big airlines, so you are buying outsourced flying rather than ticket sales.
how it gets paid
Last year Republic Airways made $103M in revenue. American contract flying was the main engine at $46M, or 45% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 78.3% last year. The number that mattered was -$1.25 of EPS.
what just happened
Revenue reached $278M, but EPS was still -$1.25.
At a glance
C balance sheet — red flag territory — real financial stress
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
3.3% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$33.13 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2025 rev est
xvary composite: 11/100 — weak
What they do
Republic flies regional routes for big airlines, so you are buying outsourced flying rather than ticket sales.
CPA → big airlines pay Republic to operate flights under long-term contracts → so what: you are buying contracted flying, not ticket-price roulette. After the Mesa deal, the combined company has 310 E-Jets and more than 1,300 daily departures. That scale makes Republic harder to swap out overnight.
How they make money
$103M
annual revenue · their business grew -78.3% last year
American contract flying
$46M
Delta contract flying
$31M
United contract flying
$18M
Other flying and services
$8M
The products that matter
fixed-fee regional flying
Capacity Purchase Agreements
~$1.9B · about 95% of revenue
this is the whole story: roughly $1.9B of the ~$2.0B revenue base comes from flying contracted routes for major carriers.
core
small non-core revenue
Other Revenue
~$100M · about 5% of revenue
the rest of the business is only about $100M, which tells you there is no second engine if contract flying stalls.
limited diversification
fleet scale catalyst
Mesa Air Merger
late 2025 / early 2026 target
this is not revenue today. it's the strategic bet that a larger combined operation can spread costs better than a business that just posted a -$5.10 quarterly EPS result.
catalyst watch
Key numbers
-$33.13
fy2024 eps est
$2B
fy2025 rev est
n/a
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
C
strength
- balance sheet grade C — very weak — significant financial distress
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $27M (4% of capital)
C — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for RJET right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue reached $278M, but EPS was still -$1.25.
Revenue rose 207% vs. prior year from EDGAR, which sounds great until you see the loss per share. This is the quiet part: more flying has not fixed profitability yet.
$278M
revenue
$1.25
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was -$1.25 of EPS, because revenue can grow 207% and the stock still has a problem if each share keeps losing money.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is not having enough pilots to fly fixed-fee capacity for American, Delta, and United.
high
pilot shortage
regional airlines live or die on crew availability. if Republic cannot staff aircraft, contract revenue does not matter because planes do not fly themselves.
this pressure can hit roughly 95% of the ~$2.0B revenue base because capacity purchase agreements are the business.
high
Mesa Air merger execution
the merger is supposed to create scale. if integration is messy, the company keeps the complexity and misses the benefit.
a failed integration would leave investors with the same weak economics, just wrapped in a larger fleet story.
med
partner concentration
Republic flies for three major airlines. that looks diversified until you remember the business model depends on keeping all three relationships healthy.
if one large partner cuts flying or reprices terms, the effect is immediate because there is no big direct-to-consumer revenue stream to offset it.
med
headline earnings quality
the stock screens at 10.9x trailing earnings, but management is coming off non-recurring items. that makes the valuation look cleaner than the underlying operations.
if investors stop giving credit to one-time-driven profits, the stock gets judged on -$5.10 quarterly EPS instead.
between pilot availability, merger execution, and partner concentration, the risk set touches roughly 95% of a ~$2.0B revenue base.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
quarterly EPS needs to stop looking catastrophic
the latest quarter came in at -$5.10 per share. until that number moves toward something durable, every other talking point is secondary.
calendar
march 4, 2026 earnings call
Q4 and full-year results are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. this is where investors find out whether the base business is stabilizing or just surviving.
risk
Mesa close and integration details
the merger has been framed as a scale fix. watch the closing timeline and the first signs that fleets, crews, and partner contracts are actually fitting together.
trend
revenue trend around the $2.0B base
revenue declined 4.4% last year. flat is not great, but further erosion would tell you the contract model is shrinking before the merger gets a chance to help.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust a smooth earnings path here. expect sharp swings.
price stability
5 / 100
this stock has been less stable than 95% of the market. that is what distressed small-cap behavior looks like.
balance sheet grade
C
not an immediate insolvency signal, but nowhere near a margin-of-safety balance sheet either.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for RJET is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$18
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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