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what it is
Rio digs up the raw materials your world runs on, then sells them into markets that swing with global growth.
how it gets paid
Last year Rio made $57.6B in revenue. Iron Ore was the main engine at $34.2B, or 59% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.4% last year. For the full year 2025, iron ore production should be 325 million tons, bauxite 62 mt, aluminum 3.5 mt, copper 875 kilo tons, and lithium.
what just happened
Quarterly revenue was $26.9B and stayed flat, but EPS fell to $2.77, down 22% vs. prior year.
At a glance
A+ balance sheet — rock-solid finances — built to survive anything
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
Rio digs up the raw materials your world runs on, then sells them into markets that swing with global growth.
Rio wins on scale and ore quality. It operates in 35 countries, employs about 60,000 people, and still posts a 45.5% operating margin. That means your downside is tied to commodity prices, but your upside comes from owning assets few rivals can replicate.
How they make money
$57.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.4% last year
Iron Ore
$34.2B
+3.0%
Aluminium
$12.3B
+2.0%
Copper
$7.9B
+12.0%
Minerals
$2.2B
8.0%
Other products
$1.0B
0.0%
The products that matter
mining and shipping iron ore
Pilbara Iron Ore
$32.2B revenue · 56% of total
shipments rose 7% to 91.3 million tons. this is still the business that pays most of the bills.
45.5% margin
mining and producing copper
Copper
$14.4B revenue · +114%
record EBITDA hit $7.4B in 2025. if you want the non-iron-ore bull case, this is where it lives.
record EBITDA
aluminum and minerals portfolio
Aluminum & Minerals
$11.0B revenue · flat
this $11.0B segment adds diversification, but flat growth means it is stabilizing the mix more than accelerating it.
mix balancer
Key numbers
45.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the mines → so what: Rio keeps almost $0.46 from each sales dollar before interest and taxes.
7.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with last year's earnings → so what: you are paying a low multiple for a business with a strong balance sheet.
4.6%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → your cash payout on today's price → so what: you get paid while waiting, if commodity prices cooperate.
$21.6B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → what the company owes over many years → so what: at 15% of capital, leverage looks manageable.
Financial health
A+
strength
- balance sheet grade A+ — near the highest rating possible
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $21.6B (15% of capital)
- net profit margin 22.8% — keeps 23 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 21% — $0.21 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A+ with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in RIO 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,980.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Quarterly revenue was $26.9B and stayed flat, but EPS fell to $2.77, down 22% vs. prior year.
This was a classic miner quarter. Sales held steady, but profit per share shrank, which tells you pricing and costs did more damage than volume helped.
$26.9B
revenue
$2.77
eps
32.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 22% EPS drop mattered most because flat revenue with falling profit usually means your earnings quality is getting worse.
-
rio tinto released positive third-quarter production results.although the heavyweight miner doesn’t release detailed financial results, it divulges how mineral production is progressing for the june to september time frame.
-
production guidance was raised for copper at oyu tolgoi, iron ore at simandou, and lithium at arcadian and rincon.for the full year 2025, iron ore production should be 325 million tons (mt), bauxite 62 mt, aluminum 3.5 mt, copper 875 kilo tons (kt), and lithium 60 kt.
-
these enhanced metrics helped send the adr’s price up over 20% since our september report.
-
management also announced that it was endeavoring to make rio a leaner more streamlined entity.to this end, it is shaving its business units down to three (iron ore, copper, and aluminum & lithium).
-
it will also reduce capital spending to $10 billion in 2026, dialing back some lithium outlays.it’s also halting noncore studies, projects, and programs, as well as selling off some noncore assets. presumably these moves are an attempt to try and offset global headwinds to the industry, as outlined below. although there will undoubtedly be some revenue-enhancing opportunities for rio in 2026, it will likely be rough sailing.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is iron ore prices slipping against a 60% payout policy.
high
iron ore price shock
iron ore generated $32.2B of revenue. a sharp drop in price would hit the cash engine first, and the dividend policy would feel it almost immediately.
could cut annual EBITDA fast
med
lithium buildout execution
the $2.5B Rincon lithium project targets 60,000 tons of annual production. delays or cost overruns would weaken the argument that Rio can diversify away from iron ore on a useful timeline.
puts future diversification at risk
med
cash flow not matching earnings
underlying EBITDA rose to $25.4B, yet first-half free cash flow fell 31% to $1.96B. if that gap persists, the 60% payout policy gets a lot less comfortable.
pressures dividends, capex, and investor confidence
iron ore still drives $32.2B of revenue, so a price shock there can overwhelm better copper results fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
h1 2026 earnings report
expected late July 2026. the key question is whether free cash flow rebounds from the $1.96B first-half 2025 level.
cash flow
cash conversion versus EBITDA
$25.4B of EBITDA sounds powerful. if cash keeps lagging, the market will treat those earnings as lower quality.
mix shift
copper staying hot
copper revenue jumped 114% to $14.4B. if that growth normalizes fast, the diversification story cools with it.
capital allocation
2026 capex discipline
Rio plans to spend $10B in 2026. watch whether the lower spend protects returns or simply delays future growth.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
45 / 100
profits are lumpy. in human-speak, this is what happens when the commodity price is part of the income statement.
risk rank
2
that means lower financial risk than most stocks. the business is cyclical, but the balance sheet is sturdy.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 396 buyers vs. 286 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$49
$87
$76
current price
$68
target midpoint · 10% from current · 3-5yr high: $90 (+20% · 10% ann'l return)
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