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what it is
Rigetti builds quantum computers and lets customers use them through its own cloud and larger cloud platforms.
how it gets paid
Last year Rigetti Computing made $7M in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 34.3% last year. 27.0% gross margin matters because it shows the business still has a long way to go before scale turns into profits.
what just happened
Latest reported revenue reached $5M, but the company still posted a loss.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
20.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 18/100 — weak
-$0.20 fy2027 eps est
$160M fy2029 rev est
What they do
Rigetti builds quantum computers and lets customers use them through its own cloud and larger cloud platforms.
Rigetti controls more of the stack than most peers. It designs the chip, builds the system, and sells access, which gives you more shots on goal from one lab. The proof is technical: management says it hit 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, and the research note says only IBM has deployed a comparable system.
How they make money
$7M
annual revenue · revenue declined -34.3% last year
total revenue
$7M
34.3%
The products that matter
108-qubit quantum computer
Cepheus-1-108Q
$8.4M order attached
This flagship system is tied to the $8.4M c-dac order. It is now targeting deployment by the end of March 2026 after a delay caused by qubit interference. That makes one machine a business milestone, not just an engineering one.
deployment test
9-qubit quantum system
Novera QPU
$5.7M orders
The smaller Novera systems account for $5.7M in orders expected to ship in the first half of 2026. For a company with $7.1M in annual revenue, that is not side business. That is the near-term commercial case.
near-term revenue
cloud quantum access
Cloud Access & Other
$2.8M revenue
This segment generated $2.8M last year and fell 25%. It keeps users and researchers connected to the platform. It is still too small to carry the business if hardware slips.
small base
Key numbers
$160M
2029 revenue est.
That is the future revenue target behind the story. Today the company does $7 million, so you are paying for a business about 23 times larger than the current one.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Rigetti loses about $11.94 for every $1 of revenue.
99.9%
gate fidelity
Gate fidelity → how often the machine gets operations right → so what: better accuracy is the clearest sign the tech is getting closer to commercial use.
1.75
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → so what: this name has moved about 75% more than the market.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- return on equity 20% — $0.20 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for RGTI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest reported revenue reached $5M, but the company still posted a loss.
Gross margin was 27.0%, which means most of the revenue still disappears before it reaches the bottom line. EPS was -$0.65 in the latest quarter.
$5M
revenue
$0.65
eps
27.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
27.0% gross margin matters because it shows the business still has a long way to go before scale turns into profits.
-
rigetti computing’s most significant development in recent months is a technical one.the core business focuses on building quantum computers that are both fast and accurate, two properties that are difficult to achieve simultaneously and are critical for the technology’s practical use.
-
in the december quarter, the company reached a milestone in accuracy: 99.9% fidelity on its two-qubit gate operations, the fundamental unit of quantum computation, on a prototype platform.this result affirms the company’s superconducting architecture as a viable path to large-scale quantum computing. the flagship 108-qubit cepheus-1-108q system, delayed after engineers identified interference problems between qubits at higher counts, was redesigned internally and is now aiming for deployment around the end of march.
-
according to management, only ibm has deployed a comparable system.
-
the order book reflects growing interest in on-premises hardware.
-
rigetti started 2026 with roughly $14.1 million in contracted system sales.this includes an $8.4 million order from india’s centre for development of advanced computing, or c-dac, for a 108-qubit system to be delivered in the second half of the year, and $5.7 million in orders for smaller 9qubit novera systems shipping in the first and second quarters. the c-dac deal is significant because it will be the first quantum computer purchased by the indian government, integrated into a national supercomputing environment.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Rigetti's risk stack is unusually concentrated: one delayed flagship system, one tiny revenue base, and a market cap that already assumes eventual scale.
high
cash burn arrives before commercial demand does
Rigetti lost $216M over the last twelve months on $7.1M in revenue. That is a research burn profile, not a scaled operating profile.
If revenue does not ramp materially, new capital or dilution stays in the conversation.
high
Cepheus delay risk is now business risk
The flagship 108-qubit system already slipped after interference issues. The $8.4M c-dac order is tied to that platform.
Another delay would not just hurt optics. It would pressure one of the few contracts large enough to matter.
med
technical wins may stay separate from commercial wins
99.9% gate fidelity is meaningful. Last year's revenue still fell 34%, and Cloud Access & Other revenue fell 25%.
The danger is simple: the science works, the stock celebrates, and the income statement still does not catch up.
med
valuation leaves very little room for another miss
A $6B market cap, 5 / 100 price stability, and a $6–$27 trading range tell you this stock is priced on future relevance more than current cash generation.
When story stocks lose momentum, multiple compression does the work that fundamentals never had the chance to do.
A company with $7.1M in revenue, a $216M trailing loss, and a $6B market cap does not get many execution mistakes for free.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings report expected may 11, 2026
You want three things at once: Cepheus timing, recognized revenue, and a cleaner read on burn.
metric
$14.1M contracted sales converting into reported revenue
Backlog is encouraging. The market eventually wants shipment and revenue recognition, not just purchase orders.
risk
Cepheus-1-108Q deployment on the revised timeline
This is the key technical and commercial proof point. One more slip would hit confidence hard.
trend
the 1,000-plus qubit roadmap meeting shipped reality
Management is aiming for a 1,000-qubit system by the end of 2026. Roadmaps are easy to print. Delivered systems are the proof beat.
Analyst rankings
balance sheet view
C++
below average balance sheet grade. in human-speak, this company does not have endless room to miss and keep spending the same way.
risk profile
5
risk rank 5 means it is safer than roughly 5% of stocks. that is the opposite of a defensive name.
price stability
5 / 100
you should expect big moves. this trades like a proof-of-concept story, not a steady operating business.
estimate quality
thin
snapshot target data is sparse and a little messy here. that's what happens when coverage is lighter than the valuation suggests.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 202 buyers vs. 169 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$9
$45
$18
current price
$27
target midpoint · +53% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+215% · 32% ann'l return)
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