Start here if you're new
what it is
Ruger designs and sells firearms, plus castings, accessories, and replacement parts.
how it gets paid
Last year Sturm, Ruger & made $546M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 261.5% last year. EPS of $0.21 versus $0.35 expected was the tell: sales were fine.
what just happened
Ruger missed by 40% after EPS came in at $0.21 versus $0.35 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
28.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Ruger designs and sells firearms, plus castings, accessories, and replacement parts.
Ruger gets 99% of 2024 sales in the U.S. That means your demand sits in one market, not a global maze. The brand has lasted 75 years, so leaving is painful even before politics enters.
How they make money
$546M
annual revenue · their business grew +261.5% last year
total revenue
$546M
+261.5%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells firearms
Firearms
$546M revenue
it's the entire $546M business, and a 6.2% net margin tells you volume matters more than pricing power.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$31
target
That is 16% below your $36.83 price, so the stock is priced ahead of the forecast.
28.3x
trailing p/e
You pay $28.30 for each $1 of trailing earnings. That is rich next to a -2.3% operating margin.
2.1%
dividend yield
The dividend pays you while you wait. It is smaller than the 16% target gap.
$546M
annual sales
The $546M in sales is small. One weak quarter can move the whole story.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- net profit margin 10.7% — keeps 11 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in RGR 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,130.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Ruger missed by 40% after EPS came in at $0.21 versus $0.35 expected.
Revenue was $151M, up 4% vs. prior year, but EPS fell 66% from last year. The miss was not about sales collapse; it was about profit.
$151M
revenue
$0.21
eps
17.8%
gross margin
EPS miss
EPS of $0.21 versus $0.35 expected was the tell: sales were fine, profit was not.
-
what about the stock?
-
at the time of this writing, rgr stock has increased in price by about 15% thus far in 2026, handily outpacing the broader market indices.while the overall retail environment for firearms is currently rather subdued, we believe that the stock has bounced along with the broader market averages. however, the stock’s recent alpha (excess return) is likely due to an investor group’s increase in ruger.
-
beretta holding has built a nearly 10% stake in the company, which has spurred speculation of a possible takeover offer or potential shake-up in the board of directors.
-
a strategic partnership is also a possibility, as beretta is the world’s oldest gun manufacturer.
-
a rather unique dividend policy is worth mentioning.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is u.s. civilian firearms demand weakening while regulation tightens.
med
u.s. firearms regulation and retailer restrictions
the company sells firearms primarily in the united states. if state laws, retailer policies, or compliance costs tighten, demand and distribution both take a hit.
impact: all $546M of revenue sits inside the regulated firearms category
med
consumer demand swings
when dealer orders slow or end-market demand softens, this business feels it quickly. annual revenue grew just 1.9%, which tells you there is not much momentum to cushion a downturn.
impact: one soft cycle can hit the entire $546M revenue base
high
margin compression
full-year net margin was 6.2%, and the latest quarter came in at -0.8%. that is a small cushion. discounting, mix shifts, or cost pressure can erase earnings fast.
impact: a 1-point margin swing on $546M of sales is roughly $5.5M of profit
med
valuation reset if recovery slips
the stock trades at 28.3x trailing earnings even after three-year underperformance. if EPS stays closer to $1.30 than the $1.90 estimate, the multiple has room to fall.
impact: the market can compress a premium multiple without any revenue collapse
all $546M of revenue comes from one regulated product category, and recent profitability is thin enough that even small demand or margin changes matter.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
quarterly margin
the latest quarter ran at -0.8% margin. if that does not move back toward the full-year 6.2% level, the earnings rebound case gets shaky fast.
metric
revenue growth above +1.9%
$550M in fy2026 revenue implies only a modest step up from $546M. you want to see demand improve by more than that.
calendar
next earnings print
this is the quickest reality check. after a 27% full-year EPS decline, the next report needs to show the decline has bottomed.
trend
price strength versus fundamentals
the stock is up about 15% in 2026 while analysts still show a $31 midpoint target. either the market sees a recovery early, or the stock got ahead of the math.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — analysts see weaker-than-average performance odds from here. in human-speak: they are not leaning into this setup.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — not especially safe, not especially dangerous. the bigger issue is earnings variability, not balance-sheet stress.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the lowest rating. translation: the chart still carries a lot of baggage even after the recent bounce.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings are hard to handicap here. when you own RGR, you should expect uneven quarters rather than a smooth glide path.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
86 buyers vs. 98 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 11.3M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$45
$37
current price
$31
target midpoint · 16% from current · 3-5yr high: $65 (+75% · 17% ann'l return)
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