Start here if you're new
what it is
REX makes ethanol, animal-feed byproducts, and corn oil, then collects a little rent from leftover real estate.
how it gets paid
Last year Rex American Res made $642M in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 22.9% last year. $493M mattered most because it showed how violently ethanol revenue can snap back.
what just happened
Revenue hit $493M, up 180% vs. prior year, while EPS rose to $1.18.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
26.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
10.4% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$1.65 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 63/100 — average
What they do
REX makes ethanol, animal-feed byproducts, and corn oil, then collects a little rent from leftover real estate.
REX wins with scale and balance-sheet restraint. It has interests in six ethanol facilities with 730 million gallons of annual capacity, and its effective ownership is about 300 million gallons. Low debt (1% of capital → almost no financing pressure → you can stay standing when ethanol prices get ugly) gives you a better shot of surviving a commodity business.
How they make money
$642M
annual revenue · revenue declined -22.9% last year
total revenue
$642M
22.9%
The products that matter
fuel and industrial alcohol production
Ethanol & By-Products
$651M · core revenue engine
It generated $651M in trailing revenue. That's the main event, which means your results still rise and fall with the ethanol spread.
commodity core
capacity expansion project
One Earth Energy Plant
early 2026 target
Management reiterated an early 2026 completion timeline. If that date holds, the growth story stays intact. If it slips, the story gets much less interesting very quickly.
key catalyst
non-core supporting operations
Other Operations
$34M · small contributor
This piece brought in $34M. Useful, but not nearly large enough to rescue the quarter when ethanol economics turn against you.
not the thesis
Key numbers
26.6x
trailing p/e
You are paying 26.6 times trailing earnings for a commodity business. That is rich unless profits keep climbing.
13.4%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business, before interest and taxes. At 13.4%, REX is profitable but not bulletproof.
$16M
long-term debt
Long-term debt is just 1% of capital. Plain English: the balance sheet is unusually clean for an energy-linked producer.
10.4%
return on capital
Return on capital means how much profit the business earns on the money tied up inside it. At 10.4%, this is decent, not elite.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $16M (1% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for REX right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $493M, up 180% vs. prior year, while EPS rose to $1.18.
The quarter looked strong on sales and EPS, but the full-year picture was less clean. Annual revenue still fell 22.9% to $642M, which tells you this business can sprint and stumble in the same year.
$493M
revenue
$1.18
eps
13.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$493M mattered most because it showed how violently ethanol revenue can snap back, even after a weak full year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
REX does not need a scandal to disappoint you. It just needs corn, ethanol pricing, or the One Earth schedule to move the wrong way.
high
ethanol-corn crush spread
REX sells ethanol and buys feedstock. If ethanol prices soften while corn stays expensive, a 7.73% net margin does not give you much room to hide.
This is the number-one reason a good quarter turns into a forgettable one.
med
One Earth expansion execution
The expansion is targeted for early 2026 and sits at the center of the growth story. Delays, cost overruns, or weaker output would weaken the reason investors pay 22.6x earnings today.
If the catalyst slips, the premium multiple usually does not wait politely.
med
fuel demand and blending economics
This business depends on ethanol staying attractive in the fuel mix. Demand softness or less favorable blending economics would pressure volumes and realized pricing at the same time.
You are not just underwriting management. You are underwriting the market for ethanol itself.
low
ownership concentration
88.1% of shares are held by institutions. That's a lot of professional money in a roughly $1B small cap, which can amplify moves when funds de-risk or rotate.
The balance sheet is steady. The share price does not have to be.
With a 7.73% net margin and a growth case tied to one expansion project, you do not need a long list of mistakes before the story starts looking ordinary again.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q4 & full-year 2025 earnings on 2026-03-26
This is the next real checkpoint. You want an update on the One Earth timeline, margin commentary, and whether the Q3 beat was a one-quarter spread gift or something that lasts longer.
metric
net margin versus the current 7.73%
This is the cleanest scoreboard for whether ethanol economics are helping or hurting. A thin-margin commodity business does not get many free mistakes.
risk
expansion timeline discipline
Management says early 2026. Treat any delay as a real thesis event, not a scheduling footnote.
trend
institutional ownership at 88.1%
That much institutional ownership can support a premium valuation. It can also make the stock move sharply if sentiment turns across the commodity group.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
results are hard to model because ethanol margins move around. in human-speak, expect lumpy quarters.
risk rank
2
this suggests lower balance-sheet risk than most stocks. in plain english: the business is cyclical, but the finances are sturdier than the earnings stream.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for REX is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$34
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive