XVARY Composite Score
53
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
QXO sells roofing and building materials through 600-plus distribution centers and 3,000 trucks across North America.
How it gets paid
Last year Qxo made $6.8B in revenue. roofing was the main engine at $4.1B, or 60% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 11925.0% last year. The colorado-based business distributes lumber, trusses, windows, doors, construction supplies, waterproofing, roofing materials, and other products to customers in the sun belt and mountain states.
What just happened
QXO posted $4.6B in quarterly revenue, but EPS at $0.02 missed the $0.09 estimate by 77.78%.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
76.4x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.70 fy2027 eps est
XVARY composite: 53/100 — below average
What They Do
QXO sells roofing and building materials through 600-plus distribution centers and 3,000 trucks across North America.
This business wins on reach and repetition. With more than 600 distribution centers and 3,000 trucks, QXO is built to be the supplier your contractor calls when a job cannot wait. Scale → more inventory nearby → faster delivery, so what: you get a distributor that can be harder to replace when timing matters.
How They Make Money
$6.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +11925.0% last year
roofing
$4.1B
siding-and-exteriors
$1.6B
waterproofing-insulation-and-other
$1.1B
The Products That Matter
Supplies contractors and distributors
Building materials and products
$6.8B · essentially the whole business
it is the company’s $6.8B revenue base today, and this snapshot does not break that total into smaller operating segments.
single disclosed stream
Key Numbers
76.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price relative to past profit → so what: you are paying a premium multiple for a company still showing uneven earnings.
$6.8B
annual revenue
That is the current scale after the transformation, and it matters because distributors win with density and purchasing power.
3.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: the core business is not yet throwing off much profit.
$2.25B
kodiak deal
This acquisition is big enough to change the story fast, for better or worse.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $3.2B (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.7% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in QXO 3 years ago → it's now worth $10930.
The index would have given you $14540.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
QXO posted $4.6B in quarterly revenue, but EPS at $0.02 missed the $0.09 estimate by 77.78%.
Revenue rose 70% vs. prior year as acquisitions changed the company's size overnight. The quiet part is margin: gross margin was 22.4%, but the latest-quarter EPS picture remains messy, with Yahoo also showing -$0.46 on a Vs. last year comparison.
$4.6B
revenue
$0.02
eps
22.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 77.78% EPS miss matters most because this stock trades on future integration success, and misses make investors question that whole script.
-
Qxo, inc. is getting close to completing another significant acquisition.nearly one year ago, this enterprise, led by bradley jacobs, acquired beacon roofing for about $11 billion, establishing a core business operation. management is working to bolster this operation’s financial performance via enhanced pricing, productivity & efficiency, supply-chain & distribution processes, product offerings, and geographic market coverage.
-
The fragmented residential & commercial roofing sector presents ample long-term opportunities.
-
Mr.jacobs looks to capture a larger portion of the $800 billion domestic building supplies sector by increasing the company’s scale.
-
In february, another deal was announced to purchase kodiak building partners for $2.25 billion.
-
Kodiak generates $2.4 billion in annual sales, and lifts qxo’s addressable market to $200 billion.the colorado-based business distributes lumber, trusses, windows, doors, construction supplies, waterproofing, roofing materials, and other products to customers in the sun belt and mountain states.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is multiple compression if growth execution slips.
High
Valuation leaves no room for a stumble
At 76.4x trailing earnings, the stock already prices in much better earnings power than the current $0.70 fiscal 2027 estimate suggests.
76.4x trailing p/e on a 20/100 predictability score
Med
The business changed too fast to model with confidence
Revenue jumped +11925.0% from last year. That kind of reset creates a new story, but it also wipes out the comfort of historical comparability.
20/100 earnings predictability is the market’s way of saying the model is still foggy
Med
Volatility is part of the package
Price stability is 5/100 and the stock has traded between $12 and $28 over the last 52 weeks. That is not a quiet holding.
a 2.3x swing between the low and high tells you sentiment moves fast here
Low
Balance sheet is fine, not heroic
$3.2B of long-term debt equals 16% of capital. That is manageable, but it does reduce room for error if operating performance disappoints.
B+ balance sheet, not an A-range cushion
Put it together and you get a stock with 76.4x trailing earnings, 20/100 predictability, and 5/100 price stability. That is a lot of expectation on top of a still-forming operating profile.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Watch whether margins improve from here
22.4% gross margin and 9.7% net margin are respectable. For a 76.4x stock, respectable is not enough forever.
Risk
Watch for any crack in the growth narrative
The street sees $20B in fiscal 2029 revenue versus $6.8B today. If that path starts slipping, the multiple does the same.
Trend
Watch institutional flow, not just headlines
Net buying has lasted 3 straight quarters, including 240 buyers versus 117 sellers in 4q2025. That support matters until it stops.
Calendar
Watch the next reset in estimates
With 20/100 earnings predictability, estimate revisions carry more information than usual. This story changes when the model changes.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
In human-speak: analysts do not trust a straight-line forecast here. Expect revisions and noise.
risk rank
3
That puts QXO around the middle on balance-sheet and operating risk. Not reckless. Not defensive.
xvary composite
53 / 100
Below average overall. The setup has upside if execution lands, but the easy part of the story is already in the price.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 240 buyers vs. 117 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.7B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$54
$23
Current price
$36
Target midpoint · +57% from current · 3-5yr high: $50 (+120% · 21% ann'l return)
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