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what it is
It runs Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs through 32,125 restaurants in more than 120 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Restaurant Brands made $9.4B in revenue. Tim Hortons was the main engine at $3.9B, or 42% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 12.2% last year on ~$9.4B. Ignore $7.0B and 185% vs. prior year as “latest quarter”—they do not reconcile to that FY total without a different line item or period label.
what just happened
QSR missed the Street: $0.25 versus $0.93 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
18.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
4.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 50/100 — below average
What they do
It runs Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs through 32,125 restaurants in more than 120 countries.
95% of the restaurants are franchised. That means other people fund most of the 32,125 locations while you collect royalty checks. Compare that with a chain that owns every store, where the rent, labor, and fryer repairs land on your books.
How they make money
$9.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +12.2% last year
Tim Hortons
$3.9B
Burger King
$2.9B
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen
$2.0B
Firehouse Subs
$0.6B
The products that matter
global quick-service franchising
Franchise portfolio
$9.4B revenue · ~15% net margin (feed)
it's the whole $9.4B business. the appeal is not gadget-like product novelty. it's the ability of well-known restaurant brands to keep producing royalties, margins, and enough cash to support a 4.3% yield.
cash engine
Key numbers
95%
franchised
95% franchised means other people own most of the stores, and you collect the fees.
$13.4B
debt
Debt is 38% of capital, so the balance sheet is not a side quest.
31.5%
op margin
31.5% operating margin is high for restaurants, and it explains why the stock gets a premium look.
4.3%
yield
4.3% cash back is the type of payout that keeps you waiting even when the stock stalls.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $13.4B (38% of capital)
- net profit margin 15.1% — keeps 15 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 43% — $0.43 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in QSR 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,970.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
QSR missed the Street: $0.25 versus $0.93 expected.
Quarterly consolidated revenue should sit nearer ~$2.3B (order of ¼ of ~$9.4B FY), not $7.0B. The $0.25 vs $0.93 EPS line may be GAAP vs adjusted, a bad consensus pull, or a different period—verify in the filing before trading on it.
~$2.3B
Q revenue (approx.)
$0.25
eps (verify)
vs $0.93
street (verify)
the number that mattered
The headline was an EPS mismatch vs the Street—pair it with the correct GAAP/adjusted definition; the old $7.0B revenue line was not a coherent quarterly total vs ~$9.4B FY.
-
our 2026 forecasts for restaurant brands are about unchanged following likely improvements in 2025.
-
we still look for a nearly 10% rise in per-share profit in the recently completed year, as double-digit top-line advances offset a drop in the operating margin. (the company was set to report fourth-quarter results as this issue went to press.) in the year that recently began, we continue to expect earnings per share to reach $3.95.ongoing expansion of rbi's franchise-driven system is likely to be met by moderate further improvement in the profit margin. The company's largest shareholder recently trimmed its class b stock holdings. in mid-november, rbi announced that 3g capital partners exchanged its non-listed b-class holdings into common shares of rbi. investors may recall that 3g's initial investment in the company occurred in late 2014, when its privately held ownership of burger king was merged with tim hortons to create publicly held restaurant brands international.
-
since the ipo, the investor has steadily reduced its overall stake, though less aggressively, from just over 50% following the transaction.
-
the exchange of some 17.6 million units, or about 15% of their holdings, has no impact on the company's operations.
-
the fund retained its 25%-plus voting power, along with seats on the board.however, we think the significant recent disposal of these equities into liquid common shares may suggest that the company's key ownership group is taking a more cautious approach to the investment. The shares trade around where they did at the time of our mid-november report.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is franchisee margin pressure from labor and food costs.
med
store-level economics crack first
QSR runs a franchise-heavy system. If labor, rent, or ingredient costs squeeze operators, royalties get harder to grow even when the parent company does not run every kitchen itself.
All $9.4B of revenue depends on franchise sales staying healthy enough to support the system.
med
$13.4B of long-term debt limits flexibility
A B+ balance sheet is workable, not luxurious. Debt equal to 38% of capital is manageable until the business needs more room than it has.
More cash diverted to debt service means less room for buybacks, expansion, or protecting the 4.3% yield.
med
wage, health, and advertising rules can squeeze the model
This is a global restaurant business. Minimum wage changes, food rules, and marketing restrictions do not just create paperwork — they can change store profitability.
Even modest pressure matters when net profit margin is 14.1%, not 30%.
med
last year's 35.4% growth sets a hard comparison
Street revenue for 2026 is $10B. That's roughly 6% above today's $9.4B base. If growth settles there or below, the market may keep treating QSR like a bond proxy rather than a growth stock.
The stock already produced just $10,970 from a $10,000 investment over three years. Another stretch of low growth would not get much patience.
If store economics weaken, the pressure shows up fast: slower royalties on $9.4B of revenue, less balance-sheet room against $13.4B of debt, and more scrutiny on the 4.3% dividend yield.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
the step from $3.65 to $3.95 EPS
That is about 8% growth. If quarterly results stop supporting that path, the stock loses its easiest valuation defense.
metric
revenue's path to $10B
Street revenue for 2026 is $10B. That's only about 6% above today's $9.4B, which tells you expectations are measured.
calendar
the next dividend declaration
A 4.3% yield matters because it attracts income investors. The next declaration is a confidence signal, not just a payment date.
risk
debt staying near $13.4B
The business can carry this load. It does not have much margin for a meaningfully heavier one without needing faster growth or tighter capital allocation.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
Momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this could lag other stocks in the next 6–12 months.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a rollercoaster either.
chart momentum
top 5%
Technical score 1 — the chart has been strong even while the longer-term return record looks ordinary.
earnings predictability
80 / 100
Management tends to deliver a narrow range of outcomes. You usually do not get dramatic surprises here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 238 buyers vs. 194 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$58
$95
$67
current price
$77
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $105 (+55% · 15% ann'l return)
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