D-Wave Quantum
QBTS
D-Wave Quantum
Technology Mid Cap Updated Mar 20, 2026

D-Wave did $25 million in annual revenue and the market still values it at about $7 billion.

If you own QBTS, you own a tiny business carrying gigantic expectations.

$19.04
Market cap ~$7B · 52-week range $4–$32
23
Composite
Our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
XVARY Composite Score
23
/ 100

Weak

Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.

Start here if you're new
What it is
D-Wave sells access to quantum computers, the software around them, and the services to help customers use them.
How it gets paid
Last year D-Wave Quantum made $25M in revenue. Quantum cloud services was the main engine at $10M, or 40% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 178.5% last year. Sales grew fast from a small base, with annual revenue up 178.5% to $25 million.
What just happened
Revenue hit $22M, but EPS was still deeply negative at -$1.01.
At a Glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
XVARY composite: 23/100 — weak
-$0.45 fy2027 eps est
$500M fy2029 rev est
N/a operating margin
What They Do
D-Wave sells access to quantum computers, the software around them, and the services to help customers use them.
D-Wave sells both annealing and gate-model quantum systems, while many rivals focus on one approach. That gives your customer more ways to test real use cases before picking a lane. Gross margin was 84.8% in the latest reported period, which means the product is expensive to build once and cheap to sell again.
technology small-cap quantum-computing high-growth speculative
How They Make Money
$25M annual revenue · their business grew +178.5% last year
Quantum cloud services
$10M
Professional services
$7M
Quantum system sales
$6M
Software and support
$2M
The Products That Matter
Quantum cloud access
Leap Quantum Cloud
$25M revenue · +12.6% growth
it's the current business. last year's $25M of revenue grew 12.6%, which is real growth, but still a very small base for a $7B stock.
current revenue
Quantum system sales
annealing systems
$20M deal announced
the $20M system sale to Florida Atlantic University matters because one contract can move the revenue line in a business this small.
lumpy upside
Gate-model expansion
Quantum Circuits acquisition
$550M purchase price
D-Wave paid $300M in stock and $250M in cash in January 2026. That's a company-defining bet when your existing revenue is $25M.
strategic swing
Key Numbers
$500M
2029 revenue goal
The long-range estimate is 20x today's $25 million revenue, so your return depends on hypergrowth showing up fast.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin means profit after running the business. Plain English: D-Wave loses more than $4 for every $1 it sells.
84.8%
gross margin
Gross margin means money left after delivering the product. So what: the product economics look strong if revenue keeps scaling.
$36M
long-term debt
Debt is only 1% of capital, so the balance sheet pressure comes more from losses than from lenders.
Financial Health
C+
Strength
  • balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
  • risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
  • price stability 5 / 100
  • long-term debt $36M (1% of capital)
C+ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total Return vs. Market

You invested $10000 in QBTS 3 years ago → it's now worth $280000.

The index would have given you $14540.

same period. same starting point. QBTS beat the market by $265,460.

source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $22M, but EPS was still deeply negative at -$1.01.
Sales grew fast from a small base, with annual revenue up 178.5% to $25 million. The problem is that growth has not yet translated into bottom-line discipline.
$22M
revenue
-$1.01
eps
84.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $22 million in quarterly revenue, because one quarter almost matched 88% of the prior full year's $25 million.
source: company earnings report, 2026

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What Could Go Wrong

The #1 risk is commercial adoption of quantum annealing and gate-model systems staying slower than the stock price assumes.

∘
Med
Bookings do not convert into durable revenue
more than $30M of bookings in early 2026 is the entire near-term story. If those deals slip, shrink, or stay one-off, the market is left staring at a $25M annual revenue base again.
this would pressure the case for reaching the $45M 2026 revenue estimate and make a $7B market cap harder to defend.
∘
Med
The Quantum Circuits acquisition is very large relative to the business
D-Wave paid $300M in stock and $250M in cash in January 2026. That's a $550M transaction against just $25M of annual revenue. Integration risk is not a side note here. It is the note.
if the deal fails to produce commercial traction, shareholders are left with dilution, cash outlay, and a more complicated story.
∘
Med
Volatility can overwhelm fundamentals in both directions
a 2.0 beta, a 5/100 price stability score, and a 52-week range of $4–$32 tell you this stock does not move gently. When sentiment turns, the chart becomes part of the business model.
you are exposed to large drawdowns even if the long-term quantum thesis stays intact.
with only $25M of annual revenue, one delayed contract, one failed integration step, or one sentiment reversal can hit the story harder than it would at a mature software company.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Whether $30M+ of early 2026 bookings becomes recognized revenue
the market heard the bookings number. next it needs to see revenue move from $25M toward the $45M street estimate.
Calendar
The first post-acquisition quarters
January 2026's $550M Quantum Circuits deal changed the scope of the company. The next few quarters need to show more than strategic ambition.
Risk
Whether big 2026 deals are repeatable or just lumpy
a $20M university system sale and a $10M two-year license deal are meaningful. The question is whether they start a pattern.
Trend
Volatility after the 3-year moonshot
$10,000 turning into $280,000 in three years is the kind of move that attracts momentum money. Momentum money also leaves.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4. in human-speak, analysts think the recent run leaves room for underperformance from here.
risk profile
high risk
stability score 5. That's weaker than about 95% of stocks, which matches the chart's habit of doing cannonballs.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2. The tape still looks strong even while the fundamental base stays small. Welcome to theme-stock investing.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity

institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 226 buyers vs. 160 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.

source: institutional data · 2q2025-4q2025
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$14 $60
$19 Current price
$37 Target midpoint · +94% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+110% · 20% ann'l return)
source: institutional data · analyst targets

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