Start here if you're new
what it is
PayPal moves money between shoppers and merchants, then takes a small cut almost every time.
how it gets paid
Last year Paypal made $33.2B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.3% last year. The number that mattered was 33.8% EPS growth through the first nine months of 2025.
what just happened
PayPal beat estimates, but the real story was earnings leverage: nine-month EPS hit $3.88, up 33.8%, while revenue grew just 4.5%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
21.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 72/100 — average
What they do
PayPal moves money between shoppers and merchants, then takes a small cut almost every time.
PayPal already sits where your money is trying to go. More than 430 million active users completed 26.3 billion transactions in 2024, which means merchants keep it because your customers already know the button. Network effects → more users attract more sellers → so what: leaving means asking millions of buyers to change habits they already use.
How they make money
$33.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.3% last year
total revenue
$33.2B
+4.3%
The products that matter
consumer and merchant payment processing
payments platform
$33.2B revenue · ~15.7% net margin
the revenue table is a single total line here, so the honest answer is that the whole platform matters. It generated $33.2B in revenue last year; the health panel shows ~15.7% net margin in this feed.
entire engine
Key numbers
$82
18-month target
That sits $25.11 above $56.89 today. Plain English: the base case still says the stock is priced for a lot of bad news.
$42B
2028 revenue
That is up from $33.2B today. Plain English: the whole turnaround needs about $8.8B of extra sales to show up.
21.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money invested in the business → so what: PayPal still turns every dollar it uses into strong returns.
11.2x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by earnings → so what: you are paying a low multiple for a business with 26.5% operating margins.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $11.3B (17% of capital)
- net profit margin 15.7% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 32% — $0.32 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PYPL 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,170.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
PayPal beat estimates, but the real story was earnings leverage: nine-month EPS hit $3.88, up 33.8%, while revenue grew just 4.5%.
Last reported earnings beat consensus at about $1.23 versus $1.14 (Yahoo-style rounded print). The first nine months of 2025 got the lift from TPV and profitability, not runaway sales growth.
$8.68B
revenue (Q)
~$1.23
eps (Q)
26.5%
operating margin (feed · verify period)
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was 33.8% EPS growth through the first nine months of 2025, because it showed margins did the heavy lifting while sales rose only 4.5%.
-
paypal holdings probably closed the books on an impressive 2025.
-
through the first nine months, earnings per share soared 33.8%, to $3.88, relative to the $2.90 tally that was posted for the same period the prior year.
-
that was made possible partially by a 4.5% rise in the top line, helped primarily by growth in total payment volume (tpv) and greater interest and fee revenue earned on the loans receivable portfolio.other supporting factors were a decrease in both the effective income tax rate and number of diluted shares outstanding. meanwhile, total operating expenses (which include such categories as technology & development and transaction expense) were only slightly higher during the period. since we saw more of the same in the fourth quarter, the bottom line might have been around $5.10 per share for the full year.
-
that would mark a close-to-30% surge versus the 2024 figure of $3.99.
-
looking at 2026, the company's per-share profits stand to be in the neighborhood of $5.55.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is transaction volume slowing across paypal's checkout and merchant flows.
med
transaction volume slowdown
PayPal gets paid when money moves. If consumer or merchant activity slows, the revenue engine slows with it.
100% of the current $33.2B revenue base depends on payment activity holding up.
med
fee pressure from alternative checkout options
Apple Pay, Block, and the card networks all want a bigger share of digital checkout. That matters because PayPal's 15.3% net margin leaves room to compress.
Even a modest squeeze on take rate would hit earnings faster than it hits revenue.
med
execution risk in restoring market trust
A stock down to $56.89 despite $33.2B in revenue and 35.4% growth is telling you the market wants cleaner proof. Three straight quarters of institutional selling say the same thing louder.
If 2026 misses the $35B revenue estimate or the $5.55 EPS estimate, the rerating case weakens fast.
a pullback in payment activity would hit the whole income statement because all $33.2B of current revenue rides on transactions clearing and fees holding.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
setup
11.2x earnings versus 35.4% growth
That gap is the whole story. If growth holds anywhere near that level, the stock looks mispriced. If it fades, the multiple was a warning label.
next check
the path from $5.10 to $5.55 EPS
The market already has the 2026 number. Your job is to watch whether reported earnings are actually moving toward it.
risk
transaction volume and fee pressure
PayPal is a scaled processor, but not an untouchable one. If checkout competition pushes pricing down, margins feel it quickly.
flow
whether institutional selling stops
744 buyers versus 915 sellers in 3q2025 is not panic. It is sustained skepticism. You want to see that trend stabilize before calling this a clean turnaround.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think PYPL has better near-term upside than most stocks.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means middle of the pack. Not especially safe. Not especially dangerous.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is not sending a dramatic signal yet. This is a fundamentals argument first.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
earnings are less dependable here than in the cleanest large-cap compounders. Expect more debate after each print.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 744 buyers vs. 915 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.7B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$49
$114
$57
current price
$82
target midpoint · +44% from current · 3-5yr high: $135 (+135% · 25% ann'l return)
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