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what it is
ProPetro supplies the crews and equipment that crack shale wells open, mostly for Permian oil producers.
how it gets paid
Last year Propetro made $1.3B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 12.1% last year. Management’s strategy of upgrading the company’s fleet to dual gas/diesel-fueled and electric-driven assets has paid off.
what just happened
The latest print mattered because EPS came in at $0.01 versus a -$0.07 estimate.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
30.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
ProPetro supplies the crews and equipment that crack shale wells open, mostly for Permian oil producers.
If your well plan slips by a week, you do not want to hunt for another fracking crew in the Permian. ProPetro already has 2.66 million horsepower in the field, which means scale (lots of working equipment) → faster job coverage → your producer customer gets wells completed on time. The quiet part out loud: when activity is weak, the big fleet still gets the phone call first.
How they make money
$1.3B
annual revenue · revenue declined -12.1% last year
total revenue
$1.3B
12.1%
The products that matter
pressure pumping for oil and gas wells
Hydraulic Fracturing Services
inside the $1.3B revenue base
this is the core business inside the $1.3B revenue base, and it rises and falls with completion activity in the permian.
core driver
wireline and completion support
Wireline Services
no separate revenue disclosed
management doesn't break this out separately here, which tells you the investment case still sits inside one $1.3B service platform rather than a diversified portfolio.
adjacent service
cementing and wet-sand logistics
Cementing and Wet-Sand Services
supports the same customer base
these offerings matter operationally, but the market still values PUMP off the same few numbers: $1.3B revenue last year, $294M in the latest quarter, and a $1B revenue estimate for fy2026.
supporting revenue
Key numbers
0.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: ProPetro has almost no room for mistakes.
$1.3B
annual revenue
Revenue → total sales → so what: this is a real business, but sales fell 12.1% vs. prior year in EDGAR data.
59%
top customers
Customer concentration → sales tied to a few buyers → so what: a handful of Permian operators can yank a big chunk of revenue.
2.66M
fleet horsepower
Fleet capacity → how much work the company can handle → so what: scale is the main reason customers call ProPetro at all.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $87M (8% of capital)
- net profit margin 6.1% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PUMP 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,650.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The latest print mattered because EPS came in at $0.01 versus a -$0.07 estimate.
That beat does not erase the bigger problem. Full-year 2025 EPS in is -$0.10, and annual revenue in EDGAR fell 12.1% to $1.3B.
$325M
revenue
$0.01
eps
0.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the $0.08 EPS beat versus expectations, because expectations for this business are already on the floor.
-
propetro is dealing with a tough end market.
-
u.s. oil & gas exploration & production (e&p) companies have cut back on activity, given soft prices for crude.producers of oil in the middle east are keeping output elevated, hurting the global supply/demand balance.
-
another negative influence is import tariffs, which have raised the cost of metals and narrowed the margins of the e&ps.
-
early last year, nearly 100 fracking fleets were in operation in the permian basin.
-
in the second half of 2025, propetro estimated only 70 fleets were active.management’s strategy of upgrading the company’s fleet to dual gas/diesel-fueled and electric-driven assets has paid off.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is permian completion activity staying closer to 70 fleets than 100.
high
permian activity does not recover
propetro flagged active permian fleets falling from nearly 100 to about 70 in the second half of 2025. if that number stays depressed, demand for pressure pumping stays depressed too.
this is the cleanest path to the $1B fy2026 revenue estimate becoming reality — or worse.
high
customer spending stays tied to weak crude prices
management already pointed to soft crude prices and lower e&p activity. you are one step removed from the commodity, not insulated from it.
100% of the $1.3B revenue base depends on customers continuing to spend on well completions.
med
single-business concentration
there is no second growth engine here. hydraulic fracturing and related completion services are the business.
when the core service weakens, the whole income statement weakens with it.
med
negative earnings linger longer than expected
the current fy2026 estimate is -$0.10 EPS. a cyclical stock can look cheap for a long time when earnings power keeps moving down.
if quarterly revenue remains around $294M and EPS stays negative, the recovery thesis keeps slipping out.
if activity stays near 70 fleets and fy2026 revenue lands around $1B, you are looking at a business roughly 23% smaller than last year's $1.3B base.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
permian fleet count
the key trend is whether activity moves back toward nearly 100 fleets or stays closer to 70. that gap explains most of the stock.
metric
quarterly revenue above $294M
$294M is the latest run-rate. you want to see that number improve if the $1B full-year estimate is too pessimistic.
risk
customer budgets and crude sentiment
soft oil prices already pushed e&p customers to cut activity. if that backdrop holds, service pricing usually does not get kinder.
cal
next earnings for proof of a turn
the next report needs more than commentary. watch for positive EPS and evidence that fleet utilization is improving, not just hoped for.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
timeliness score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock can outperform over the next year even though the underlying business still looks cyclical and messy.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — safer than only 20% of stocks. translation: bigger swings are part of the package.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart has improved faster than the fundamentals. welcome to cyclical stocks.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
analysts do not trust the earnings stream to be smooth. neither should you.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 94 buyers vs. 132 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 88.9M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$3
$14
$9
current price
$9
target midpoint · 4% from current · 3-5yr high: $18 (+90% · 18% ann'l return)
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