Start here if you're new
what it is
PubMatic runs software that helps websites and apps sell digital ad space in real time.
how it gets paid
Last year Pubmatic made $283M in revenue. open internet display was the main engine at $113M, or 40% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 2.9% last year. The number that mattered was -$0.45 EPS because revenue growth means less if the quarter still loses money.
what just happened
Revenue was $203M, but EPS fell to -$0.45, so scale did not turn into profit.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
4.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.23 fy2024 eps est
$291M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 39/100 — weak
What they do
PubMatic runs software that helps websites and apps sell digital ad space in real time.
PubMatic owns its own cloud infrastructure, which means it does not have to rent as much computing muscle from someone else. You feel that in gross margin: 61.7% in the latest filing on $283 million of annual revenue. Programmatic advertising (automated ad buying) → software decides who gets the ad slot → so what: faster auctions and better economics can keep publishers on the platform.
How they make money
$283M
annual revenue · their business grew -2.9% last year
open internet display
$113M
5.0%
video and ctv
$99M
+4.0%
mobile app
$71M
6.0%
The products that matter
publisher auction infrastructure
OpenWrap
core platform · inside the $283M business
it is the core publisher-facing auction layer inside a $283M revenue company. if OpenWrap loses relevance, the rest of the story gets theoretical fast.
core workflow
ai-powered deal automation
AgenticOS
250+ agentic deals
management says it drove 250+ agentic deals in FY2025. that's a real adoption signal, but you still need it to move the revenue line on a $283M base.
early proof
connected tv demand
CTV
50%+ growth
ctv grew more than 50%. that's the fastest part of the business and the cleanest argument for why management thinks growth reaccelerates next.
growth engine
Key numbers
6.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: PubMatic is still losing money on core operations.
$39M
long-term debt
Long-term debt is 9% of capital, so the balance sheet is not the main problem. The main problem is that the business posted a -6.1% operating margin.
4.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money tied up in the business → so what: 4.5% is weak for software.
$0.23
2024 EPS
Full-year EPS was $0.23 by the 2024 estimate, up from $0.16 in 2023, which says profitability is lumpy rather than gone.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $39M (9% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for PUBM right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue was $203M, but EPS fell to -$0.45, so scale did not turn into profit.
That contrast is the whole story. Revenue surged 199% vs. prior year in the provided quarterly data, while EPS was -$0.45 — vs. prior year % on EPS is not a clean read here; use the filing for prior vs current EPS.
$203M
revenue
$0.45
eps
61.7%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was -$0.45 EPS because revenue growth means less if the quarter still loses money.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The top threat is the second-half 2026 growth rebound failing to show up.
med
The rebound is still a promise
Revenue fell 2.9% last year to $283M. Management is asking you to look past that and underwrite double-digit growth in the second half of 2026.
If that acceleration does not happen, the stock stops being a turnaround setup and starts looking like a shrinking ad-tech business priced at $381M.
med
Insider selling weakens the message
CEO Rajeev Goel sold 44,000 shares at $8.96. That does not prove anything on its own, but it is a rough optic when the company is selling a rebound story.
Turnarounds depend on belief. Management selling stock near these levels does not help you build it.
med
Cash flow looks better than returns
PubMatic produced $46.2M in free cash flow, but return on capital was just 4.5%. The business is generating cash without showing strong capital efficiency.
That gap can persist for a while. It also means one good cash-flow year is not enough to prove the model is compounding.
Miss the rebound, and you are left with a $283M revenue company that already shrank 2.9% last year and still posted a $14.5M GAAP loss.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
thesis
second-half 2026 growth
Management is guiding you toward double-digit revenue growth in the back half of 2026. That is the bull case in one line.
calendar
Q1 2026 revenue guide
The company guided to $58M–$60M in Q1 revenue. The next print matters because it sets the credibility of the rebound path.
metric
free cash flow versus gaap earnings
A $46.2M free-cash-flow result alongside a $14.5M GAAP loss is unusual enough to keep tracking. You want that gap explained by durable operations, not timing noise.
risk
insider selling follow-through
One sale is a data point. More selling while the turnaround thesis is still unproven would make the market read management's confidence differently.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
Low predictability means quarterly results can move around. In human-speak, analysts do not view this as a smooth, easy-to-model business.
risk rank
4
That means it is safer than only about 20% of stocks in this framework. You are not buying stability here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for PUBM is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$9
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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