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what it is
Protagonist makes peptide drugs, which means lab-built medicines, for psoriasis and rare blood disorders.
how it gets paid
Last year Protagonist Therap made $46M in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 89.4% last year. Revenue jumped 719% vs. prior year, while annual revenue still came in at $46M, down 89.4%.
what just happened
Revenue hit $39M, but EPS fell to -$1.35 as PTGX kept spending ahead of approvals.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
40.8% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
$4.23 fy2024 eps est
$434M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Protagonist makes peptide drugs, which means lab-built medicines, for psoriasis and rare blood disorders.
PTGX wins with two late-stage peptides and one big partner. Icotrokinra is licensed to Janssen, which means PTGX gets Big Pharma muscle without building a giant sales force, and the company has just 126 employees. That is tiny versus the size of the markets it is chasing, so if either drug works, your upside comes from assets that already made it to Phase 3.
How they make money
$46M
annual revenue · revenue declined -89.4% last year
total revenue
$46M
89.4%
The products that matter
nda under fda review
Rusfertide
decision expected in 2026
At a $6B market cap and 0% product revenue, this is the asset carrying the nearest path to commercialization. If it clears review, the story changes fast. If it does not, the valuation has a problem.
near-term catalyst
phase 3 program
Icotrokinra
primary endpoint enrollment expected in 2026
This is the second pillar of the thesis. Until that 2026 enrollment milestone lands, it remains future value rather than current revenue.
pipeline depth
Key numbers
$434M
2024 revenue est.
That is the revenue number the bull case is leaning on, and it sits miles above the current $46M annual base.
$4.23
2024 EPS est.
PTGX showed reported profitability on this view, which is rare for a clinical-stage biotech.
-343.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → what is left after running the business → so what: PTGX still burns far more than it sells.
$8M
long-term debt
Debt is tiny versus a roughly $6B market cap, so the balance sheet is not the main problem here.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $8M (0% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for PTGX right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $39M, but EPS fell to -$1.35 as PTGX kept spending ahead of approvals.
Quarterly revenue jumped 719% vs. prior year, while annual revenue still came in at $46M, down 89.4%. Plain English: milestone payments can make one quarter look rich while the full year still looks thin.
$39M
revenue
$1.35
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
$39M matters because it shows partner and milestone revenue can arrive in chunks, but you still need approvals to make it durable.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is an adverse FDA outcome for rusfertide. With 0% product revenue and a $6B valuation, this company is still being priced on what approval could create.
med
Rusfertide does not get approved
This is the nearest path from science project to commercial company. If the FDA blocks that path, PTGX is left with a premium valuation and no product revenue to defend it.
Impact: it would directly hit the only visible bridge between today's $0 product revenue and tomorrow's drug sales.
med
Cash burn stays high for longer
PTGX posted a $130.1M net loss in 2025 and a -283% profit margin. Low debt helps, but losses of that size eventually force harder capital-allocation decisions if commercial revenue keeps slipping out.
Impact: a business losing $130.1M a year has less room for timeline slippage than the valuation implies.
med
Icotrokinra timeline moves right
Primary endpoint enrollment completion is expected in 2026. If that slips, PTGX goes back to looking like a one-catalyst stock, which is a much less forgiving setup.
Impact: timeline delays would leave more of the $6B equity story resting on a single program.
A negative rusfertide outcome would pressure the only near-term route out of 0% product revenue, while a $130.1M annual loss keeps execution risk from being theoretical.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
regulatory
rusfertide fda decision
This is the event the stock is trading around. Approval would create the first real path from 0% product revenue to commercial sales.
trial calendar
icotrokinra phase 3 enrollment
Primary endpoint enrollment completion is expected in 2026. Hitting that date matters because the market needs a second late-stage pillar.
next quarter
q1 2026 revenue and loss
Analysts expect about $14.9M in revenue and a loss of $0.54 per share. You want the burn rate moving in the right direction before approval risk resolves.
sentiment
price-target revisions
The median target is $111, with estimates ranging from $95 to $118 across 19 analysts. Watch the spread, not just the midpoint.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
15 / 100
Milestone-driven biotech earnings are messy. In human-speak, analysts do not have a stable operating model to lean on.
sell-side target spread
$95–$118
That range is tight for biotech only if the catalyst goes well. The targets are clustered because everyone is underwriting the same event.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for PTGX is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$95
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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