Start here if you're new
what it is
Phillips 66 turns crude oil into fuel, moves it, sells it, and makes chemicals and renewable products.
how it gets paid
Last year Psx made $132.4B in revenue. Refining was the main engine at $66.2B, or 50% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.5% last year. Please be aware that starting in 2025, our figures are adjusted to exclude such items as impairment charges, gains on asset dispositions, and legal settlements.
what just happened
Phillips 66 printed $98.3B of revenue and $3.66 in EPS.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
24.5x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 63/100 — average
What they do
Phillips 66 turns crude oil into fuel, moves it, sells it, and makes chemicals and renewable products.
Phillips 66 runs 11 refineries and owns 50% of CPChem. That scale gives you exposure to fuel, chemicals, and transport in one ticker. Leaving the system is hard because the business is already built around moving huge volumes through its own network.
How they make money
$132.4B
annual revenue · their business grew -7.5% last year
Refining
$66.2B
Marketing and Specialties
$31.4B
Midstream
$14.0B
Chemicals
$13.2B
Renewable Fuels
$7.6B
The products that matter
turns crude into fuels
Refining
$132.4B · core revenue engine
it produced $132.4B of revenue last year inside a $155B company. when this segment swings, the whole story swings with it.
2.3% net margin
moves and stores fuels
Midstream
revenue not shown here
this is part of the integration case, but this page does not give a segment revenue number. what you do know is the company still carries $19.2B of long-term debt, so steadier cash flow matters.
A balance sheet
sells finished fuels
Marketing & Specialties
revenue not shown here
this segment helps complete the integrated model, but the disclosed numbers here stop short of telling you how much profit it carries. in a business earning 8.5% on capital, that missing detail matters.
watch disclosure
Key numbers
$157.5
share price
You are paying 10% above the $143 target and 11% below the $175 average target.
3.3%
dividend yield
The payout pays you to wait, but it does not erase the gap between price and target.
8.0%
operating margin
This is slim for a $64B energy company, so a small spread change can move earnings fast.
10.0%
return on capital
You get 10 cents of operating profit for every dollar tied up in the business.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $19.2B (23% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.6% — keeps 3 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 15% — $0.15 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PSX 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,210.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Phillips 66 printed $98.3B of revenue and $3.66 in EPS.
Revenue rose 185% vs. prior year, and EPS jumped 1044% vs. prior year. That kind of swing is what happens when downstream energy volumes and margins move together.
$33.1B
revenue
$3.66
eps
12.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $3.66 EPS print mattered most because this stock trades on profit swings, not just sales.
-
we are optimistic about phillips 66's bottom-line performance in 2026.that is based partly on our assumption that business conditions cooperate (e.g., refining margins improve).
-
repurchases of common stock ought to help, too.
-
so, at this juncture, earnings per share will end up in the vicinity of $7.50.
-
that would show a 16% advance relative to 2025's $6.44 figure.
-
turning to 2027, profits may rise an additional 11%, to $8.30 per share, assuming further expansion of operating margins.please be aware that starting in 2025, our figures are adjusted to exclude such items as impairment charges, gains on asset dispositions, and legal settlements.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is refining margin compression — when you keep only 2.3 cents of each revenue dollar, spreads do not have to move much to hurt.
high
refining margin compression
refining generated $132.4B of revenue on this page. if crack spreads tighten, the core engine gets hit first.
the company-wide net margin is just 2.3%, so there is not much cushion.
med
commodity input and product price swings
PSX is integrated, but it still lives inside the oil and fuel price cycle. that can make earnings jump around fast.
5/100 earnings predictability is the proof.
med
energy transition pressure
a long-duration shift away from refined fuels matters more when your disclosed segment engine is still refining.
this is a $155B fuel-heavy business, not a transition story yet.
low
regulatory and environmental costs
refiners do not get the luxury of ignoring permits, standards, and cleanup obligations.
with $19.2B of long-term debt, extra cost creep matters even with an A balance sheet.
the combined risk picture is simple: a $155B revenue base and a 2.3% net margin leave little room for bad refining economics.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
refining margins and crack spreads
this is still the main scorecard. $132.4B of disclosed segment revenue says the refining engine remains the number to watch.
trend
price versus the $143 midpoint target
the stock at $157.50 already sits above the published 3–5 year midpoint. either future numbers improve, or valuation does the work in reverse.
calendar
next earnings quality
after a 15.4% estimate beat, the next quarter matters more. you want to see whether $2.47 EPS was a clean signal or just a cyclical bounce.
risk
capital returns versus balance-sheet discipline
the 3.3% dividend is attractive. with $19.2B of long-term debt, you still want payouts to stay matched to real cash generation.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts see a stock moving more or less with the pack.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical market risk. not a bunker stock, not a grenade.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2. analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
earnings are hard to model here. translation: expect more noise than precision.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 816 buyers vs. 734 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$87
$198
$158
current price
$143
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $210 (+35% · 10% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
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