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what it is
Permian Resources drills for oil and natural gas in the Permian Basin and sells whatever the market will pay.
how it gets paid
Last year Permian Resources made $5.1B in revenue. natural gas liquids and other hydrocarbons was the main engine at $3.27B, or 64% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.3% last year. The 36.36% EPS beat mattered most because it showed volume strength offset weaker oil pricing better than analysts expected.
what just happened
PR put up $3.9B in quarterly revenue and still beat EPS estimates, even with lower oil prices pushing on margins.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
5.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.5% return on capital — reasonable for a large upstream
xvary composite: 42/100 — below average
What they do
Permian Resources drills for oil and natural gas in the Permian Basin and sells whatever the market will pay.
This business wins on rock and scale. It held 1.027 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves at 12/31/24, and just 461 employees run the machine. Haley wells were 45% more productive in the September quarter, which is engineer-speak for better wells → more output from the same dirt → more cash when prices cooperate.
How they make money
$5.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +1.3% last year
oil sales
$1.59B
natural gas sales
$0.04B
natural gas liquids and other hydrocarbons
$3.27B
other revenue
$0.20B
The products that matter
drills and sells hydrocarbons
Oil and Gas Production
$5.1B revenue
it is the entire $5.1B business, with oil production guided at 185k–190k barrels per day and no second engine if pricing weakens. That's simplicity. It's also concentration.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
5.7%
dividend yield
You are getting paid while you wait, and 5.7% is rich for a stock trading at 10.0x earnings.
10.0x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → what investors pay for each dollar of profit → you are not paying a luxury multiple here.
1.027B BOE
proved reserves
Reserves are future inventory. A 1.027 billion BOE base means this is not a one-hit well story.
28.9%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → nearly 29 cents of every sales dollar stayed after operating costs.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $3.5B (23% of capital)
- net profit margin 31.0% — keeps 31 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PR 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,270.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
PR put up $3.9B in quarterly revenue and still beat EPS estimates, even with lower oil prices pushing on margins.
EDGAR shows latest-quarter revenue of $3.9B, up 195% vs. prior year—that vs. prior year percent is dominated by a distorted prior-year base (deal/merger accounting), not “the business got 3× bigger in one year.” Consensus EPS of $0.45 versus a ~$0.33 estimate is a 36.36% beat; production was strong but oil pricing weakened in the quarter.
$3.9B
revenue
$0.45
eps
28.9%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The 36.36% EPS beat mattered most because it showed volume strength offset weaker oil pricing better than analysts expected.
-
we think permian resources’ (pr) fourth-quarter operating results will be a mixed bag.
-
the company probably finished the year with strong production of both oil and natural gas.during its third-quarter earnings conference call, management guided december-period oil production of between 185,000 barrels per day (bbls/d)-190,000 bbls/d. the midpoint for this range is just slightly above the 186,900 bbls/d produced during the third quarter, and given the solid gains the company has experienced this year, we think pr likely produced near the high end of this range.
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during the september period, the haley development wells, which came on line late in the quarter were 45% more productive than anticipated, and we think it’s likely that the peak production from those wells weren’t hit until later in the fourth quarter.
-
even so, oil pricing declined sharply during the fourth period, which likely put pressure on the top line and margins.
-
all told, while we have raised our estimate by a penny to $0.34 a share, much of this is due to a drop in the tax rate (see below), which likely saved them $0.04 a share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
PR is simple in a way the market never lets you forget: all $5.1B of revenue comes from one upstream business, and the shares carry a 15 / 100 price stability score. If you held through this kind of setup before, you already know the stock can feel cheap right up until oil says otherwise.
med
commodity price sensitivity
Permian Resources sells what it produces. That means oil and gas prices flow straight into revenue, margins, and sentiment.
This exposure touches essentially all $5.1B of revenue. A 10.0x multiple only looks cheap if the earnings base holds up.
med
well performance and production execution
The case for PR assumes output stays around the 185k–190k barrels per day guide. Wells can outperform, like Haley, and they can also cool off.
If volumes slip, you do not have another segment waiting to bail out the quarter. The same single-business story that keeps the model clean also makes misses louder.
med
balance sheet meets volatility
A B+ balance sheet is fine. Pair it with $3.5B of long-term debt and a 15 / 100 price stability score, and the equity still behaves like cyclical risk.
You are not just underwriting operations. You are underwriting how the market prices oil exposure during the next drawdown.
The business kept a 20.4% net margin last year. The stock still trades like a commodity producer, because that is exactly what it is.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
oil production vs. the 185k–190k guide
If production keeps landing near the top end, the operating case stays intact. If it slips, the cheap multiple will stop looking like a bargain.
trend
oil pricing during the next quarter
The business can drill well and still disappoint you if crude prices roll over. That is the entire macro overlay here.
calendar
whether the tax benefit repeats
Roughly $0.04 of the latest quarter's EPS may have come from a lower tax rate. Watch the next report to see what earnings look like without that assist.
risk
haley well follow-through
A 45% upside surprise in well productivity is great. You want to know whether that was repeatable geology or one very good chapter.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock has more near-term downside risk than upside momentum.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this one swings more than most stocks, which is normal for energy and still uncomfortable when you own it.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not flashing a major signal. The commodity tape matters more than the squiggles right now.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
predictability this low means estimates move around. Translation: quarterly numbers can surprise you in both directions.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 292 buyers vs. 240 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.7B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$11
$28
$14
current price
$20
target midpoint · +43% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+80% · 20% ann'l return)
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