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what it is
Pilgrim’s Pride raises, processes, and sells chicken to grocery stores, restaurants, and distributors around the world.
how it gets paid
Last year S Pride made $18.5B in revenue. fresh chicken was the main engine at $7.4B, or 40% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.5% last year. Favorable feed cost trends, attractive pricing, and production efficiencies drove margin expansion over the last two years.
what just happened
The latest quarter landed with a thud: EPS came in at $0.37 versus a $0.72 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.6x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
Pilgrim’s Pride raises, processes, and sells chicken to grocery stores, restaurants, and distributors around the world.
Scale matters when your product is cold, bulky, and perishable. Pilgrim’s Pride sells into about 118 countries and generated $18.5 billion of revenue, which helps keep plants full and trucks moving. You do not win this business with branding first; you win by spreading fixed costs across more birds and more customers.
How they make money
$18.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.5% last year
fresh chicken
$7.4B
+2.0%
prepared and value-added chicken
$4.8B
+5.0%
frozen chicken
$3.9B
+1.0%
export and other chicken products
$2.4B
+6.0%
The products that matter
processes and sells chicken
Chicken production
$18.5B revenue
This is the entire $18.5B business, and it grew 32.3% last year. The investment question is not product mix. It is whether margins hold as the poultry cycle cools.
entire business
Key numbers
7.6x
trailing p/e
Trailing P/E → stock price versus last year’s profit → you are paying $7.60 for each $1 of trailing earnings, based on EPS of $5.25.
10.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → every $100 of sales leaves $10 before interest and taxes.
29%
top customers
Customer concentration → sales tied to a few buyers → two customers made up 29% of 2024 revenue, or about $5.4B on an $18.5B base.
11.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → Pilgrim’s Pride generates $11.50 for every $100 tied up in operations.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $3.1B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.0% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PPC 3 years ago → it's now worth $19,680.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The latest quarter landed with a thud: EPS came in at $0.37 versus a $0.72 estimate.
That is a 48.61% miss. The bigger issue is trend, not drama: quarterly EPS slid from $1.52 in Q3 2025 to $0.72 in Q4 2025, and analysts expect more pressure after peak poultry margins.
$14.0B
revenue
$0.37
eps
13.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 48.61% EPS miss, because cheap stocks stop looking cheap when profit estimates keep dropping.
-
pilgrim’s pride likely posted sharply lower earnings in the final quarter of 2025.
-
we estimate that december-period earnings tumbled more than 45%, versus the september-interim’s roughly 5% decline, which marked the first negative comparison since 2023.
-
further declines should continue this year, as the industry comes off a period of peak profitability reached in the first half of 2025.
-
our 2026 estimate has been lowered by $0.35 per share.favorable feed cost trends, attractive pricing, and production efficiencies drove margin expansion over the last two years.
-
admittedly, we envisioned a steeper and more abrupt earnings decline in 2025, but past strategic measures have helped prop up profits.years ago, management prioritized preferred customers and sought arrangements with valued retailers to reduce cyclicality.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is chicken pricing and feed-cost normalization.
med
chicken pricing and feed-cost normalization
The last two years were helped by favorable feed costs, attractive pricing, and production efficiencies. If those tailwinds fade together, profits do not have much cushion.
At a 5.7% net margin on $18.5B in revenue, small cost or pricing moves can wipe out a lot of earnings.
med
retailer and private-label pressure
This is a commodity aisle. When consumers trade down, retailer relationships help, but price usually wins the argument.
That pressure shows up fast in a business already earning only about 6 cents on each sales dollar.
med
earnings estimate drift
Q4 EPS landed at $0.72, and the 2026 EPS estimate was cut by $0.35 to $4.35. If analysts keep moving that number down, the stock will keep looking cheap for a reason.
The debate is not whether 7.6x earnings is low. It is whether the earnings base under that multiple is still falling.
A downturn here touches the entire $18.5B revenue base, and the 5.7% margin tells you there is not much room for error.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
5.7% net margin
That is the fulcrum. On an $18.5B revenue base, a small margin move changes the whole story.
estimate trend
2026 EPS now at $4.35
The number was cut by $0.35. If it keeps slipping, the valuation argument weakens with it.
risk
pricing versus private labels
Retailer relationships help, but this is still a price-led category. Trade-down behavior shows up fast.
next print
whether $0.72 was a floor
The next quarterly report needs to answer one question: was Q4 a reset, or the start of a lower earnings run-rate.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock acting normal, not breaking out.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk for a listed stock. Not a bunker. Not a disaster.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — analysts see weaker price action than the market from here.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
Forecasting profits here is hard because chicken cycles do not send calendar invites.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 221 buyers vs. 206 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 53.0M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$33
$77
$40
current price
$55
target midpoint · +38% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+50% · 11% ann'l return)
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